Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 77.847 | EURUSD 1.29307 | EURJPY 100.665 | AUDUSD 1.0424 | NZDUSD 0.82156 | USDCAD 0.97851 | EURCHF 1.21005 | USDCHF 0.93572 | GBPUSD 1.62184 | EURGBP 0.79726 |
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Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: Asia started the selling however, the IFO numbers were worse than expected forcing the Euro from above 1.2975 down to the 1.2900 level in the initial selling from there it was sideways trading with little to inspire with unwinding of long term positions seeming to dominate the market as Euro, EURGBP and EURCHF were sold throughout the day, NYK made the lows below the 1.2900 level but from there we moved slowly back above 1.2920 into the close.
·        GBP: The open just above 1.6240 was breached once during the day just before the IFO numbers with EURGBP keeping the Cable bid then with the EUR, GBP dropped moving through the 1.6200 for the first time in the day and while EURGBP remained in play the drag of the EUR left GBP under pressure with put options being the focus for the day for Macro players we saw the low in mid-session NYK moving to just above 1.6180 before the slow rise towards the end moving back above 1.6230 as the cross impacted more in a less liquid market.
·        JPY: A steady decline throughout the day as fears seem to be put aside of intervention talk, moving from the 78.15 area we moved steadily lower before finishing the day just above the 77.80 level. Again talk of safe haven flows seem to dominate however, would you be buying Yen down here?
·        AUD: The Oz struggled during the Asian session moving down from the off, from 1.0455 area down to touch the 1.0400 with stop losses the focus down there however, we failed to break and it took another few attempts after the IFO figures before we pushed through touching the mid 1.0380 levels before the selling subsided and the market started to move back above the 1.0400 level.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Business Climate Sep A 101.4 | C 102.5 | P 102.3Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Current Assessment Sep A 110.3 | C 111 | P 111.2 | R 111.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Expectations Sep A 93.2 | C 95 | P 94.2Â Â Â Â
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For today
USDJPY:
Topside: 78.20-78.50 light offers 78.50-78.80 light buy stops
Downside: 77.60-77.80 medium sell stops 77.30-77.60 decent bids 77.00-77.30 decent scaled bids
EURUSD:
Topside: 1.2935-1.2960 light buy stops 1.2960-1.2990 light mixed
Downside: 1.2870-1.2900 light bids 1.2840-1.2870 light mixed bag
EURJPY:
Topside: 100.85-101.15 light offers 101.20-101.50 light buy stops
Downside: 100.00-100.30 light bids 99.50-99.90 light sell stops AUDUSD:
Topside: 1.0455-1.0490 medium scaled buy stops 1.0490-1.0520 light buy stops
Downside: 1.0370-1.0400 light bids 1.0340-1.0370 light sell stops
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23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Aug A -0.30% | C -0.30% | P -0.20% | R -0.30%
2:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Conference Board Leading Index Aug A 1.70% | C 0.70% | P 0.60%
JPY:
Japan Azumi: there will be no vacuum in FX policy
Japan PM may tap senior politician Okada as fin min-media
TWD/JPY:
Taiwanese Govt Boats, Fishing Vessels In Japan Territorial Waters
Japan fires water cannon to turn away Taiwan boats
USD/CNY:
Obama should call China a currency manipulator – Romney aide
CNY:
China Leading Economic Index Rises 1.7%, Conference Board Says
China’s Central Bank Injects Record Funds to Ease Cash Crunch
China Sept. CPI May Rise About 2.2% YoY: China Securities Journal
China Wealth Gap to Stay in Danger Zone, Government Adviser Says
GBP/SGD:
Temasek Considering Sale of Stan Chart Stake -FT
AUD:
Australian banks warned not to ease lending standards RBA
NZD:
NZ central bank has rate flexibility, unlike others FinMin
GBP/INR:
Cairn Energy Plans to Raise $940 Mln by Selling Cairn India Shares
EUR:
Spanish Government Plans to Raise Pensions by 1% in 2013 -Report
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·        EUR: A quiet start with the market staying around the 1.2930 level for the first couple of hours, the rise started with demand for EURJPY for the fix in Tokyo Euro’s pushed above 1.2942 for the first time and held, China’s Conference board index came in better than expected and the market moved above 1.2950 only for a news item that the Bundesbank are checking the legality of the European bond purchasing program, whether as suggested this is so they have the facts if it does get referred to the Central court as a breech the EU treaty, the market quickly returned the 1.2930 area as we head to the London open.
·        GBP: Cable remained in a tight range moving from the opening area around 1.6220 to a high just above 1.6236 before drifting off on the back of Euro’s slide lower to just above its starting area on thin trading.
·        JPY: Apart from demand for EURJPY we’ve been very quiet we opened above the 77.80 level that seems to have stop losses below and held up through most of the session however, as we move towards London the market turned lower but the stops that are been triggered are been absorbed by buyers willing to hold for the spoof or intervention. Which while we are getting verbal comments don’t seem to be above the norm?
·        AUD: Initially we drifted from the 1.0430 opening moving into the mid-teens before the China number which moved the market higher but not significantly topping out around the 1.0444 level before starting the steady drift lower, as we approach London were just above the 1.0430 level with very little going through in a quiet market.
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Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P Timings GMT
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Sentiment Oct C 5.9 | P 5.9Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
06:00    CHF       UBS Consumption Indicator Aug P 1.55  Â
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Mortgage Approvals Aug C 28.1K | P 28.4KÂ
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Jul C 0.20% | P -0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Jul C 0.20% | P -0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jul C 1.10% | P 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Sep C 63.2 | P 60.6Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Jul C 0.70% | P 0.70%
Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 77.91 | 77.75
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2954 | 1.2929
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 100.82 | 100.61
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0445 | 1.0416
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8242 | 0.821
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9796 | 0.9781
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2102 | 1.2095
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9358 | 0.9342
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6237 | 1.6220
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7977 | 0.7969
 Stay lucky
Andy