Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 92.225 | EURUSD 1.31357 | EURJPY 121.143 | AUDUSD 1.0234 | NZDUSD 0.82368 | USDCAD 1.02319 | EURCHF 1.22117 | USDCHF 0.92961 | GBPUSD 1.51579 | EURGBP 0.86656 |

 

Harry Hindsight

·         EUR: The market rose steadily throughout the day as volumes were light during the Asian hours in particular, were trading was contained in a reasonably tight range, moving down to the low 1.3040’s and rising just above the 1.3070’s with EURJPY being the main move in the session, once we moved towards the London session trading started to pick up and the market broke slowly higher touching above 1.3090 as the London market officially opened with improvements on confidence numbers showing we saw the Euro pick up and move through the 1.3100 level touching above 1.3120 a couple of times before profit taking kicked in and sellers in general appeared before the US data came out, we moved back to the 1.3070 level a decent set of numbers in the US had the usual effect underlying the steady growth in the US so risk was back on and Euro continued to rise over the session, light stops were seen triggered through the 1.3120 level and the market eventually broke higher to the upper 1.3140’s before finding some further resistance and running into the close.

·         GBP: Cable struggled with low volumes and a resurgent Euro for the day, opening in Asia around the 1.5130 it struggled to maintain any strength dropping slowly to below the 1.5100 level to 1.5080 area before starting to move slowly higher, having traded the lows it slowly moved in line with the Euro to a greater extent, with only a minor blip on the data releases, by early NYK we’d moved above 1.5180 before running into decent US data release and falling back against both the USD and Euro, interest to Sell EURGBP held Cable up when it fell back with it unable to move below 1.5120 again holding that area for a few hours before beginning to rise again to above 1.5160 into the close in NYK.

·         JPY: USDJPY moves over the past few days has managed to side line a number of macro players who’ve been whipped in and out on quick moves that have rebounded on them, which would explain the low volumes over the past 24hrs compared with the first couple of days, we slowly moved down over the course of the Asian session opening around the 91.90 and rising to 92.20 in early trading and then started the down move trading quickly to below 91.70 then slowly drifting from that point on moving into London about 10 tics lower again US data dominated and we saw the pair again dip to make the lows for the day just above 91.10 before finding a bit of support and slowly rising over the middle part of the session to touch above 92.30, again volumes are not great and only late into the session did we see macro sellers entering the fray selling above the 92.00. Having topped out we held around the 92.20 level into the close.

·         AUD: The Oz struggled throughout the day with it now seemingly disassociated from the Euro and JPY it struggled to move beyond the opening levels and having opened around the 1.0230 level drifted through the day breaking the 1.0200 level and stalling just below 1.0190 where we traded for the best part of the London session, US figures had little effect on the market although the Oz started to gain smalls pushing to above 1.0210 over the course of an hour from the US releases but still remained fixed with the 1.0200 level, Sydney generally come to their desks around 1800GMT and today was noticeable as the time coincided with increase buying in the Oz in expectations for the Capex numbers out later in the session, we moved to the highs of the day above 1.0240 settling back slightly into the close.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R 

NZD       Trade Balance (NZD) Jan A -305M | C 110M | P 486M | R 534M

JPY         Retail Trade Y/Y Jan A -1.10% | C -1.40% | P 0.40% | R 0.30%

CHF        UBS Consumption Indicator Jan A 1.18 | P 1.34  

EUR        German GfK Consumer Sentiment Mar A 5.9 | C 5.9 | P 5.8         

CHF        KOF Leading Indicator Feb A 1.03 | C 1.00 | P 1.05 | R 1.12

EUR        Eurozone M3 Y/Y Jan A 3.50% | C 3.20% | P 3.30% | R 3.40%

GBP       GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) A -0.30% | C -0.30% | P -0.30% 

GBP       Index of Services 3M/3M Dec A -0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.60%         

EUR        Eurozone Economic Confidence Feb A 91.1 | C 89.7 | P 89.2        

EUR        Eurozone Industrial Confidence Feb A -11.2 | C -13.5 | P -13.9    

EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Feb (F) A -23.6 | C -23.6 | P -23.9           

EUR        Eurozone Services Confidence Feb A -5.4 | C -8.8 | P -7.7

USD       Durable Goods Orders Jan A -5.20% | C -4.00% | P 4.60%              

USD       Durables Ex Transportation Jan A 1.90% | C -0.40% | P 1.30%      

USD       Pending Home Sales M/M Jan A 4.50% | C 2.00% | P -4.30%        

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A 1.1M | C 2.4M | P 4.1M

For today

USDJPY:
Topside: 92.30-92.60 light mix 92.60-92.95 light offers 3.00-93.30 light buy stops
Downside: 91.20-91.50 light bids

EURUSD:
Topside: 1.3160-1.3200 light offers 1.3200-1.3230 light mix 1.3240-1.3270 light buy stops
Downside: 1.3090-1.3120 light mix 1.3050-1.3085 light sell stops 1.3020-1.3050 light bids

AUDUSD:
Topside:  1.0300-1.0330 medium buy stops
Downside: 1.0170-1.0200 light mix 1.0160-1.0170 medium bids  1.0100-1.0150 light bids

 

JPY:

Japan government nominates Kuroda, Iwata, Nakaso to BOJ board-lawmaker

BOJ’s Kiuchi says to consider more easing as needed

Aso Says BOJ Should Avoid Foreign Bond Buying as it Affects FX

Aso: Want New BOJ Chief to Work To Beat Deflation In Line With Joint Statement

Japan Feb manufacturing PMI rises to 48.5 from 47.7 in Jan

Japan industrial output rises 1.0% MoM in January

Japan EcoMin: Japan Remains Committed To Fiscal Reform Goals

Japan fund managers cut stocks, bonds but lift properties

Japan Jan housing starts rises 5% YoY -govt

AUD:

Australian 4Q New Capex -1.2% Vs. +1.0% Consensus

RBA Models Show A$ Was up to 15% Over valued Late 2012

RBA Says Up to 34 Central Banks Hold Australian Dollar Reserves

Australia’s Opposition Flags Hands-Off Approach to Currency

USD:

Fed’s Fisher Calls for QE Cut to Avoid Stimulus ‘Overkill’

NZD:

NZ business confidence surges in February – ANZ survey

GBP:

U.K. Consumer Confidence Steady as Financial Outlook Improves

 

·         EUR: The Euro rose quickly on the back of EURJPY cross buying in the early part of the session and into the Tokyo opening pushing from the opening area of 1.3135 to above 1.3160, before settling down into a tight range of 1.3140-1.3157 with very little movement or volume going through, we saw some light EURAUD selling the market as the Oz capex data went through but overall a dull day.

·         GBP: Cable broadly speaking remained flat throughout the session with the opening below 1.5160 being the low and trading steadily higher to 1.5178 before declining slightly on EURGBP buying towards the 6am cut off to just above the opening levels,

·         JPY: We opened around the 92.15 level and started trading higher from the start with EURJPY buying being the main focus pushing above 92.40 pre Tokyo and continuing the move once Tokyo was open taking the market to above 92.65 for a brief stretch, before steadily declining over the session back towards the opening levels and currently holding around the 92.30 level, early comments on BoJ and Kuroda helped to buoy the market in the early part but then started to fizzle out as we moved further in the session.

·         AUD: From the opening around 1.0230 we saw some dodgy moves probably down to electronic black books dealing on the back of the data released with an initial spike lower to 1.0200 areas for the home sales number, before moving straight back then into the Tokyo session we had the capex numbers with the same result a spike lower presumably on the Capital expenditure to below 1.0200 and immediately back up and trading in quick legs to successive highs as weak stops were run and resistance eroded taking us ultimately to a high above 1.0285 once the run was over the market stopped in it tracks and has remained above the 1.0270 mark and below the highs for several hours.

 

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R 

NZD       Building Permits M/M Jan A -0.40% | P 9.40%    

JPY         Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Feb A 48.5 | P 47.7

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Jan (P) A 1.00% | C 1.60% | P 2.40% 

AUD       HIA New Home Sales M/M Jan A 4.20% | P 6.20%            

00:01     GBP       GfK Consumer Sentiment Feb A -26 | C -26 | P -26          

AUD       Private sector credit YoY Jan A 3.6% | C 3.7% | P 3.6%

AUD       Private Capital expenditure A -1.2% | C 1.0% | P 1.1%

AUD       Private sector credit MoM Jan A 0.2% | C 0.3% | P 0.4%

JPY         Housing Starts Y/Y Jan A 5.00% | C 8.90% | P 10.00%       

06:45     CHF        GDP Q/Q Q4 P 0.60%     

08:55     EUR        German Unemployment Change Feb C -5K | P -16K        

08:55     EUR        German Unemployment Rate Feb C 6.80% | P 6.80%     

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI M/M Jan C -1.00% | P 0.40%          

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jan C 2.00% | P 2.00%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Jan C 1.50% | P 1.50%   

13:00     EUR        German CPI M/M Feb (P) C 0.7 | P -0.5 

13:00     EUR        German CPI Y/Y Feb (P) C 1.6 | P 1.7       

13:30     USD       GDP (Annualized) Q4 (S) C 0.60% | P -0.10%       

13:30     USD       GDP Price Index Q4 (S) C 0.60% | P 0.60%            

13:30     CAD       Industrial Product Price M/M Jan C 0.20% | P 0.00%        

13:30     CAD       Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jan C 1.10% | P -2.00% 

13:30     USD       Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 24) C 361K | P 362K     

14:45     USD       Chicago PMI Feb C 54 | P 55.6    

15:30     USD       Natural Gas Storage P -127B

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

                                Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               92.68 | 92.17

EUR/USD             1.3163 | 1.3129

EUR/JPY               121.82 | 121.07

AUD/USD            1.0286 | 1.0192

NZD/USD             0.8324 | 0.8254

USD/CAD             1.0238 | 1.0225

EUR/CHF              1.2225 | 1.22045

USD/CHF             0.9298 | 0.928

GBP/USD             1.5178 | 1.5160

EUR/GBP             0.86755 | 0.8661

Good luck

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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