Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 78.395 | EURUSD 1.2600 | EURJPY 98.784 | AUDUSD 1.01925 | NZDUSD 0.7955 | USDCAD 0.99042 | EURCHF 1.20409 | USDCHF 0.95562 | GBPUSD 1.59108 | EURGBP 0.79239 |
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Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: Asia wasn’t fooled by the upcoming ECB conference, as Europe came in buying the rumour moving us from the lows just above 1.2500, they ignored the numbers which while inline are pretty poor none the less we moved back above 1.2540 area before NYK came in and followed suit buying the rumour rather than the fact and we ended up above 1.2620 repairing this week’s damages. We ended the session around the 1.2600 mark, it was worth noting that EUR/CHF made a move higher on poor CHF numbers one wonders what a particular US bank knew having called the move only hours before.  Any more rumours and there’ll be nothing for the press conference.
·        GBP: Cable continues to hold above 1.5820 again and now seems to be more of a technical move than fundamental moving from the Asian lows just above that support to trade above 1.5930 before settling down to the 1.5900 level for the close.
·        JPY: USDJPY moved higher during the Asian session to touch 78.53 but was contained in a 25tic range for the day and ended the session slightly weaker at 78.31 with all eyes being drawn to the European theatre for the already leaked rumours of the whole meeting before it happens.
·        AUD: Weaker than expected GDP numbers sent the AUD tumbling lower triggering stops during Asia, early London made the lows triggering more stops hitting 1.0168 before recovering slightly to finish in a choppy market around the 1.0190 level.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Aug A 1.10% | P 1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q2 A 0.60% | C 0.80% | P 1.30% | R 1.40%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Aug A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P -0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Aug A -0.50% | C -0.40% | P -0.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PMI Services Aug (F) A 47.2 | C 47.5 | P 47.5Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jul A -0.20% | C -0.20% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Non-Farm Productivity Q2 (F) A 2.20% | C 1.80% | P 1.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q2 (F) A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.70%Â Â Â Â Â
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision A 1.00% | C 1.00% | P 1.00%
For today
USDJPY
Topside: 78.50-78.80 light offers 78.90-79.20 light offers 79.30-79.60 light offersÂ
Downside: 78.00-78.30 medium bids 77.70-78.00 medium bids 77.30-77.60 decent bids
77.00-77.30 light bids
EURUSD
Topside: 1.2620-1.2650 medium buy stops 1.2670-1.2700 decent offers 1.2700-1.2730 medium offersÂ
Downside: 1.2550-1.2580 medium sell stops 1.2500-1.2530 medium sell stops 1.2470-1.2500 light bids
EURJPY
Topside: 99.00-99.30 light buy stops 99.50-99.80 light offersÂ
Downside: 98.00-98.30 medium sell stops 97.50-97.80 light bids AUDUSD
Topside: 1.0230-1.0260 light offers 1.0270-1.0300 light offersÂ
Downside: 1.0150-1.0180 light bids 1.0120-1.0150 medium sell stops 1.0080-1.0110 light bids
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1:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Aug A -8.8K | C 5.0K | P 14.0K | R 11.7K
1:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Aug A 5.10% | C 5.30% | PÂ 5.20%Â Â Â
AUD:
Australia employment dips, jobless also down
Australia Trade Minister Confident About Trans-Pacific Partnership Talks
JPY:
BOJ Gov. Shirakawa: Paying More Attention to Negative Impact of High Yen
EUR:
Moody’s lowers Ireland’s country ceiling to A3
JPY/CNY:
Nissan COO says strained China-Japan ties impact sales
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·        EUR: Euro’s struggled during the early part of the session holding above the 1.2595 level, only when the employment figures came out did we rally higher on the back of the AUD move moving quickly above 1.2620 before stopping suddenly and dropping back below 1.2610, leaving the day ahead interesting given that everyone is expecting a cut in rates but still seems to want to buy hmmm.
·        GBP: Cable made no headway over the session dropping into the low 1.5890’s before moving back above the 1.5900 in tight and quiet trading, GBPJPY showed somewhat in late buying but even that was really nothing to write home about.
·        JPY: All eyes focus on the ECB and it was reflected in the 10tic range we saw in USDJPY as retail seemed to stay away before the fact (smart than your average bear) early trading moved USDJPY above 78.46 only for it to move back quicker half way through the session but that could have been just a single deal going through it was that tight.
·        AUD: The Oz opened quietly trading between 1.0170-90 for the most part before the employment figures kicked it up to above 1.0220 for it to grind to a halt again as eyes turn to Europe. EURAUD is sitting on what appears to be a very technical area and worth noting if it breaks later in the day.
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Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P Timings GMT
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 (P) C -0.20% | P -0.20%Â Â
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Jul C 0.30% | P -1.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
11:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision C 0.50% | P 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â
11:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target C 375B | P 375BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
11:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Aug P -44.50%Â Â
11:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision C 0.50% | P 0.75%Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Aug C 140K | P 163KÂ Â
12:30    EUR       ECB Press Conference                                                 Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims C 370K | P 374KÂ Â Â Â Â Â
14:00    USD      ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Aug C 52.5 | P 52.6  Â
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage C 40B | P 66BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories C -4.9M | P 3.8M
Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 78.475 | 78.37
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2621 | 1.2593
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 98.93 | 98.76
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0227 | 1.0165
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7969 | 0.7941
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9915 | 0.9904
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20585 | 1.2039
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.95648 | 0.95452
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5907 | 1.5892
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79345 | 0.79205
Stay lucky
Andy