Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY  97.434 | EURUSD 1.31672 | EURJPY 128.301 | AUDUSD 1.03715 | NZDUSD 0.85675 | USDCAD 1.00734 | EURCHF 1.22371 | USDCHF 0.92942 | GBPUSD 1.55313 | EURGBP 0.84779 |

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: We started the day quietly with parts of Asia still taking holidays, moving from the 1.3100 area slowly lower into the 1.3090’s and we didn’t really see much movement until Early Eastern Europeans started to move into the market taking the Euro to above 1.3120 in the grey hours, having peaked the market reversed quickly and fell back on poor German numbers falling initially to the 1.3070 level before continuing the move after a brief respite, falling away to just above the 1.3050 level as further European data hit the wires, we stayed around the 1.3070 level from there into the NYK opening and the US posted its data, a fall in employment costs upset the market with the perception of a squeeze on retail sales likely and the Euro moved swiftly higher pushing above the 1.3180 level with the Chicago PMI’s adding to the woe, we dropped back a little from the highs however, the market retained most of its gains finishing around the 1.3170 level into the close.
  • GBP: Cable opened just above the 1.5500 level before dropping back slightly on reasonable volumes for the pair during Asia with CB selling pushing it to the 1.5490 area before running into some bids, once through the level though it extended its losses to just beyond the 1.5480 level were significant amounts changed hands, we slowly began to rise to push up to a high in the grey hours before Early Europeans began selling the Euro, EURGBP weakened at this point and we saw the cross move down to the 0.8425 level however, GBP was dragged lower by the Euro and Cable touched the 1.5470 level before rallying over the course of the London markets to peak above 1.5510, before again being pulled lower by the Euro, once we moved into the NYK session the market improved for the Cable and moved swiftly to above the 1.5570 area, EURGBP rallied sharply to the 0.8485 levels as Cable was unable to keep up with the Euro move, we eventually drifted lower on Cable from the peak to settle just above the 1.5530 area for the day.
  • JPY: With holiday season biting, the USDJPY continued its slide, with early trading taking the market from the 97.80 to above the 98.10 level with end of month flows rushing to finish only to see fixing over and the steady decline to the 97.70, we held the level into the opening of London before the drop in Euro triggered minor stops in EURJPY and USDJPY again started to move quickly to the downside before finding a period of respite in NYK however, even there it was short lived and we saw a spike lower to the 97.00 level before rallying back to the 97.40 area where we went out.
  • AUD: The Oz opened around the 1.0350 area and struggled in early Asia, dropping back to the 1.0340 in quiet trading before heading into London with a spring in its step as the Euro dropped back the Oz seemed to be the safe haven ploy pushing up to above 1.0370 in early trading, once however, the initial switch had been completed and EURAUD selling was out of the way it like many other currencies the drag of the Euro affected the AUD and it dropped back into the NYK opening to below 1.0330 before rallying strongly once the US data was released touching the 1.0385 level, we slowly drifted lower from that point into the sloe just above the 1.0370 levels.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R

NZD       Building Permits MoM Mar A -9.10% | C 2.00% | P 1.90% | R 4.40%
GBP       GfK Consumer Sentiment Apr A -27 | C -26 | P -26
JPY         Household Spending YoY Mar A 5.20% | C 1.60% | P 0.80%
JPY         Unemployment Rate Mar A 4.10% | C 4.20% | P 4.30%
JPY         Industrial Production MoM Mar (P) A 0.20% | C 0.40% | P 0.60%
JPY         Retail Trade Y/Y Mar  A -0.30% | C 0.40% | P -2.30% | R -2.20%
JPY         Housing Starts Y/Y Mar A 7.30% | C 6.30% | P 3.00%
EUR        German Retail Sales MoM Mar A -0.30% | C -0.20% | P 0.40% | R -0.60%
EUR        German GfK Consumer Sentiment May A 6.2 | C 5.9 | P 5.9 | R 6
EUR        German Unemployment Change Apr A 4K | C 2K | P 13K | R 12K
EUR        German Unemployment Rate Apr A 6.90% | C 6.90% | P 6.90%
GBP       Mortgage Approvals Mar A 53.5K | C 52.7K | P 51.7K | R 51.9K
GBP       M4 Money Supply MoM Mar A -0.90% | C 0.40% | P -0.50%
EUR        Eurozone CPI Estimate YoY Apr A 1.20% | C 1.60% | P 1.70%
EUR        Eurozone Unemployment Rate Mar A 12.10% | C 12.10% | P 12.00%
CAD       GDP MoM Feb A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
CAD       Industrial Product Price MoM Mar A 0.10% | C 0.00% | P 1.40%
CAD       Raw Materials Price Index MoM Mar A -1.70% | C -0.10% | P 2.20
USD       Employment Cost Index Q1 A 0.30% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%   
USD       S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 YoY Feb A 9.30% | C 9.00% | P 8.10%   
USD       Chicago PMI Apr A 49 | C 52.5 | P 52.4       
USD       Consumer Confidence Apr A 68.1 | C 60.3 | P 59.7       

 

For today

USDJPY
Topside: 97.40-97.70 light buy stops  97.80-98.10 medium offers
Downside: 97.00-97.30 light mix 96.70-97.00 light mix 96.20-96.50 medium sell stops

EURUSD
Topside: 1.3180-1.3210 medium offers  1.3220-1.3250 light buy stops
Downside: 1.3120-1.3150 light bids 1.3080-1.3110 light bids

EURJPY
Topside: 128.50-128.80 light offers
Downside: 127.80-128.10 light sell stops 127.00-127.30 light sell stops

AUDUSD
Topside: 1.0370-1.0400 light offers  1.0400-1.0430 light offers
Downside: 1.0320-1.0350 light bids 1.0290-1.0320 medium bids

CNY:
China official manufacturing PMI dips to 50.6 in April
JPY:
Japan’s Full Participation Unlikely in July TPP Talks -Kyodo
Japan March wages dip 0.6% YoY, overtime pay falls sharply
AUD:
Australia home prices dip in April, after upbeat Q1 -survey
Australia Performance of Manufacturing Index Falls 7.7 Pts In April Vs March to 36.7
Australia Plans Medicare Levy Hike As Election Looms

EUR: Another quiet session in Asia, with markets dulled by holiday season, Euro’s opened around the 1.3165 level and put in a move to the topside to just shy of 1.3178 as demand in EURJPY was the only highlight of the day before falling back to the starting levels and douching 1.3162 as we move towards the London market.
GBP: With movements contained within a 20 point range and volumes below normal we saw a similar pattern in Cable dipping in the first instance from 1.5533 area to the 1.5526 level before a rally as demand pushed the Cable higher to above 1.5546 before again dropping back to the starting levels once the demand was sated, we currently hold around the opening levels.
JPY: Without the local markets the USDJPY continues to struggle opening around the 97.43 areas we slowly dropped back into  supply for USDJPY opposing the demand for other crosses, USDJPY moved to around the 97.05 level before recovering to the mid 97.20’s were we currently hold with no one showing.
AUD:  Same story with Oz a quiet opening around the 1.0370 level dipping initially into the mid 60’s before rallying to above 1.0380 briefly and dropping back to the starting areas no particular types seen in a very quiet session.

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R | All GMT

CNY   Manufacturing PMI Apr A 50.6 | C 50.7 | P 50.9 
 JPY   Labour Cash Earnings YoY Mar A -0.60% | C -1.20% | P -0.70% 
08:30  GBP  PMI Manufacturing Apr C 48.5 | P 48.3 
12:15   USD  ADP Employment Change Apr A 153K | C 158K 
14:00  USD  Construction Spending MoM Mar C 0.70% | P 1.20% 
14:00  USD  ISM Manufacturing Apr C 51.1 | P 51.3 
14:00  USD  ISM Prices Paid Apr C 52.6 | P 54.5 
14:30  USD  Crude Oil Inventories P 0.9M 
18:00  USD  FOMC Rate Decision C 0.25% | P 0.25%

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

                                  Highs    Lows

EURUSD                1.3161 | 1.3179
USDJPY                97.05 | 97.47
AUDUSD              1.0364 | 1.0382
NZDUSD              0.8561 | 0.8580
USDCAD              1.0062 | 1.0076
GBPUSD               1.5528 | 1.5546
USDCHF              0.9290 | 0.9300
EURJPY              127.87 | 128.34
EURCHF             1.2237 | 1.2241
EURGBP             0.8475 | 0.8479

Good luck

Andy

 

 

 

 

 

 

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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