Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close Wellington open

USDJPY 99.322 99.10-20 | EURUSD 1.35274 1.3540-545 | EURJPY 134.342 134.18-37 | AUDUSD 0.93974 0.9358-60 | NZDUSD 0.83652 0.8341-80 | USDCAD 1.03056 1.0286-1.0305 | EURCHF 1.23156 1.2330-35 | USDCHF 0.91052 0.9091-0.9120 | GBPUSD 1.60055 1.6011-32 | EURGBP 0.8451 0.8436-51 |

 

Weekend News

EUR:

Merkel Asks for Third Term as Steinbrueck Seeks Election Upset
Merkel Says German Election Will Be Close so ‘Every Vote Counts’
Steinbrueck Says Euro’s Failure Would Hurt German Business
Most Greeks Favour Loan Deal Over Leaving Euro Area, Poll Shows
Spain Regional Rescue Fund May Add EU4.8b to 2013 Aid, Pais Says
Bank of Spain May Change Covered Bond Rules, Expansion Says
France to Tax EDF Nuclear Output for Energy Shift to Renewables
USD:

Bullard Says Taper Possible Next Month after Close QE Decision
Republican Clash with Obama adds Risk of Government Shutdown
Assad Submits Toxic Weapons List as UN Prepares for Debate
JPY:

Japan’s Abe to Announce Sales Tax Increase Oct. 1: Asahi
Japan Post to Sell Hotels, Hospitals before Share Sale: Nikkei
Tepco to Pursue Restart of Niigata Nuclear Plant, Nikkei Says
CNY:

Bo’s Life Term Is Political Death Sentence as Xi Marshals Power
CNY: China to Import 300 Million Tons of Crude This Year, Xinhua Says

CNY/USD:

U.S. Exports to China to Reach $450B by 2022: Chinese Minister
TWD/CNY/HKD:

Typhoon Usagi Lashes Taiwan as China, Hong Kong Threatened
AUD/IDR:

Australia, Indonesia Move toward Infrastructure-Finance Market
CHF:

Fewer Foreign Companies Setting Up in Switzerland, NZZ Reports

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: The market opened around the 1.3530 are and rose slowly through the session to nearly make 1.3540 during Asia. Once the market moved into London the market started to move around a little more initially dropping to the 1.3515 level, with UK’s PBSR number sending EURGBP lower to close to the 0.8420 area from the 0.8440 opening areas. The market recovered once the number was taken in light of the previous day’s retail sales numbers. Euro’s then quickly put in a high print just above the 1.3540 area. This sort of movement continued through the day in tight choppy trading with a low print below the 1.3500 level into the NYK session however, it all remained fairly tight and eventually settled just below the opening levels.
  • GBP: Asia remained quiet opening around the 1.6030 area and a slow rise into the grey hours where the market started to pick up a little into the PSBR number taking the market to above the 1.6065 level before rejecting the topside and moving back to the opening level. From that point it was all downhill as the market closed out some of the long positions in front of a weekend that was bound to have comments at some stage of tapering. The market closed just above the 1.6000 having tested the downside a couple of times to the 1.5990 area.
  • JPY: USDJPY ranged over the day in a tight range unfortunately not in Asia. Where the market topped out above 99.55 and traded down to the 99.20 level, London took over and was very little different with a tighter range until NYK opened and the market made its moves to the topside, twice we pushed above the 99.65 before running into some strong offers. Having failed the topside into med NYK the market then reverted to the 99.40 level close to where we started and we moved into a tight range for the close around 99.35.
  • AUD: The AUD did as much if not less than the rest especially in Asia, the market opened 0.9440 pushing for a high just short of the 0.9460, the move into the London session with the market absorbing the sound bites from various RBA officials on the disappointment over what another countries proposed not to do. The market fell back initially to below 0.9430 before taking several further legs lower to make a low of 0.9380 before finding some support to finish quietly in the 0.9400 area.

 

Friday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R 

GBP       Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Aug A 11.5B | C 11.9B | P -1.6B

CAD       CPI M/M Aug A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%

CAD       CPI Y/Y Aug A 1.10% | C 1.10% | P 1.30%

CAD       BoC CPI Core M/M Aug A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.00%

CAD       BoC CPI Core Y/Y Aug A 1.30% | C 1.20% | P 1.40%

EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Sep (A) A -15 | C -14.5 | P -15.6

 

For today

USDJPY:
Topside: 99.60-99.80 medium offers 99.80-100.00 light offers 100.00-100.30 light offers
Downside: 99.00-99.10 medium bids 98.70.99.00 light stops 98.50-98.70 light mix 98.30-98.50 light sell stops 98.00-98.25 medium bids

EURUSD:
Topside: 1.3570-1.3600 light mix 1.3600-1.3640 light offers
Downside: 1.3500-1.3520 light bids 1.3470-1.3480 light stops 1.3400-1.3425 light bids
EURJPY:
Topside: 134.80-135.20 light mix
Downside: 133.40-133.80 light bids

AUDUSD:
Topside: 0.9435-0.9450 light offers 0.9450-0.9490 light mix
Downside: 0.9300-0.9320 light bids

 

CNY:

Sept HSBC PMI hits 6-mth high of 51.2, adds to economic momentum

PBOC fixes yuan mid-point at record 6.1475/dollar

China says willing to help in Syria chemical weapons process

Shanghai FTZ No Direct Threat to Offshore Yuan Hubs: Lord Mayor

EUR:

Merkel Gets Biggest Victory since Kohl’s Reunification Vote

JPY/CAD:

Japan’s Abe to Meet Canada’s Harper on Shale Gas Import: Nikkei

 

  • EUR: The market opened on the highs around the 1.3544 area having touched as high as 1.3554 during the pre-market with a small squeeze in the EURAUD. From that point the market filled the gap almost instantly moving quickly to trade below 1.3530 then trading in the 1.3530-35 area for the move into a non-existent Tokyo market. With the release of the HSBC PMI for CNY we saw the Euro drop to its lows as the AUD rallied from its lows squeezing the early shorts from pre-market. The Euro touched just above the 1.3520 in the most active part of the session before moving back to the 1.3530 area as we move to the London opening. With all but the final count to finish the German election Merkel looks to have gained another term in office with a good majority.
  • GBP: A little bit of a dip from the opening around the 1.6010 level to trade just below the 1.6000 as markets reacted from a moving AUD and JPY in pre-market trading. From that point the market moved higher slowly to move above the 1.6030 before holding in the 1.6020 area for the remainder of the session.
  • JPY: USDJPY opened around the 99.20 right on decent bids with pre-market trading in AUDJPY doing a lot of work before moving into a Tokyo session that is out on holiday for Autumnal Equinox day. The market actually spent much of the time pushing slowly down through those bids holding the 99.10 levels.
  • AUD: The pre-open saw the Oz hit lows of 0.9343 areas as cross Yen related selling entered the market however, the market managed to move back to open some 30 pips from Fridays close. The market really didn’t take much time in moving back and filling in the gap as we moved into the Tokyo sessions and having reached the 0.9400 we stalled for a short period until the release of the CNY numbers and AUD moved quickly to above the 0.9435 level to make the highs and hold around the 0.9420 as we move to the London session.

Today’s data

Actual = A Consensus = C  Previous = P Timings GMT

CNY        HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Sep A 51.2 | C 50.9 | P 50.1

07:00     EUR        French PMI Manufacturing Sep (P) C 50.1 | P 49.7

07:00     EUR        French PMI Services Sep (P) C 49.4 | P 48.9

07:30     EUR        German PMI Manufacturing Sep (A) C 52 | P 51.8

07:30     EUR        German PMI Services Sep (A) C 53 | P 52.8

08:00     EUR        Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Sep (A) C 51.6 | P 51.4

08:00     EUR        Eurozone PMI Services Sep (A) C 51 | P 50.7

 

Ranges as of 6am London time including Sydney open

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               99.365 | 99.00

EUR/USD             1.3555 | 1.35205

EUR/JPY               134.56 | 133.98

AUD/USD            0.9438 | 0.9343

NZD/USD             0.8445 | 0.8341

USD/CAD             1.0315 | 1.0240

EUR/CHF              1.2335 | 1.2308

USD/CHF             0.91245 | 0.9080

GBP/USD             1.6033 | 1.5996

EUR/GBP             0.8475 | 0.8410

 

Stay lucky

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.