Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 98.608 | EURUSD 1.35145 | EURJPY 133.272 | AUDUSD 0.9511 | NZDUSD 0.82829 | USDCAD 1.04231 | EURCHF 1.22953 | USDCHF 0.90981 | GBPUSD 1.59685 | EURGBP 0.84628 |

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: The market opened quietly and in line with Friday’s close opening around the 1.3490 before slowly moving above the 1.3500 level. The market held the highs and we had comments from Fisher which caused a USD rally. Euro’s dropped quickly to the low 1.3440’s on the chatter before recovering to the 1.3480 levels and then steadily rising through the remainder of the Asian session to the starting levels. The move was likely to be a little exaggerated by the Japanese bank holiday. The London market opened and moved steadily higher to the 1.3510 but with very little news out of the ordinary the market struggled into the NYK session. Fresh selling started the day in NYK but with subdued factory orders the market struggled higher topping above the 1.3520 levels before slowly moving to the close trading 1.3510-20 before the end of the session. All eyes seem to be focusing on Thursday’s ECB meeting. Light profit taking was seen during the London session from last week’s shorts.
  • GBP: Cable for the Asian session tracked the Euro for the most part drifting in pre-Tokyo session slightly lower from the opening 1.5928 level. We moved higher into the Tokyo session to push against the 1.5940 area before the Fisher comments dropped the market lower in line with the Euro. Cable touched below the 1.5905 areas before stabilising and moving steadily higher in the same fashion as the Euro. The move into London saw the market trading just slightly north of the Asian highs and continued moving in a tight channel touching above the 1.5975 before entering into the NYK session. The US saw the USD sliding after poor factory orders although the market had already started to slip from the opening dropping back to the 1.5940 before reversing with light profit taking late into the session for the pair to finish just below the highs of the day.
  • JPY: With the Japanese out for culture day the market was fairly static for the USDJPY, opening around the 98.75 area and holding 98.70/85 levels for a good portion of the session before starting to drop off as we moved into the grey hours. The market slowly moved lower to the 98.60 into the early part of London. The market then held a tight range for the rest of the day dipping to a low of 98.55 into late NYK and failing to move above the 98.70 through the day.
  • AUD: The Oz began the day higher opening around the 0.9458 area and moving quickly through to 0.9490 in the first few hours as short term players bought into the no change on rates for tomorrow. Having moved to the 0.9490 areas the market struggled to make any headway with some medium sized offers holding the market and a lack of Japanese retails. The move into the grey hours saw early Europeans moving the market through the offers and the rest as they say is history as the market remained in a reasonably tight channel through the rest of the session eventually topping out above 0.9510 on a quiet session with some reasonable volumes going through as the market moved through the 0.9500 levels.

 
Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R 

AUD       Retail Sales M/M Sep A 0.80% | C 0.40% | P 0.40% | R 0.50%

AUD       House Price Index Q/Q Q3 A 1.90% | C 2.20% | P 2.40% | R 2.70%

EUR        Italian PMI Manufacturing Oct A 50.7 | C 51 | P 50.8

EUR        Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Oct (F) A 51.3 | C 51.3 | P 51.3

EUR        Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Nov A 9.3 | C 6.2 | P 6.1

GBP       PMI Construction Oct A 59.4 | C 58.7 | P 58.9

USD       Factory Orders Aug A -0.10% | C 0.20% | P -2.40%

USD       Factory Orders Sep A 1.70% | C 1.80% | P -0.10%

 

For today

USDJPY
Topside: 98.70-99.00 large offers  99.00-99.25 medium offers 99.25-99.40 light buy stops 99.40-99.65 light offers
Downside: 98.25-98.60 medium sell stops 97.80-98.10 medium bids 97.40-97.65 light bids

EURUSD
Topside: 1.3525-1.3540 light mix 1.3540-1.3560 light offers  1.3560-1.3580 medium offers 1.3580-1.3600 light buy stops
Downside: 1.3470-1.3490 light mix  1.3440-1.3460 light sell stops 1.3410-1.3430 light sell stops

EURJPY
Topside: 133.40-133.70 light offers  133.70-134.00 light offers
Downside: 132.80-133.10 light sell stops

AUDUSD
Topside: 0.9525-0.9550 light offers  0.9550-0.9580 medium buy stops
Downside: 0.9430-0.9460 light bids 0.9410-0.9425 light bids

 

AUD:

Australia’s Central Bank Holds Rates Steady at 2.5%

RBA Board Says Australian Dollar Is ‘Uncomfortably High’

JPY:

Japan Cabinet Agreed on Special Economic Zone Bill, Amari Says

Aso: Will Respect Panel Recommendation To Keep Next FY Main Budget at Y72T

CNY:

China services industry growth picks up in Oct -HSBC PMI

EUR:

Greece Resumes Talks With Troika to Bridge Fiscal-Gap Difference

GBP:

UK Retail Sales Show Sluggish Growth in October – BRC

  • EUR: Market held around the 1.3520 area and slowly dipped lower as we moved into the Tokyo market in some quiet trading, the market since then has held around the 1.3500 level. Some light selling from retail Japan but nothing special.
  • GBP: The market opened around the 1.5975 area and some system selling and buying during the pre-Tokyo saw the local market trading outside the normal dipping down below the 1.5950 area before the market recovered and moved slowly into the Tokyo session rising to push above the 1.5980/85 levels with the Ozzies pretty much out for the day with the Melbourne cup today the market struggled in the first part of the session with a lack of liquidity. The market attempted the topside on several occasions through the session but failed to really improve and started to slip lower once the RBA announcement was out of the way. The market remains only just short of the opening levels.
  • JPY: USDJPY opened around the 98.65 level and held into the Tokyo session before starting to drop off as retail Japan started to buy JPY against most currencies. We moved steadily over the first part of the session to move to 98.25 before the market held and bounced back to the 98.50 levels with some light buying from importers. Generally the market was fairly quiet as the market awaits the ECB on Thursday and NFP the day after.
  • AUD: The market moved higher from the opening once we moved into Tokyo trading from the 0.9505 levels to touch above the 0.9520 areas before the markets in Japan started to buy JPY forcing the AUD lower as AUDJPY selling started to kick in strongly from the 93.70 area. The Oz held briefly around the 0.9500 until the release of the RBA no change with the addendum of the currency remains on the highs side and a concern. This forced some of the longs out of the market as we dropped trading to below the 0.9465 area before the market stabilised with some reasonable volume. The market has moved off the low and currently holds around the 0.9475 area

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R | All GMT

JPY         Monetary Base Y/Y Oct A 45.80% | P 46.10%

GBP       BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Oct A 0.80% | C 1.10% | P 0.70%

AUD       RBA Rate Decision A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%

08:15     CHF        CPI M/M Oct C 0.10% | P 0.30%

08:15     CHF        CPI Y/Y Oct C -0.10% | P -0.10%

09:30     GBP       PMI Services Oct C 60 | P 60.3

10:00     EUR        Eurozone PPI M/M Sep C 0.20% | P 0.00%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone PPI Y/Y Sep C -0.80% | P -0.80%

15:00     USD       ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Oct C 54 | P 54.4

 

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               98.68 | 98.24

EUR/USD             1.3523 | 1.3496

EUR/JPY               133.34 | 132.705

AUD/USD            0.9521 | 0.9463

NZD/USD             0.8300 | 0.8260

USD/CAD             1.0442 | 1.0418

EUR/CHF              1.23005 | 1.22935

USD/CHF             0.9109 | 0.90955

GBP/USD             1.5983 | 1.5963

EUR/GBP             0.84635 | 0.84495
Good Luck

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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