Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 79.511| EURUSD 1.24959 | EURJPY 99.35| AUDUSD 1.00656 | NZDUSD 0.79234 | USDCAD 1.02387 | EURCHF 1.20105 | USDCHF 0.96118 | GBPUSD 1.56423 | EURGBP 0.79881 |
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Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: While Spain’s bond auctions continued to be well received at the rates the short term debt is being offered I’d expect nothing other, how long this is sustainable depends on Europe’s ability to bail them out in the future one supposes, whichever way the Euro reacted poorly to the auction and moved lower below the 1.2500 level with 1.2480 level holding for the first attempt, we moved back up above 1.2500 again with a small short squeeze before gradually moving lower and pushing through the 1.2480 level triggering weak stops down to below 1.2460, rumours that the German coalition proposed changing the ESM law saw the market move back to 1.2500 but with rumours that Merkel had said there will be no shared liability for debt as long as she lives dumped the market off again to just above 1.2440 however, one assumes this was tongue in cheek comment, given the day’s range and the volatility one would have suspected more volume than we actually did, again overall the amount going through was sub summer numbers.
·        GBP: Asia saw cable move up to test the 1.5600 level again, London cane in and blew right through it even the UK PBSR number couldn’t dent the movement with EURGBP being sold aggressively, taking it from the Asian highs of 0.8038 steadily lower until the London opening when real selling of Euro’s kicked in the cross stayed around the lows of 0.7986 for most of the NYK session on what some saw as safe haven movements. Cable moved to test above 1.5640 on the initial move dropped on the Shiller number in NYK then rallied back over the course of the session to the 1.5640 level again.
·        JPY: The USDJPY has become stuck in a 50 tick range, with EURJPY selling dropping hard forced the USDJPY lower on the London opening however, it failed to follow through and moved from it’s lows of 79.24 back to the 79.50 level to range there during NYK.
·        AUD: The usual link between the EUR and AUD was broken EURAUD cross selling was seen from macro types however, the link just wasn’t there today and AUD remained fairly well bid throughout the session gaining only small but moving slowly up from the parity level to 1.0080 before running out of steam.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y May A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â
02:00Â Â Â Â CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Conference Board Leading Index M/M May A 1.10% | C Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80% | P 0.90%
06:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator May A 1.05 | C 1.41 | P 1.37
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Sentiment Jul A 5.8 | C 5.6 | P 5.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) May A 15.6B | C 14.0B | P -18.8B | R -19.9B
13:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Apr A -1.90% | C -2.00% | P -2.60%Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Jun A 62 | C 64 | P 64.9Â Â Â
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For today
USDJPY:
Topside: 79.60-79.95 small offers 80.10-80.45 light offers
Downside: 78.90-79.20 light 2-way 78.55-78.90 small bids EURUSD:
Topside: 1.2505-1.2530 light mixed 1.2530-1.2565 good scaled buy stops
Downside: 1.2420-1.2450 light sell stop bias 1.2380-1.2410 large scaled sell stops
EURJPY:
Topside: 99.40-99.70 small offers 99.75-100.00 light buy stops
Downside: 98.30-98.60 small sell stops
AUDUSD:
Topside: 1.0075-1.0100 small buy stops 1.0105-1.0135 decent buy stops 1.0140-1.0175 light 2-way interestÂ
Downside: 1.0000-1.0040 light bids 0.9970-1.0000 small scaled bids
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22:45Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) May A 301M | C 300M | P 355M | R 335MÂ
JPY:
Giant Japan pension fund to pick managers for foreign stocks
KRW/JPY:
South Korea, Japan to Sign First Military Pact – Report
CNY/CNH:
China unveils new policies for Hong Kong Xinhua
CNY:
Bank of China says on guard against property risk
AUD:
Australia Expects Record Resource Export Earnings
NZD:
New Zealand’s May Trade Surplus Narrows, But Beats Expectations
RBNZ: NZ Economic Prospects Dependent on Funding, Exports and Rebuild
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·        EUR: Early trading was lower with nothing to change its direction from yesterday moving steadily down to the 1.2480 level and holding, before moving up as EURGBP went bid triggering some minor stops Euro’s again managed to move to 1.2500 level before holding into London.
·        GBP: Talk of QE in the near term surfaced and amounts of 75bln mentioned in the TSC testimony Cable moved lower down to 1.5624 but mostly through EURGBP cross buying, otherwise 20 ticks on the wide covered the range.
·        JPY: On the wide 79.35-79.55 was all we had early fixing supply pushed it lower and then we spent the rest of the session moving it back higher again a lack of news and data leaves the market now trapped between importer bids and possible comments if we move lower by the BoJ.
·        AUD: As with the rest of the market Oz did very little moving lower on AUDJPY selling into the fixing, before rising back higher against the USD over the remainder of the session from 1.0040 we moved up to 1.0069 before trading sideways into the London session.
·        Overall: Like any other day this week very slow going with very little volume going through as the market decides which way it should jump or whether it’s worth putting the brakes on until Europe can come up with a cohesive plan.
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Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P Timings GMT
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Mortgage Approvals May C 32.8K | P 32.4K
10:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Reported Sales Jun C 15 | P 21Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Jun (P) C 0.00% | P -0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Jun (P) C 1.80% | P 1.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders May C 0.50% | P 0.20%Â Â Â
12:30    USD      Durables Ex Transportation May              C 0.70% | P -0.60%        Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M May C 1.30% | P -5.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories C Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.7M | P 2.9M
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Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.55 | 79.36
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25085 | 1.24795
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 99.43 | 99.06
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0070 | 1.004
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7916 | 0.789
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0249 | 1.0237
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2011 | 1.20101
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9623 | 0.9603
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5641 | 1.5624
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7997 | 0.79865
Good luck
Andy