Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 82.355 | EURUSD 1.29412 | EURJPY 106.582 | AUDUSD 1.04892 | NZDUSD 0.83406 | USDCAD 0.98652 | EURCHF 1.20808 | USDCHF 0.93353 | GBPUSD 1.60757 | EURGBP 0.8050 |
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Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: After the weekend news Asia opened lower and while it attempted to fill the gap on the charts moving from the opening level of 1.2890 to 1.2910/15 it failed to move any higher and ended up stuck around the 1.2900 area for most of the session, it took the London session to fill the gap as the market got used to Monti forth coming departure. With a Spanish auction later this week it helped the Euro to recover to Fridays close just as the NYK market opened once we’d filled the gap though the market became rather subdued and directionless picking up only about 10tics over the course of the NYK market to take us to just above 1.2945 before the close.
·        GBP: Cable failed to make the moves we saw in the Euro on the opening and held up during the Asian session moving down from the opening levels 1.6030 to 1.6015 over the entire session, London picked up the market and we saw a rise from the lows to above 1.6090 over the course of the day with the highs reached at the start of the NYK session with EURGBP trading lower in the first half before settling pretty much unchanged from Friday, we settled back in the late part of the session but finished above the 1.6070 level for a strong day.
·        JPY: USDJPY struggled in the early session with EURJPY selling providing the Yen buying and taking us from the opening above 82.50 added to which we saw the Current account increase to 0.41T from the previous negative number this also led to strength in the Yen we moved down to the 82.12 area before there was any sign of recovery and we gradually started to recover some of he lost ground over the course of the NYK session having bottomed out in London.
·        AUD: The Oz held its ground again as all the other currencies gyrated on the Monti, and current account in Japan, even the drop in trade balance had only a slight effect on the Oz moving from the opening 1.0490 level to just above 1.0465 when it came out from there it traded sideways moving back to the opening level during London and then moving higher as the Euro started to move, we peaked again above 1.0500 but failed to push to far as the sellers appeared before dropping back to the 1.0485 area into the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Nov A $19.63B | C $26.85B | P $31.99BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Activity Q3 A 1.60% | P -1.10% | R -0.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q4 A -10.3 | C 4.3 | P 2.5Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Gross Domestic Product Q/Q Q3 (F) A -0.90% | C -0.80% | P -0.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Gross Domestic Product Deflator Y/Y Q3 (F) A -0.80% | C -0.70% | P -0.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Oct A 0.41T | C 0.25T | P -0.14TÂ Â Â Â
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans Oct A 0.10% | C 3.00% | P 0.90% | R 1.10%Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Nov A 39.4 | C 40.3 | P 39.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey: Current Nov A 40 | C 39.7 | P 39Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance (EUR) Oct A 15.2B | C 15.5B | P 16.9BÂ Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Dec A -16.8 | C -16.9 | P -18.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Nov A 196k | C 202.0K | P 204.1K
For today
USDJPYÂ
Topside: 82.40-82.70 light offers 82.80-83.10 decent buy stops 83.20-83.50 decent buy stopsÂ
Downside: 81.20-81.50 medium sell stops 81.50-81.80 light sell stops 81.90-82.20 medium bidsÂ
EURUSDÂ
Topside: 1.2950-1.2980 light offers 1.2990-1.3020 light buy stops 1.3030-1.3060 medium offersÂ
Downside: 1.2900-1.2930 medium bids 1.2870-1.2900 medium sell stops 1.2830-1.2860 medium sell stopsÂ
EURJPYÂ
Topside: 106.70-107.00 light mix 107.00-107.30 light offers 107.40-107.70 light offersÂ
Downside: 106.00-106.30 light sell stops 105.30-105.60 light bids 105.00-105.30 light bids AUDUSDÂ
Topside: 1.0500-1.0530 weak buy stops 1.0540-1.0570 light buy stops .0580-1.0610 medium buy stopsÂ
Downside: 1.0430-1.0460 light bids 1.0380-1.0410 light bids
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CNY:
China November New Yuan Loans CNY522.9B; Analysts Expected CNY550B
China May Set 2013 Bank New Loan Quota at 8t Yuan: Securities
China Nov fiscal revenue up 21.9%, spending up 6.7% y/y
JPY:
Japan LDP and partner on track for big election win-surveys
USD/JPY:
U.S. approves upgrades of Japan’s Aegis missile systems
AUD:
Australia business confidence slumps in November survey
GBP:
WSJ: BOE’S King Warns of Exchange-Rate Wars
UK think tank warns government on tax policy-FT
NZD:
New Zealand house prices hit record high in Nov QV
Reserve Bank of NZ Releases Final Basel III Capital Requirements
NZ electronic card retail spending rises in November
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·        EUR: The Euro opened quietly and trade quietly downwards from the 1.2942 area to hit 1.2929 before quickly moving up to 1.2960 on suspected Asian CB or Arab fund buying however, that type of buying usually sees then market moving back down just as quick as it went up so one suspects I’m missing something as we stay bid in the 1.2955 area as we move towards early London, a leading German bank did put out a cautionary note on the markets over expectations of a cut in deposit rates by the ECB so maybe somebody follows their news items closely
·        GBP: The Cable was very little different than the Euro opening around the 1.6075 area we moved slowly to test below 1.6070 and failed to push lower and moved back to the start area before a quick leap up to above 1.6087 as the market tagged along with the Euro we hold for the moment above 1.6080 as we move to London with a very quiet market today in Asia.
·        JPY: A quiet day in the USDJPY we opened in the mid 82.30’s rising during the fix but only to where offers 82.45/50 are before drifting back down to the 82.30’s where light bids are seen one imagines any determination would put it through either level as there is not a lot out there.
·        AUD: The market again dominated by Gamma players as we again traded down from 1.0490 to the low 1.0460’s before recovering back into the mid 1.0480’s the market ignored the confidence number in all likelihood the good commodity results that we’ve seen recently with bumper cotton and sugar crops balancing any confidence tricks.
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Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Nov A 2.10% | C 2.30% | P 2.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Nov A -9.00% | C -5.00% | P -7.00%Â Â Â Â Â
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Nov A -9 | P -1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Dec C 6 | P 5.4
10:00    EUR       German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Dec  C -11.5 | P -15.7           Â
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Dec P -2.6Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Oct C -$42.6B | P -$41.5B
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CAD) Oct C -1.2B | P -0.8BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Oct C 0.40% | P 1.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 82.44 | 82.305
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29625 | 1.29285
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.75 | 106.47
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0491 | 1.0461
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8355 | 0.8335
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9873 | 0.9862
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20845 | 1.2077
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9345 | 0.9323
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6090 | 1.6069
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80545 | 0.8045
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Good luck
Andy