Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close and Asian open
USDJPY 79.194 79.23-79.29 | EURUSD 1.22474 1.2252-58 | EURJPY 97.007 97.07-97.19 | AUDUSD 1.02284 1.0240-1.0243 | NZDUSD 0.79601 0.7955-0.7970 | USDCAD 1.01401 1.0135-1.0152 | EURCHF 1.2010 1.2010-1.2011 | USDCHF 0.98053 0.9797-0.9821 | GBPUSD 1.55736 1.5556-1.5580 | EURGBP 0.78638 0.7863-0.7873 |
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Weekend news
EUR: Spain’s Bank Aid Program May Run Until 2028, Spiegel Says
EUR: Greeks Favour Renegotiation of Loan Even at Risk of Euro Exit
EUR: Loans Moratorium Allows Italian Businesses to Keep $4.4 Billion
EUR: Regling Says States Could Avoid Bank-Rescue Liability, Welt Says
EUR: Weidmann Says Weaker Euro-Area Outlook, Cheaper Oil Justify Cut
EUR: Aiding Italy on Borrowing Costs Isn’t Justified, Weidmann Says
EUR: CDU’s Kauder Rules Out German Tax Increase, Welt am Sonntag Says
EUR: Germany’s Stark Opposes ECB as Bank Supervisor, Wiwo Reports
CNY: Xinhua: Premier Wen Warns China Economic Rebound Not Yet Stable
CNY: China Must Stimulate Domestic Consumption, Vice Premier Li Says
CNY: Xinhua: SAFE Official Says Must Focus on Financial Stability
CNY: China to Provide 32 Billion Yuan for Rural Homes, Xinhua Says
CNY: China Jan.-June Land-Sales Revenue Drops 27.5%, Xinhua Reports
CNY: China to Promote Yuan in Africa Trade and Investment, Daily Says
JPY: Japan May Ease Sales Tax on Disaster Victims’ Home Buys: Nikkei
JPY: Record Rains Leave 22 Dead in Southwest Japan LandslidesÂ
JPY/CNY: Japan’s China Envoy Returns to Tokyo for Isles Talks, NHK Says
GBP: Osborne to Announce 10 Billion-Pound Rail Investment, FT Reports
USD: Fed May Need to Begin New Asset Purchases, Lockhart Says
USD: Dimon Saw $1 Billion Potential Loss When He Made ‘Teapot’ Remark
USD: Fed Draws Lawmaker Scrutiny After Release of Libor Documents
AUD: Gillard Vows to Fight Australia Election on Economic Credentials Â
Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: A quiet day for news overall the big one was the Italian downgrade which took the market in Euro’s down below 1.2200 for the first time in 2yrs, moving into the NYK session we saw the Euro dip below the 1.2180 level before the Michigan confidence turned the market moving quickly above 1.2240 and holding into the close of the market in tight trading.
·        GBP: A steady reversal of the day before, trading up to 1.5500 pre NYK session before the Michigan news which gave renewed impetus moving it up above 1.5570.
·        JPY: A quit day for the USDJPY with limited attempts to push down through 79.00 but generally holding above the 79.20 line, AUDJPY selling seen to be the largest player for the day with margin calls being hit in Asia by the retail players.
·        AUD: A steady rise over the day moving from the 1.0130 area through EURAUD selling, although CNY numbers were worse than expected the Oz seems to be trading independently for a change as Oz data seems to be bucking the expected results somewhat. We moved even further on the Michigan data before trading around the 1.0220 area where we closed.
Friday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Real GDP YTD Y/Y Q2 A 7.60% | C 7.90% | P 8.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Jun A 9.50% | C 9.80% | P 9.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Investment Y/Y Jun A 20.40% | C 20.00% | P 20.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Jun A 13.70% | C 13.50% | P 13.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M May (F) A -3.40% | C -3.10% | P -3.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Combined PPI M/M Jun A -0.30% | C -0.40% | P -0.20%Â
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Combined PPI Y/Y Jun A -2.20% | C -2.20% | P -2.30%Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Jun A 0.10% | C -0.60% | P -1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Jun A 0.70% | C -0.40% | P 0.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Jun A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Jun A 2.60% | C 2.60% | P 2.70%Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Jul (P) A 72 | C 73.5 | P 73.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
For today
USDJPY:
Topside: 79.40-79.70 light 2-way interests 79.70-80.00 light 2-way interests 80.00-80.30 medium buy stops
Downside: 78.80-79.10 light 2-way interests 78.50-78.80 decent sell stops 78.20-78.50 light bids
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EURUSD:
Topside: 1.2270-1.2300 light offers 1.2300-1.2330 light buy stops
Downside: 1.2210-1.2240 light bids 1.2180-1.2210 decent sell stops 1.2150-1.2180 light bids   Â
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EURJPY:
Topside: 97.30-97.60 medium buy stops
Downside: 96.00-96.30 light 2-way interests 95.70-96.00 light sell stops
AUDUSD:
Topside: 1.0250-1.0280 light offers
Downside: 1.0210-1.0220 medium bids 1.0180-1.0210 light bids 1.0150-1.0180 light bids
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CNY:
China Cabinet Likely to Launch More Stimulus After Mid-year Economic Conference – Report
China Able to Free Up Rates for Large Deposits, Official Writes
China Should Continue With Fiscal And Monetary Stimulus – Researcher
EUR:
Spain’s New Budget Measures Are ‘Credit Positive,’ Moody’s Says
JPY:
Most Japan Voters Have No Expectations of Ozawa’s New Party -Kyodo
JPY/CNY:
Japan ambassador returns to Beijing amid territorial spat
SGD:
Singapore New Private-Home Sales Fall to Fresh 2012 Low in June
NZD:
N.Z.’s Key Urges Councils to Cut Costs to Help Achieve Surplus
New Zealand services sector slows in June survey
AUD:
Australian Housing Starts To Fall 11.5% In 2012 -HIA
Moody’s Says Australia State Ratings Face Negative Pressure
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·        EUR: Opened higher on the open only to drift lower to fill the gap in the chart, while some of the news over the weekend seemed ok one still has to view it as a difference of opinion on some matters and the fact that the prospect of raising taxes in Germany has to be something to be concerned about as one supposes they won’t like that to fund the Med states. Euro’s traded down from its opening highs above 1.2265 moving steadily down to 1.2235 where some bids were seen from European banks.
·        GBP: Opened close to where we closed on Friday, moving steadily higher topping out above the 1.5592 level before dipping back moving steadily down to make the low of 1.5564 and holding around the 1.5570.
·        JPY: Opened slightly higher around the 79.25 level before drifting back down to the 79.08 level again liquidation of carry trades continues to hamper any move lower for the JPY. Â
·        AUD: Continual carry trade selling being forced on the Japanese retail market continues to lower the Oz; however, we did see some buying kick in from European banks around the 1.0215 level which seemed linked to the EUR/AUD trading.
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Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P Timings GMT
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Q/Q Q1 C -8.10% | P 7.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Q1 C 0.00% | P -1.40%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jun C 2.40% | P 2.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Jun C 1.60% | P 1.60%Â Â Â
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) May C 5.0B | P 6.2BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) May C 13.51B | P 10.20BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Jul C 4 | P 2.29Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Jun C 0.20% | P -0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Jun C 0.00% | P -0.40%Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories May C 0.30% | P 0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â
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Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.40 | 79.06
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2274 | 1.22323
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 97.80 | 96.78
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0257 | 1.0213
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7985 | 0.7952
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0151 | 1.0131
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20108 | 1.201
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9818 | 0.9785
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5594 | 1.5566
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7874 | 0.7858
Good luck
Andy