Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close Wellington open

USDJPY 94.103 94.20-30 | EURUSD 1.33435 1.3340-50 | EURJPY 125.545 125.75-85 | AUDUSD 0.95708 0.9570-80 | NZDUSD 0.80442 0.8045-55 | USDCAD 1.01745 1.0165-75 | EURCHF 1.22923 1.2290-1.2300 | USDCHF 0.92114 0.9210-20 | GBPUSD 1.57015 1.5700-10 | EURGBP 0.84982 0.8485-95 |

 

Weekend News

JPY:

BOJ to Raise Limit on Japanese REIT Purchases, Nikkei Says
Japan Aims to Encourage Visits by Wealthy Foreigners: Nikkei
Kuroda Says Bank of Japan Will Support Tohoku Reconstruction
Asahi to Ajinomoto CEOs Betting Abenomics Won’t Spur Inflation

JPY/IDR:

Mitsubishi Motors Plans 40b Yen Indonesia Plant: Nikkei
SGD:

Singapore Censures 20 Banks on Traders’ Bids to Manipulate Rates
EUR:

EU to Start U.S. Trade Talks as France Wins Film Exclusion
USD:

Detroit Peddles Its Municipal Assets to Avoid Record Bankruptcy
AUD:

Rudd as Leader Seen Boosting Labour in Elections, Poll Shows
CNY:

NDRC Researcher Wang Sees China 2013 GDP Growth at 7.5%-8%
Li Daokui: China Can See Growth Rebound if Reforms Implemented
China Shuts 30 Egg Plants for Toxic Additives, China news Reports

CNY/TWD:

China Further Relaxes Rules on Individual Tourism to Taiwan
China to Continue Buying Taiwan Flat Panels, Economic Daily Says
GBP:

Carney Gets Chance to Reshape BOE as Tucker Plans Departure
Cameron Plans Register to ‘Sweep Away’ Tax Secrecy in U.K.
TRY:

Erdogan Says Turkish Police Can Empty Out Gezi Park in Istanbul

 

 

Friday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R 

NZD       Business NZ Manufacturing Index May A 59.2 | C 54.5 | P 55.2

EUR        Eurozone CPI M/M May  A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P -0.10%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Y/Y May (F) A 1.40% | C 1.40% | P 1.20%

EUR        Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y May (F) A 1.20% | C 1.20% | P 1.20%

EUR        Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q1 A -0.50% | C -0.20% | P -0.30%

CAD       Manufacturing Shipments M/M Apr A -2.40% | C 0.30% | P -0.30%

USD       PPI M/M May A 0.50% | C 0.10% | P -0.70%

USD       PPI Y/Y May A 1.70% | C 1.40% | P 0.60%

USD       PPI Core M/M May A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%

USD       PPI Core Y/Y May A 1.70% | C 1.70% | P 1.70%

USD       Current Account Balance Q1 A -106.1B | C -$111.0B | P -$110.4B

USD       Net Long-Term TIC Flows Apr A -37.3B | C 35.0B | P -13.5B

USD       Industrial Production May A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P -0.50%

USD       Capacity Utilization May A 77.60% | C 77.80% | P 77.80%

USD       U. of Michigan Confidence Jun (P) A 82.7 | C 84.5 | P 84.5

 

For today

USDJPY:
Topside:  94.80-95.00 lots of light offers 95.20-95.60 light offers
Downside: 93.70-94.10 light mix 93.40-93.70 light sell stops 93.10-93.40 light bids

EURUSD:
Topside: 1.3380-1.3410 light mix 1.3410-1.3440 light mix 1.3440-1.3470 light buy stops
Downside: 1.3300-1.3320 light bids 1.3260-1.3290 light mix 1.3230-1.3260 light sell stops

EURJPY:
Topside: 126.60-126.90 light offers
Downside: Nothing of Note
AUDUSD:
Topside: 0.9620-30 medium offers

Downside: 0.9510-0.9540 light sell stops 0.9450-9480 light bids

 

JPY: Japan Seeks Tax Breaks for Corporate Investment This Year: Asahi

Abe Aims to Get 2/3 of Support for Constitutional Changes: Kyodo

CNY:

China banks buy net $17 bln FX for clients in May

CNY/USD:

China pressured U.S. University to make Chen Guangcheng leave, dissidents say

CZK:

Czech Premier to Resign On Monday

 

  • EUR: A reasonably quiet day with the market steadily drifting off from the highs just below 1.3360 in early Tokyo, we moved slowly lower with JPY strengthening and offers in EURJPY pressuring the Euro leg lower from which the market never really recovered, trading slowly down into the 1.3320 areas where we currently see light bids holding.
  • GBP: More or less a mirror image of the Euro’s with very little movement in the pair drifting from the highs in early Tokyo just above the 1.5730 area to the current levels just below the 1.5700 were for the moment we are holding as the Euro works through the bids.
  • JPY: USDJPY opened around the closing areas of Friday and has traded high and strongly throughout the session moving to above the 94.80 level where we see the first concentrated areas of offers holding. We move towards London holding close to the highs reversing some of Friday’s losses however, it should be noted that volumes are less than normal and one has to believe we are moving into summer liquidity.
  • AUD: It would seem that the Japanese retail market was back on the carry trades today with the Oz moving from the opening levels around the 0.9570 area moving quickly above the 0.9600 level in line with weakening JPY. We topped out around the 0.9620 area where offers are congregated and the USDJPY leg took over the rise as AUDJPY was back in favour moving a big figure over the course of the session. Overall thought the volumes were more in line with summer and not what we’ve seen over the past few months. The Oz for the moment remains between this 0.9610-20 level as we head towards London.

Today’s data

Actual = A Consensus = C  Previous = P Timings GMT

NZD       Westpac NZ Consumer Confidence Q2 A 116.6 | P 110.8

GBP       Rightmove House Prices M/M Jun A 1.20% | P 2.10%

JPY         Tertiary Industry Index M/M Apr A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P -0.90% | R -0.20%

9:00        EUR        Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Apr C 21.2B | P 18.7B

12:30     CAD       International Securities Transactions (CAD) Apr C 3.00B | P 1.19B

13:00     CAD       Existing Home Sales M/M May P 0.60%

14:00     USD       NAHB Housing Market Index Jun C 45 | P 44

 

Ranges as of 6am London time including Sydney open

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               94.84 | 94.08

EUR/USD             1.3358 | 1.3319

EUR/JPY               126.35 | 125.72

AUD/USD            0.9623 | 0.9538

NZD/USD             0.8092 | 0.8036

USD/CAD             1.0179 | 1.0155

EUR/CHF              1.2312 | 1.2300

USD/CHF             0.9243 | 0.9205

GBP/USD             1.5734 | 1.5694

EUR/GBP             0.8492 | 0.8483

 

Stay lucky

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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