Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 84.385 | EURUSD 1.32442 | EURJPY 111.761 | AUDUSD 1.04828 | NZDUSD 0.8339 | USDCAD 0.9877 | EURCHF 1.20731 | USDCHF 0.9116 | GBPUSD 1.6279 | EURGBP 0.81353 |
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Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: Asia remained broadly unchanged after a savage selloff from the opening taking us down from 1.3250 just before the close in NYK to below 1.3190 as CTA covered long EURJPY positions in front of BoJ announcements, from there we moved slowly higher to the 1.3230 area as the announcement received mixed reactions with the predicted aim at 2% inflation missing from the release. London walked in and immediately started to buy on the back of no real news and took us back to the 1.3300 level ready for the NYK guys to sell it off again to finish the day more or less around the 1.3250 level.
·        GBP: Steady gains for Cable over the session with very little to surprise, retail sales came in weaker than expected however, I think I say this every year but people do tend to start buying earlier in the year to spread the cost and time. We moved off the lows in Asia of 1.6240 area pushing above 1.6260 pre London and we saw early NYK guys buying to take us above 1.6295 for the first look at the 1.6300 this year only to drop back as USD rallied a little post Philly survey we ended the day close to the 1.6280 for a solid move up and with GBP holding its own against the Euro for the day for a change. Talk of a 1.6300 expiry for the day going off the board would probably explain the attempt to break the level.
·        JPY: Rollercoaster ride for the USDJPY as early EURJPY longs cut their exposure pre BoJ announcement, as mentioned not what people were expecting I think some were expecting more fire and brimstone however, those that sold knew something was awry, in the event while stimulus was increased the planned 2% inflation target went unmentioned and USDJPY moved quickly higher to above 84.30 before failing and falling back towards the 84.00 level again, we moved into London just below the level and London had little input and we languished below 84.00 for several hours before early NYK started to pick up and chase the market back to above 84.40 moving to the close just below.
·        AUD: The Oz remained quiet throughout the day moving quietly in Asia from the opening levels to below 1.0470 and holding we started to pick up only in late Asia and into early London pushing to attempt a push through 1.0500 however, we failed and slipped back when NYK entered the market to make fresh lows below 1.0465 before settling on a mid-range around the 1.0480
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q3 A 0.20% | C 0.40% | P 0.60% | R 0.30%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Conference Board Leading Index Nov A 1.10% | P 1.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ Rate Decision A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%Â Â Â
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Nov A 2.95B | C 2.25B | P 2.82B | R 2.73B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI M/M Nov A -0.10% | C -0.20% | P 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI Y/Y Nov A 1.40% | C 1.40% | P 1.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Nov A 0.00% | C 0.40% | P -0.80% | R -0.70%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Oct A 0.70% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CAD      Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Oct  A 0.50% | C 0.20% | P 0.00%   Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP (Annualized) Q3 (T) A 3.10% | C 2.80% | P 2.70%Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q3 (T) A 2.70% | C 2.70% | P 2.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 15) A 361K | C 359K | P 343KÂ Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Dec (A) A -27 | C -26.5 | P -26.9Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Survey Dec A 8.1 | C -3 | P -10.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales Nov A 5.04M | C 4.90M | P 4.79MÂ Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Oct A 0.50% | C 2.30% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Nov A -0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -82B | C -73B | P 2BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
For today
USDJPY:
Topside: 84.50-84.80 light mix 84.80-85.20 medium offers
Downside 83.50-83.85 light bids EURUSD:
Topside: 1.3270-1.3310 light offers 1.3320-1.3350 light buy stops 1.3350-1.3380 medium mix
Downside: 1.3160-1.3190 light sell stops 1.3130-1.3160 light bids
EURJPY:
Topside: 112.00-112.30 light buy stops
Downside: Nothing of note
AUDUSD:
Topside: 1.0490-1.0520 light buy stops 1.0520-1.0550 light buy stops 1.0550-1.0580 medium buy stops
Downside1.0420-1.0435 light mix 1.0380-1.0410 light bids
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USD:
US house passes Republican fiscal cliff bill aimed at pressuring Obama
Second vote on taxes expected later on Thursday
US house abruptly recesses amid uncertainty if Republicans have the votes on tax plan
Unclear when US house will return all eating mince pies in Boehner’s office
No vote on Boehner’s plan B till after Christmas that was about 5mins after they said they’d get it afore Christmas
CNY:
To make Yuan more flexible to handle global QE
EUR:
Italy parliament approves budget law
Greek police clash with shopkeepers in Athens
Spain’s parliament formally approves tight 2013 budget
JPY:
Launces WTO dispute vs. China over stainless steel dumping
LDP’s Ishiba picks up the mantle for first one to announce the immortal words cautions against Yen’s excessive falls.
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·        EUR: A steady opening around the 1.3245 level and looking to edge higher when the US politicians chuck it all in and go have coffee and mince pies, talk about mess, S&P’s dropped 50 points instantly with talk of fat fingers triggering the problem, this spilled over into the FX market and we saw Euro’s drop fairly quickly over the next couple of hours on heavy trading, we eventually pushed down to 1.3180 before some semblance of order appeared across the markets. Since the drop we’ve stayed around the 1.3200 area with little going on.
·        GBP: No different than the Euro, whether it was the news or the reaction in S&P’s the result was the same we fell from a quiet opening moving to the highs above 1.6280 then bang off we came over the next couple of hours trading to a low into the low 1.6240’s GBP held better than the Euro and we saw a 15tic decline in the cross reflecting this.
·        JPY: USDJPY was caught up in the selloff from 84.44 area with EURJPY selling impacting as stops were triggered in the melee, that saw USDJPY eventually move through 84.00 otherwise a quiet news day with the market now stuck back below 84.00.
·        AUD: Same old same old, we opened around the 1.0480 level and moved quickly lower with everything else touching below 1.0440 briefly before slow clawing back above 1.0450 on a quiet day for the pair.
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Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Sentiment Dec A -29 | C -25 | P -22Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Sentiment Jan C 5.9 | P 5.9Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Nov C 14.0B | P 6.5B
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (GBP) Q3 C -14.1B | P -20.8BÂ Â Â Â
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q3 (F) C 1.00% | P 1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Oct C 1.10% | P 1.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Oct C 0.10% | P 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Nov C -0.10% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Nov C 1.00% | P 1.20%Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC CPI Core M/M Nov C 0.10% | P 0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC CPI Core Y/Y Nov C 1.00% | P 1.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income Nov C 0.30% | P 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending Nov C 0.40% | P -0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M Nov C -0.10% | P 0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Nov C 1.60% | P 1.70%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Nov C 0.10% | P 0.10%Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Nov C 1.60% | P 1.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:55Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Dec (F) C 75 | P 74.5
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Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
EUR:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32531 | 1.31801
GBP:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.62829 | 1.62412
JPY: Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 84.445 | 83.86
AUD:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.04836 | 1.04385
CHF: Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9158 | 0.91053
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98987 | 0.97833
NZD: Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8346 | 82999
EURCHF: Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20765 | 1.20663
EURGBP: Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81396 | 0.81151
EURJPY:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.787 | 110.688
Have a good Christmas, I intend too.
Andy