Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close Asian open
USDJPY 78.976 | EURUSD 1.22877 | EURJPY 97.061 | AUDUSD 1.05048 | NZDUSD 0.80736 | USDCAD 0.98925 | EURCHF 1.20103 | USDCHF 0.97736 | GBPUSD 1.56823 | EURGBP 0.78353 |
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Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: Greek extension, SNB diversification flow and even broad based GBP strength weighed on the Euro today from the quiet Asian session limited to a 20tics movement the Euro failed at 1.2340 area in early London and from there started to move south, at one point we dropped some 40tics sharply to the 1.2280 area and held for the most part in that area we saw a low of 1.2264 during the NYK session but finished the session around 1.2280.
·        GBP: A choppy day overall with Asia setting the low on a quiet session of 1.5660, a drop in claimants and the unemployment numbers helped it to rally above 1.5700 initially but from there we saw 30tic movements up and down throughout the London session into NYK, late NYK settled down with the pair ending 5 or so tics higher on the day but in light of the drop in Euro’s a good day.
·        JPY: The market carried on moving upwards throughout the London session having initially topped out below 78.90, London pushed it up there and trough the 79.00 eventually with 79.03 being the high, it was short lived however, with more discussions of QE in the states dropping it quickly down to 78.65 area in early NYK, a steady climb from there again left the USDJPY around 78.90 on the day.
·        AUD: With the bad news out of the way during Asia, we touched 1.0456 during early London and moved higher on the back of QE rumours in NYK trading to 1.0514 before trading quietly into the close.
Friday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
00:30Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Aug A -2.50% | P 3.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
00:30Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Index Aug A 96.6 | P 99.1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
08:30    GBP      BoE Minutes A 0—0—9 | C 0—0—9 | P 0—0—9    Â
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Change Jul A -5.9K | C 6.5K | P 6.1K | R 1.0K
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Jun A 8.00% | C 8.10% | P 8.10%Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jul A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jul A 1.40% | C 1.50% | P 1.70%Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Jul A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Jul A 2.10% | C 2.20% | P 2.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Aug A -5.85 | C 7 | P 7.39Â Â Â
13:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows Jun A 9.3B | C 63.5B | P 55.0BÂ
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Jul A 0.60% | C 0.50% | P 0.40%Â Â Â Â Â
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Jul A 79.30% | C 79.20% | P 78.90%Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Aug A 37 | C 34 | P 35Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -3.7M | C -2.0M | P -3.7M
For today
USDJPY
Topside: 79.50-79.80 medium buy stops 80.00-80.30 light buy stopsÂ
Downside: 78.50-78.80 medium sell stops 78.00-78.30 medium bids 77.70-78.00 decent bids
EURUSD
Topside: 1.2300-1.2330 light offers 1.2340-1.2370 medium buy stopsÂ
Downside: 1.2220-1.2250 medium sell stops 1.2170-1.2200 light sell stops EURJPY
Topside: 97.30-97.60 light offers 98.00-98.30 light buy stopsÂ
Downside: 96.30-96.70 medium sell stops 95.90-96.20 light bids
AUDUSD
Topside: 1.0520-1.0550 light offers 1.0570-1.0600 light buy stopsÂ
Downside: 1.0450-1.0480 light bids 1.0400-1.0430 light bids
22:30Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business NZ Manufacturing Index Jul A 49.4 | C 50.2 | P 50
1:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Aug A 2.40% | P 3.30%Â
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JPY:
Tatsuo Yamasaki to Head Japan MOF International Bureau – Source
Moody’s: Japan’s Welfare Reform Credit-Positive for Sovereign, Local Governments
CNY:
China Premier Wen: Room Growing For Monetary Policy Operation
China Ministry: Export Environment in 2H Will Be More Difficult
China encourages companies to increase dividends
China July FDI Down 8.7% on Year at $7.58 Bln
China Cuts 2012 Housing Land Supply Target by 26.9% From 2011
USD:
Fed’s Kocherlakota-little impact from rate cut on bank reserves
NZD:
NZ July manufacturing activity falls into contraction – survey
New Zealand job ads gain in July – ANZ survey
AUD:
Australia’s PM Says Foreign Investors Hungry for A$ Assets
Australian RBA Sold A$528M In Forex Market In July
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·        EUR: we moved slowly down during the start of the session running into good fixing demand with buying of EURJPY taking the EURUSD briefly above 1.2305, once the demand was finished we renewed our steady move lower taking us down below 1.2275 into London. Gamma option sellers seem to be the main guys today.
·        GBP: A reversal of yesterday’s fortunes and Euro crisis weights on the market, moving from the highs above 1.5688 down to 1.5665 area as we run into London and CPI numbers for the day.
·        JPY: USDJPY continues to rise throughout the session with buying from all quarters taking us from below the 79.00 to up above the 79.30 level.
·        AUD: Remained steady in the first half of the session with AUDJPY fixing demand taking the market to above 1.0510 but the drag by Euro continues and the market turned south once it was over moving back below the figure before finding support in the 1.0480 level.
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Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P Timings GMT
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Jul C -0.20% | P 0.30%
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Jul C 1.70% | P 2.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M Jul C 0.00% | P 0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel Y/Y Jul C 1.50% | P 1.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M Jul C -0.60% | P -0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jul C 2.40% | P 2.40%Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Jul C 1.90% | P 1.60%Â Â Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ZEW Survey (Expectations) Aug P -42.5Â
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jun C 10.67B | P 26.11BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Jun C 0.30% | P -0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims C 365K | P 361KÂ Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Jul C 753K | P 760KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Jul C 765K | P 755KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Survey Aug C-4 | P -12.9Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage C 25B | P 24B
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Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.316 | 78.92
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23063 | 1.22755
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 97.40 | 97.021
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0513 | 1.0479
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8084 | 0.8061
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9896Â | 0.9883
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20116 | 1.201
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9784 | 0.9761
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5690 | 1.5666
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7845 | 0.78345
Have a good day
Andy