Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close SYD open
USDJPY 82.492 82.28-40 | EURUSD 1.29266 1.2896-1.2900 | EURJPY 106.624 106.11-30 | AUDUSD 1.0487 1.0486-93 | NZDUSD 0.83279 0.8300-20 | USDCAD 0.98857 0.9880-9900 | EURCHF 1.20793 1.2075-87 | USDCHF 0.9345 0.9307-98 | GBPUSD 1.60404 1.6020-35 | EURGBP 0.80592 0.8046-79 |
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Weekend News
CNY:
China’s Industrial Output Accelerates as Inflation Rebounds
PBOC-Backed Survey Sees China Urban Jobless Rate 8% in July ’11
EUR:
Monti Plans to Resign as Berlusconi Seeks Return to Power
Berlusconi Seeks Italy Premiership as Monti Government Teeters
Greek Aid to Cost Germany Billions of Euros, Schaeuble Tells BaS
ECB Sees Recession Ending in 2014 as Policies Take HoldÂ
Greek Debt Buyback Gets $35 Billion of Offers, NET TV Reports
Greece’s Stournaras Says Buyback Will Ensure Loan Pay out: Ta Nea
EUR/GBP:
Monti Says U.K. Needs Referendum on European Union Membership
CAD/CNY/MYR:
Canada Approves Cnooc, Petronas Bids for Nexen, Progress Energy
USD:
Obama Seeks $60.4 Billion to Assist States Recovering From Sandy
SAC Capital’s InterMune Trades Said to Be Probed by SEC, FBIÂ
JPY:
Abe Says Japan Sales Tax Increase Depends on April-June Economy
Japan Reports Little Damage After 7.3-Magnitude Quake
MXN:
Mexico’s Messmacher Says Debt to GDP Ratio for 2013 at 33.2%
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Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: After a very quiet start in the Asian markets with most of the action contained within 10tics of the opening 1.2970 level London opened with a quick round of selling setting the low at 1.2930, we continued to grind slowly lower after than move until just before NYK opening when we saw a fresh round of selling in front of NFP when the number came out better than expected Euro’s caught a rally as it does every time and pushed from the low of 1.2880 to the 1.2950 level obviously because more people employed in the USA is better for the Euro? But we’ve been down that road before. We finished the day just below 1.2930 on slow trading in the back end of NYK.
·        GBP: Cable had a tight range throughout the Asian session moving from the opening level 1.6052 and trading in a tight 20tic range around the point until the London market opened and we began a slide down towards 1.6000 following the Euro in pre NFP trading, once the number hit we rose again with the Euro to 1.6035 area where we remained for several hours into the close in quiet trading, EURGBP again dropped some 20 tics over the session as Euro lost some of its previous shine.
·        JPY: A quiet session throughout the day apart from the period of NFP were we saw USDJPY rise quickly to above 82.80 triggering some minor stop losses before dropping back to the 82.30 area post release not quite as quickly but rather telling of the type of liquidity the market had at that point, we settled around the 82.50 mark for the day.
·        AUD: The Oz had the quietest day out of most of the majors with an opening level in the 1.0485 area and just over 35 tics for the day moving down to 1.0460 during pre NFP before rising again to its previous levels and setting a high above 1.0495 before settling to the starting point as if nothing had happened.
Friday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Oct A -2.09B | C -2.15B | P -1.46B | R -1.42B
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Oct (P) A 92.5 | C 92 | P 91.6Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves Nov A 424.8B | C 422.0B | P 426.8BÂ Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Oct A -0.80% | C 0.80% | P -1.70% | R -2.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Oct A -3.00% | C -0.50% | P -2.60% | R -3.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Oct A -1.30% | C -0.20% | P 0.10% | R 0.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Oct A -2.10% | C -0.20% | P -1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Oct A -2.60% | C 0.00% | P -1.80% | R -1.30%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Nov A 59.3K | C 10.0K | P 1.8KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Nov A 7.20% | C 7.40% | P 7.40%Â Â
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Labour Productivity Q/Q Q3 A -0.50% | C -0.40% | P -0.50% | R -0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Nov A 146K | C 90K | P 171K | R 138K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Nov A 7.70% | C 7.90% | P 7.90%Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Dec (P) A 82 | P 82.7
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Nov A 0.10% | P 0.50%
For today
USDJPY
Topside: 82.60-82.90 light offers 82.90-83.20 decent buy stops 83.20-83.50 decent buy stops
Downside: 82.00-82.30 light mix 81.70-82.00 medium bids EURUSD:
Topside: 1.2930-1.2960 light mix 1.2960-1.2990 decent offers
Downside: 1.2850-1.2880 medium sell stops 1.2820-1.2850 light sell stops
EURJPY:
Topside: 107.10-107.40 light mix
Downside: 105.90-106.20 medium bids 105.40-105.70 light bids AUDUSD:
Topside: 1.0500-1.0530 medium buy stops 1.0570-1.0600 medium buy stops
Downside: 1.0410-1.0440 light mix 1.0380-1.0410 light bids
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CNY:
China November Trade Weakens, Highlighting External Risks
China to Reach 7.5% GDP Growth, 4% Inflation Rise This Year -Report
Amundi Prepares to Buy China Bonds as Xi Pledges to Open Market
JPY:
Japan revised Q3 GDP falls 0.9%, Q2 revised lower
Japan Oct Current Acct Surplus Y376.9B; Expected Surplus Y218B
MOF: Big Co Oct-Dec Corp Mood Index Worse on Quarter
Japan consumer mood worsens in November
NZD:
NZ’s Fonterra raises 2013 pay-out forecast
CNY/TWD:
China to Further Support Taiwan Companies in QFII Program -Report
AUD:
Australian October Housing Finance +0.1%; Consensus +3.0%
USD/GBP:
FT runs an article about the governments of both countries working on a plan to deal with bank failures, there goes another chunk of you pension, if you have any left.
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·        EUR: The market opened down from Friday’s close on the back of the Monti announcement, the market didn’t like the news particularly and it seems to be led by the PDL centre-right party stating that it considers concluded the tenure of Monti’s government, so on 8th he made the announcement, chances are there will be time for the budget to go through but many of the reforms will go uncompleted including the electoral reforms, which would leave the chances of Monti forming another government or winning a future election at slim at best. The Euro’s opened at the 1.2900 area before nose diving to just above the 1.2880 level before moving to the 1.2890 area for the Tokyo opening. We pushed up briefly as the market tried to fill the gap and cause a short squeeze on the early sellers but we failed to move mush beyond the 1.2910 level and have traded slightly lower to test the 1.2890 level again were we look to be moving into London.
·        GBP: Cable opened only slightly down from Friday with the news from Italy, one of Monti’s parting comments was the UK should take the country to referendum over their membership of the EU, at least he’d get the popular vote in the UK however, one would imagine that although they may mutter about it the Tories have no inclination of dipping their toe in that water. We moved down steadily over the session have touched above 1.6040 in early trading we settled down towards the 1.6020 level where we seem to be hanging on in a quiet market and a less than newsworthy weekend…
·        JPY: USDJPY opened slightly better with the Euro suffering USD was in ascendency and we opened around the 82.50 area, we saw small fixing demand that took us just below the 82.65 level but once that was out of the way we started a slow drift lower to below 82.40 where we look to be moving into the London market around.
·        AUD: The Oz remains in a very tight range moving slightly higher from the opening, only to drift lower throughout the session, particularly on the Home Loan number where we moved out of the opening area to trading below 1.0466 briefly before moving back into the 1.0470’s
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Today’s data
Actual = A Consensus = C Previous = P Timings GMT
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Nov A $19.63B | C $26.85B | P $31.99BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Activity Q3 A 1.60% | P -1.10% | R -0.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q4 A -10.3 | C 4.3 | P 2.5Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Gross Domestic Product Q/Q Q3 (F) A -0.90% | C -0.80% | P -0.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Gross Domestic Product Deflator Y/Y Q3 (F) A -0.80% | C -0.70% | P -0.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Oct A 0.41T | C 0.25T | P -0.14TÂ Â Â Â
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans Oct A 0.10% | C 3.00% | P 0.90% | R 1.10%Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Nov A 39.4 | C 40.3 | P 39.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey: Current Nov A 40 | C 39.7 | P 39Â Â Â
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance (EUR) Oct C 15.5B | P 16.9BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
09:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Dec C -16.9 | P -18.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:15Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Nov C 202.0K | P 204.1KÂ
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Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 82.64 | 82.37
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2916 | 1.288
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.63 | 106.15
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0499 | 1.0465
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8340 | 0.8295
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9885 | 0.9865
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2081 | 1.2073
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9380 | 0.9349
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6043 | 1.5999
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8057 | 0.8035
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 Stay lucky
Andy