Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

NYK Close

USDJPY 78.244 | EURUSD 1.29679 | EURJPY 101.472 | AUDUSD 1.04351 | NZDUSD 0.8285 | USDCAD 0.9768 | EURCHF 1.21017 | USDCHF 0.93328 | GBPUSD 1.62144 | EURGBP 0.79975 |

 

Harry Hindsight

·         EUR: The Euro continued to fall triggered initially by Chinese PMI numbers still in negative territory, moving down from the opening above 1.3040 to push through the 1.3000 level late in the session, London entered the market and pushed it through the support at 1.2980 triggering stop losses to 1.2940, then the numbers started to come out and were uninspiring and by mid NYK session we had pushed to just above 1.2920 for the low of the day, we spent the rest of the day recovering to hold around the 1.2970 level into the close.

·         GBP: Much the same as the Euro losing ground after the Chinese numbers trading from the high of 1.6238 to just below 1.6164 however as London walked in buying Cable and selling EURGBP, while Cable did not rise to far moving back to the 1.6200 level and continually dipping from that level it traded for the rest of the session pretty much in a 30 tic band up until the back end of NYK when it pushed through the 1.6200 and managed to crawl back above 1.6215. EURGBP was sold off in Asia continued into London from 0.8043 trading down below 0.8000 as this week early buyers started to cut positions. We then remained below the 0.8000 level trading down to the 0.7990 area for the most part. Retail sales helped somewhat with a better than expected number even if all the doom a gloom merchants think that London means the UK.

·         JPY: We saw Yen again strengthening against the USD as the Euro dropped and safe haven trading moved into the market however it couldn’t breach the 78.00 area and soon bounced back to the 78.30 area just off the opening levels for a quiet day overall.

·         AUD: Two factors effected the Oz the first came in the shape of AUDNZD selling as the NZ GDP figure came in better than expected and we saw plenty appear in the market triggering stop losses, then we had the Chinese number and we saw the full sell off appear taking out the support levels moving from the 1.0480 level we dropped into London a good full big figure from the opening and only as we entered the end of the US sessions did we see profit taking initially futures led and then a rally to 1.0435 area into the close.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R 

NZD       GDP Q/Q Q2 A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 1.10% | R 1.00%

JPY         Trade Balance (JPY) Aug A -0.47T | C -0.37T | P -0.33T | R -0.37T

CNY        HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Sep A 47.8 | P 47.6          

JPY         All Industry Activity Index M/M Jul A -0.60% | C -0.50% | P 0.20% | R 0.30%

EUR        German PPI M/M Aug A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P 0.00%         

EUR        German PPI Y/Y Aug A 1.60% | C 1.50% | P 0.90%             

CHF        Trade Balance (CHF) Aug A 1.73B | C 2.92B | P 2.88B

EUR        French PMI Manufacturing Sep (P) A 42.6 | P 46.4 | C 46               

EUR        French PMI Services Sep (P) A 46.1 | C 49.5 | P 49.2        

EUR        German PMI Manufacturing Sep (A) A 47.3 | C 45.2 | P 44.7        

EUR        German PMI Services Sep (A) A 50.6 | C 48.5 | P 48.3     

EUR        Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Sep (A) A 46 | C 45.5 | P 45.1         

EUR        Eurozone PMI Services Sep (A) A 46 | C 47.5 | P 47.2      

GBP       Retail Sales M/M Aug A -0.20% | C -0.40% | P 0.00% | R 0.30%

GBP       Retail Sales Y/Y Aug A 3.10% | C 3.20% | P 3.30% | R 2.80%

GBP       Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M Aug A -0.20% | C -0.30% | P 0.30%             

GBP       Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel Y/Y Aug A 2.70% | C 2.90% | P 2.80% | R 2.30%

GBP       CBI Trends Total Orders Sep A -8 | C -15 | P -21 

USD       Initial Jobless Claims A 382K | C 370K | P 385K    

EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Sep (A) A -26 | C -24 | P -24.6  

USD       Philly Fed Survey Sep A -1.9 | C -3.3 | P -7.1        

USD       Leading Indicators Aug A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P 0.40%     

USD       Natural Gas Storage A 67B | C 67B | P 27B

 

For today

USDJPY
Topside: 78.30-78.60 light offers  78.70-79.00 light offers  79.20-79.50 medium offers  79.50-79.80 medium offers 
Downside: 77.80-78.10 light sell stops 77.50-77.80 decent bids 77.00-77.30 decent sell stops 

EURUSD
Topside: 1.2980-1.3000 light offers  1.3000-1.3030 mixed  1.3030-1.3060 light offers 
Downside: 1.2920-1.2950 light bids 1.2890-1.2920 medium bids 1.2850-1.2880 light bids

EURJPY
Topside: 101.70-102.00 medium buy stops  102.20-102.50 light offers 
Downside: 101.00-101.30 light bids AUDUSD
Topside: 1.0440-1.0470 medium buy stops  1.0470-1.0500 light buy stops 
Downside: 1.0400-1.0430 light bids 1.0370-1.0400 light bids 1.0320-1.0350 medium sell stops

 

JPY:

 Japan firms say China protests affect business plans

Japan Fin Min Azumi: China Customs Delays Matter Of Grave Importance

USD/JPY/CNY:

Treaty with Japan covers islets in China spat – US official

USD:

Fed’s Bullard: Jury Still Out on Structural Employment Impact

EUR:

IMF Chief: Spain Banks’ Recapitalization Needs Close to IMF Projections

CNY:

 Xi Says China to Encourage Companies Raising Investment to ASEAN

China to expand pilot property tax scheme-paper

China May Issue Detailed Plans to Extend Property Tax at Year-End -Report

NZD:

New Zealand migration loss slows in August – Stats NZ

 

0:00        AUD       Conference Board Leading Index Jul A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.50%

·         EUR: Market moved steadily higher over the session in thin trading moving from the 1.2965 area to touch above 1.2990 with early newspaper articles stating that a deal with Spain is very close one has to wonder why do a deal if the Spanish a baulking at the rate of return? I’m awfully glad the Germans are so accommodating it being generally their money. But we’ve been here before so, we like others will wait and see.

·         GBP: GBP also ground higher moving again the USD from the 1.6212 are to peak around  1.6260 to the latter part of the session cross selling in EURGBP seemed to be the main motive for the move higher as the cross moved down into the mid 0.7880’s moving into London the Cable remains on it highs.

·         JPY: USDJPY remains fairly static having made highs of 78.36 by midsession neither fixing demand or sentiment seems to want to move this away from the 78.20 level again.

·         AUD: Having failed to push any further yesterday it’s been a case of cross buying in the carry trades and others as people take back the shorts from yesterday. We’ve gradually moved from the opening area 1.0420 to 1.0475 before slowing there has been really very little volume across any of the majors compared with yesterday as people seem reluctant to take positions over the weekend.

 

Today’s data

Consensus = C  Previous = P Timings GMT

08:30     GBP       Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Aug C 13.2B | P -1.8B              

12:30     CAD       Wholesale Sales M/M Jul C -0.20% | P -0.10%    

12:30     CAD       CPI M/M Aug C 0.30% | P -0.10%             

12:30     CAD       CPI Y/Y Aug C 1.30% | P 1.30%   

12:30     CAD       BoC CPI Core M/M Aug C 0.30% | P -0.10%          

12:30     CAD       BoC CPI Core Y/Y Aug C 1.60% | P 1.70%

Ranges as of 6am London time

                                Highs   Lows

USD/JPY             78.379 | 78.129

EUR/USD             1.2993 | 1.2963

EUR/JPY             101.676 | 101.44

AUD/USD             1.0480 | 1.0428

NZD/USD             0.8307 | 0.8285

USD/CAD             0.9767 | 0.974

EUR/CHF             1.2105 | 1.2096

USD/CHF             0.93351 | 0.93161

GBP/USD            1.6260 | 1.6214

EUR/GBP            0.8000 | 0.79865

Stay lucky

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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