Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 78.41 | EURUSD 1.25647 | EURJPY 98.521 | AUDUSD 1.02252 | NZDUSD 0.79382 | USDCAD 0.98605 | EURCHF 1.20116 | USDCHF 0.95594 | GBPUSD 1.58699 | EURGBP 0.7917 |
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Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: A steady day with Asia making the highs with EURAUD cross again featuring, Euro’s moved higher with expectations of a hold on the Oz rate announcement with Euro trading just below 1.2630 we held in that area until the figures came out as uninspiring as they were and the Euro started to drift lower moving below 1.2560, with only a small correction the market stayed in the area into the NYK close.
·        GBP: A tight choppy day, with the market making headway in Asia with the 1.5900 level holding until London got underway who managed to penetrate the level but it was short lived and we steadily moved down after the early gains as PMI construction weighed on the market trading to 1.5870 by the time NYK came in to kick it around with a small recovery we dived lower on US numbers to trade below 1.5860 before again attempting the topside on expectations of decision making abilities in Europe (we’ve heard that before) Olympic news and the negative impact it’s perceived to have had on the retail market was the news for the day took us back to below the starting area into the close of NYK.
·        JPY: Another tight day for the JPY, monetary base initially weakened the JPY during Asia and we moved steadily away from below 78.30 hitting 78.46 as London opened however, US figures again caused the JPY to strengthen in NYK before it again became vogue to buy USDJPY into the late session moving it back to the 78.40 level.
·        AUD: Asia opened quietly awaiting the RBA rate announcement as expected the rate was left intact at 3.50% and the Oz rallied from 1.0230 area to touch 1.0287 in early London before everyone stood back and wondered why they were buying something we knew wasn’t going to trade, of course the blame was laid at the carry trades, London began selling the Oz taking it slowly back to the starting area, NYK saw a repeat performance not reaching previous levels before the selling kicked in and we moved down to trigger small stop losses to hit 1.0215 area before holding 1.0225 into the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Aug A -0.40% | C -0.50% | P 0.10%Â Â Â Â
JPY        Monetary Base Y/Y Aug A 6.50% | C 9.40% | P 8.60%      Â
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance (AUD) Q2 A -11.8B | C -12.3B | P -13.0BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 3.50% | C 3.50% | P 3.50%Â
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q2 A -0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.70% | R 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Construction Aug A 49 | C 50 | P 50.9Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M Jul A 0.40% | C 0.20% | P -0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jul A 1.80% | C 1.60% | P 1.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USD      ISM Manufacturing Aug A 49.6 | C 50 | P 49.8     Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Aug A 54 | C 46.5 | P 39.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Jul A -0.90% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%Â Â Â Â
For today
USDJPY
Topside: 78.50-78.80 light offers 79.00-79.30 light offers 79.40-79.70 light offersÂ
Downside: 78.00-78.30 medium bids 77.50-77.80 decent bids 77.00-77.30 medium bids
EURUSD
Topside: 1.2570-1.2600 light offers 1.2620-1.2650 medium buy stops 1.2670-1.2700 decent offers
Downside: 1.2500-1.2520 decent sell stops 1.2470-1.2500 medium sell stops
EURJPY
Topside: 98.80-99.10 light buy stops 99.20-99.50 light buy stopsÂ
Downside: 98.00-98.20 medium sell stops 97.50-97.80 light bids AUDUSD
Topside: 1.0230-1.0260 light offers 1.0270-1.0300 medium offers 1.0300-1.0330 light offersÂ
Downside: 1.0150-1.0195 scattered medium sell stops
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23:01Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Aug A 1.10% | P 1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
1:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q2 A 0.60% | C 0.80% | P 1.30% | R 1.40%
AUD: Australian 2Q GDP Grew 0.6% on Q vs. +0.8% Consensus
Treasurer says committed to budget surplus despite lower commodity prices
JPY:
DPJ to Pledge Increase in Child Subsidies, Call for BOJ Foreign Bond Buying-Nikkei
BOJ’s Miyao: must take careful, bold steps when needed
BOJ Miyao: Risks Elevated That Global Econ Slowdown Will Last Longer
Japan Government to Buy Islands Disputed with China – Media
JPY/OIL:
Japan to expand national reserve of oil products
CNY/USD:
China Vice President Xi Cancels Clinton Meeting -US Official
China paper warns Clinton ahead of talks
CNY:
China details rail, health, infrastructure spending – reports
HSBC China services PMI weakens to one-year low of 52.0
China Needs to Cut Local Govt Dependence on Land Sales – Govt Adviser
NZD:
New Zealand residential building work jumps in Q2
NZD/CNY:
NZ Prime Minister: NZ, China on Track to NZ$20 Billion of 2-Way Trade by 2015
GBP:
UK shop price inflation picks up to 1.1% in Aug – BRC
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·        EUR: A quiet start to the session before stop loss hunters appeared with rumours of nothing but stops below we kicked off from the 1.2558 level moving quickly to take some weak stops down to 1.2525 before we saw any type of support appearing from that point we’ve managed to move back above 1.2530 however, with speculation of even more stops putting in an appearance we bounced like a soggy cat and remain mired in the 1.2535 area for the better part of 5hrs
·        GBP: Cable was not as dramatic as the Euro but the chart looks similar with the drag from the initial sell off we moved from the highs above 1.5874 to touch 1.5855 from there we’ve attempted a couple of moves to the topside but as time passed the buyers seem to have given up and we’re holding around the 1.5860 level
·        JPY: Another quiet day with the Oz again taking centre stage with worse than expected GDP numbers USDJPY managed to peak just above 78.52 before declining back to the safe 78.40 area again into the close.
·        AUD: We opened quietly only to find that carry traders had changed their minds in front of the GDP numbers that were due and the decline taking out weak stops on its way had begun before the weak number was released however, the market fell asleep after the drop and we slowly started to move back towards the 1.0220 level having peaked at 1.0230 before the number, late in the session AUDNZD selling as NZD yields rallied pushing the Oz back towards the rumoured stop losses below 1.0200.
Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P Timings GMT
7:15Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Aug C 0.10% | P -0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
7:15Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Aug C -0.40% | P -0.70%
8:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PMI Services Aug (F) C 47.5 | P 47.5Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Services Aug C 51.1 | P 51Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jul C -0.20% | P 0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Non-Farm Productivity Q2 (F) C 1.80% | P 1.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q2 (F) C 1.50% | P 1.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision C 1.00% | P 1.00%
Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 78.54 | 78.402
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25683 | 1.25211
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 98.57 | 98.24
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0230 | 1.0190
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7959 | 0.7929
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9874 | 0.9858
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20149 | 1.20106
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9593 | 0.9558
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5876 | 1.5856
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79145 | 0.78945
Stay lucky
Andy