Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close Asian open
USDJPY 78.312 | EURUSD 1.23328 | EURJPY 96.579 | AUDUSD 1.05187 | NZDUSD 0.80886 | USDCAD 0.99258 | EURCHF 1.20104 | USDCHF 0.9739 | GBPUSD 1.5684 | EURGBP 0.7863 |
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Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: A slow day in Asia with Euro’s doing next to nothing as weekend comments kept it subdued, as we moved into London a Italian auction of €8bln 1yr Tbills was well received but one has to say 2.767% is not a shabby return when you consider interest rates in Europe and pretty much anywhere apart from Pacific rim areas, better than expected GDP results from Greece, net result was Euro’s moving steadily higher breaking through 1.2300 and moving to 1.2360 before the NYK session opened, from there gains were limited with a peak around 1.2370 but falling back to the 1.2340 level into the close. A lot of the movement can be laid at the door of some of the cross Euro buying especially against the Oz which we saw hitting low levels over the past few weeks.
·        GBP: Not as good as the Euro but Cable stayed in line with the moves in Euro as Cable moved without the benefit of any data or scandal, we started of the day around the 1.5670 level and repeated the pattern of above with it moving to around the 1.5715 during the early part of NYK from the London 1.5659 lows, it moved into the close just below 1.5690 on quiet trading throughout the day.
·        JPY: A quiet day throughout with 20tics covering the days market, USDJPY found itself again close to the lows of the bottom end of this month’s range moving through Asia from the opening levels of 78.23 area to hit 78.35 in quiet trading weaker GDP figures did nothing to inspire and London sold it off to hit the 78.16 level before early US picked it up and we moved to the 78.30 level in tight trading into the close.
·        AUD: We stayed in a tight range in Asia with just over 20tics for the session staying close to the 1.0540-60 levels, London moved it down to below 1.0540 believing the Chinese figures of last week bear listening closer too than the Oz believe, but it reversed its losses in the run to NYK opening topping above 1.0570, NYK had were in the same mood as early London traders and a little more aggressive with it taking Oz down to touch below 1.0500 before finishing around the 1.0520 area for the day.
Friday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q2 (P) A 0.30% | C 0.60% | P 1.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q2 (P) A -1.10% | C -0.80% | P -1.30%Â
6:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German WPI M/M Jul A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P -1.10%
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For today
JPY
Topside: 78.45-78.75 light scaled offers 79.00-79.20 medium light offers
Downside: 77.90-78.10Â decent two way with bias to stops 77.60-77.80 medium bids EUR
Topside: 1.2375-1.2395 light mixed 1.2450-1.2470Â light stop 1.2480-1.2500 light medium offers
Downside: 1.2290-1.2310 light bids 1.2240-1.2280 light scaled bids
EURJPY
Topside: 96.90-97.20 light scaled offers
Downside: 96.20-96.40 mixed 95.75-95.95Â light sell stops AUD
Topside: 1.0530-1.0550Â light offers 1.0570-1.0590 good two way interest leaning to offers
Downside: 1.0470-1.0490 medium sell stops 1.0440-1.0460Â light bids
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22:45Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Q/Q Q2 A 1.30% | C 0.70% | P -1.50% | R -0.60%
23:01Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Jul A -24.00% | C -24.00% | P -22.00%Â
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jun A 0.10% | C -0.30% | P 0.70% | R 0.90%
1:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Jul A 4 | P -3Â
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EUR:
Investors prepare for Euro collapse: Spiegel
JPY:
BoJ member say they have been pursuing powerful easing
A few members say BoJ should not rule out any options
Stand ready to act if risks stemming from Europe debt woes materialise
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·        EUR: A very quiet session with very little going on early sellers appeared in front of a EURJPY fixing supply taking it down to just above 1.2325 only for it to move back and carry on going to reach above the starting levels we then traded a few tics either side of 1.2345 with weak stop losses above 1.2350 acting as an attractive target, needless to say as we hit 0600hrs in London Eastern Europeans entered the market to take out the stops but failed to extend into the next batch of weak stops above 1.2360.
·        GBP: 20tics and that’s your lot with nothing special going on we saw Cable slowly move from the low of 1.5675 up to above 1.5696 in a slow trading day dragged along with the Euro.
·        JPY: An improvement in the Tertiary index saw the JPY steadily lose ground against the USD with the pair moving up from the 78.30 area to top out above 78.45 by mid-session from there we ran out of steam and floated for the rest of the session above 78.40.
·        AUD: From a slow sideways trading pattern for the first couple of hours a decent NAB number turned the market higher from 1.0510 level taking us to 1.0533 area, even so the attractiveness of the stops below the figure had the market turning back south, with a break below 1.0510 we set to get amongst them however, East European buying in Euro’s upset that apple cart and moved the Oz away from the danger zone for the time being.
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Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P Timings GMT
5:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French GDP Q/Q Q2 (P) C -0.20% | P 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
6:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q2 (P) C 0.10% | P 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
7:15Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Combined PPI M/M Jul C -0.20% | P -0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
7:15Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Combined PPI Y/Y Jul C -1.70% | P -2.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jul C -0.10% | P -0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jul C 2.30% | P 2.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y Jul C 2.00% | P 2.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M Jul C -0.10% | P -0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y Jul C 2.90% | P 2.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 (A) C -0.20% | P 0.00%Â Â Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jun C -0.20% | P 0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW Survey (Economic) Aug C -19.6 | P -19.6Â Â Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW Survey (Current) Aug C 18 | P 21.1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic) Aug C -19.1 | P -22.3Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Jul C 0.20% | P 0.10%Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Jul C 0.50% | P 0.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Jul C 0.20% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Jul C 2.30% | P 2.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Jul C 0.30% | P -0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Jul C 0.30% | P -0.40%Â Â Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Jun C 0.30% | P 0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
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Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23555Â |Â 1.23250
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 78.462 | 78.300
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 96.964 | 96.550
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97434 | 0.9717
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5698 | 1.5675
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0534 | 1.0504
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8113 | 0.8087
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9941 | 0.9916
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20128 | 1.20102
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78755 | 0.78635
Have a good day
Andy