Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 98.154 | EURUSD 1.30521 | EURJPY 128.126 | AUDUSD 1.03014 | NZDUSD 0.84055 | USDCAD 1.02595 | EURCHF 1.21724 | USDCHF 0.93262 | GBPUSD 1.52797 | EURGBP 0.85421 |

 

Harry Hindsight

·         EUR: After a quiet start opening around the 1.3035 mark and trading quietly for the first few hours into the Tokyo session we began to pick up trading above the 1.3050 with Middle Eastern buyers seen entering the market touching just above the 1.3060 level before moving into the London session, initially poor retail sales below expectations helped the Euro move higher as the EURGBP cross moved to above the 0.8575 levels however, the rally in Euro’s to just above 1.3075 was soon stopped when initial claims was released with a slightly better than expected number forcing pair to 1.3025 leading indicators reversed the decline and we moved quickly on a short squeeze to the 1.3095 levels, a failure by the Italians to vote in a President on the first vote bought the market back to the 1.3050 level but to be honest the last person to get in on a first vote had the second name of Ceaser. We went out around the 1.3050 mark on very quiet trading into the close
GBP: Another pair with a quiet start in Asia opening around the 1.5240 area and staying close to the area in the first half and then rising above 1.5250 in the second, into the grey market we saw some light buying in front of the numbers, one would second guess that we were expecting a poor Retail sales number so the risk would be to the upside, needless to say we got a bad one and worse than was expected and the buyers were caught long for a time as the market dropped to the 1.5220, not really far enough to trigger weak stops. The market then began to rise and we saw some shorts caught as the market moved up with the Euro initially however, helped by a mixture on US data and then the late failure to vote in a President in Italy EURGBP was reversed and we saw the Cable touch above the 1.5310 level before drifting back into the close with a half decent recovery given the data as we closed around the 1.5280 levels.
JPY: USDJPY opened just below the 98.00 area and struggled into early Tokyo trading down to below the 97.70 level on mostly fixing supply triggering minor stops, with Data in line with expectations th retail players again came to the rescue and we saw buying appearing taking the market to trade above the 98.30 level by mid-session, as we ran towards the London session we again found ourselves below the starting point but the rise in Euro’s attracted minor EURJPY buying and we moved to above the 98.50 level with the US data causing mixed trading, we held the 98.20 level for the greater part of the session after this and closed around those levels.

·         AUD: The AUD had mixed fortunes throughout the day with early sellers pushing the Oz to below 1.0270 at one point as commodity prices were hit by the announcement in China that human to human transmission of bird flu had been noted, the fall was short lived and the hunt for yield saw retail Japan again active in the AUDJPY cross helping to take it back above the 1.0310 level, London was no different with some loose buying driving the market higher as  Euro moved, with a mixed review of the US data it was surprising to see that sellers appeared in NYK in sufficient numbers to sell the Oz back down below 1.0300 and we struggled from then on in a 25point range to close around the 1.0300 levels, Macro names were seen as strong sellers during the day.

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R 

JPY         Trade Balance (JPY) Mar  A -0.92T | C -0.92T | P -1.09T   

AUD       NAB Business Confidence Q1 A 2 | P -5 

GBP       Retail Sales M/M Mar A -0.70% | C -0.50% | P 2.10%       

USD       Initial Jobless Claims (APR 13) A 352K | C 347K | P 346K | R 348K

USD       Philly Fed Survey Apr A 1.3 | C 3 | P 2     

USD       Leading Indicators Mar A -0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.50%      

For today

USDJPY:
Topside: 98.70-99.00 light offers 99.00-99.30 light offers
Downside: 97.60-97.90 light mix 97.20-97.55 medium sized sell stops

EURUSD:
Topside: 1.3070-1.3100 light offers 1.3110-1.3140 medium buy stops 1.3140-1.3170 medium buy stops
Downside: 1.3000-1.3040 light mix 1.2970-1.3000 light bids

EURJPY:
Topside: Nothing of note
Downside: 127.00-127.30 light bids AUDUSD:
Topside: 1.0320-1.0350 light offers 1.0360-1.0390 light offers
Downside: 1.0260-1.0290 light sell stops 1.0230-1.0260 light mix

 

JPY:

Aso Says Japan Policies Escaped Criticism at G-20 Meeting

BOJ Kuroda: Will Explain to G-20 That BOJ Policy Isn’t Targeting Forex

USD/JPY:

U.S. Treasury: U.S., Japanese Finance Officials Affirm Importance of Forex Vows

Japan on verge of entering Trans-Pacific trade talks sources

Magnitude 7.0 quake recorded north of Japan USGS

JPY/KRW:

South Korea’s Hyun Says Yen Plunge Bigger Issue Than North Korea

Korea Finance Minister Questions Sustainability of Japan Stimulus Boost

CNY:

China Mulls A-Share Addition to Global Indexes: Securities News

AUD/NZD:

IMF Official: Australian, New Zealand Currencies About 10% Overvalued

AUD:

Australia’s Top Rating Safe from Looming Deficits, Says Moody’s

EUR:

Liikanen Says ECB Looking at All Options, Talouselaemae Reports

USD:

Gunshots heard on Massachusetts Institute of Technology campus -school website

 

 

·         EUR: Immensely quiet from the opening and for the first 4 hours or so with very little going through, we opened around the 1.3050 area and struggled to push through 1.3055 it wasn’t until into the mid-session than the market started to pick up in a mirror image of yesterday with what appears to be Middle Eastern interest buying it to the 1.3075 area into some light resistance before settling around the 1.3065 level as we move to London.

·         GBP: As with the Euro we saw some buying in GBPJPY early in the session taking Cable to the 1.5290 areas just be Tokyo opened but once the demand was over the market dropped back to the 1.5280 opening levels and we didn’t see much in the way of movement until mid-session where small fund selling pushed the Cable below 1.5274 before the Middle Eastern interest in Euro move the Cable to just below 1.5300 with EURGBP cross declining 10 points to the low 0.8540’s at the moment we hang around the mid 1.5290;’s with little action in the market.

·         JPY: The USDJPY slowly rose into the opening of Tokyo touching the 98.35 level from the 98.15 close in NYK, Tokyo sold smalls in the initial trading however, EURJPY buying and comments from an IMF official that 100 will be trading in May helped the market rally in both the USDJPY and crystal ball market, taking us above the 98.65 before silly season settled down a little, not that I doubt it will get there just that we’ve been close this month and there was something large protecting the level, once that was over with we settled down to a quiet session with very little in the way of volumes going through either in the early part, or the fading later part as we hold just above the 98.50 level.

·         AUD: Today was about the hunt for yield again with early trading taking the market from the 1.0300 level to test the downside bids around 1.0280, then retail Japan opened and we saw some significant AUDJPY buying from them taking the AUD to above the 1.0330 level and holding just off the highs.

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R | All GMT

CNY        Conference Board Leading Index Mar A 0.00% | P 1.30%              

06:00     EUR        German PPI M/M Mar C 0.10% | P -0.10%           

06:00     EUR        German PPI Y/Y Mar C 0.70% | P 1.20% 

08:00     EUR        Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Feb C 13.9B | P 14.8B 

12:30     CAD       Wholesale Sales M/M Feb C 0.50% | P 0.30%     

12:30     CAD       CPI M/M Mar C 0.50% | P 1.20%               

12:30     CAD       CPI Y/Y Mar C 0.20% | P 1.20%   

12:30     CAD       BoC CPI Core M/M Mar C 1.00% | P 0.80%           

12:30     CAD       BoC CPI Core Y/Y Mar C 0.20% | P 1.40%               

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

                                Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               98.68 | 98.10

EUR/USD             1.3076 | 1.30475

EUR/JPY               128.94 | 128.08

AUD/USD            1.0334 | 1.0281

NZD/USD             0.8452 | 0.8403

USD/CAD             1.0258 | 1.0240

EUR/CHF              1.2175 | 1.2169

USD/CHF             0.93285 | 0.9310

GBP/USD             1.5298 | 1.5273

EUR/GBP             0.85485 | 0.85365

Good luck

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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