Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 102.307 | EURUSD 1.37332 | EURJPY 140.506 | AUDUSD 0.90021 | NZDUSD 0.83049 | USDCAD 1.10787 | EURCHF 1.22038 | USDCHF 0.88861 | GBPUSD 1.66798 | EURGBP 0.82336 |

 

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               102.41 | 101.86

EUR/USD             1.37575 | 1.37285

EUR/JPY               140.60 | 140.05

AUD/USD            0.9012 | 0.8937

NZD/USD             0.8282 | 0.8242

USD/CAD             1.1093 | 1.1068

EUR/CHF              1.2207 | 1.2192

USD/CHF             0.8890 | 0.8868

GBP/USD             1.6688 | 1.6665

EUR/GBP             0.8249 | 0.82335

 

For today

  • EUR: The Euro began the day quietly ranging around the 1.3735 level and dipping to just below 1.3730 however, we started to see retail buying entering the market and a push through the 1.3740 saw the market touching off some small stops from pre Asia sellers. The market struggled higher helped by a declining AUD and some EURAUD buying after the China numbers the market holds for the moment just off its highs around the 1.3750 levels. Topside is empty really until the 1.3780 areas where the offers have interest with some light stops mixed in for good measure with better stops beginning to build above 1.3800. The downside has stops building below the 1.3700 levels with light bids then appearing from the 1.3680 levels running down to the 1.3630 area.
  • GBP: The market was pinned in a 20 point range for the day so far with the market initially finding sellers of EURGBP entering the market and the Cable rising to above the 1.6686 levels before the CNY number set the market adrift dropping to the lows around 1.6665, Since then we have recovered to the opening levels and the cross EURGBP has gained as Euro strengthened. 1.6650-30 remains support for the moment with a few more bids into the 1.6600 however, below exposes the 1.6250-1.6550 range again and it looks weak for the moment and is likely to take the lead from the Euro.  Topside has light offers running from above the 1.6700 level to 1.6800 with breakout stops miles from anywhere for the day.
  • JPY: A poor trade balance number you would have expected a weak Yen however, the Nikkei was under pressure from the opening and so the JPY strengthened with the market opening around the 102.30 level and declining over the first couple of hours in Tokyo to below the 101.90 levels for the second time in 24hrs, this time however, having reached the lows we have struggled to move away from the area and look to be pushing through the support slowly. Bids in the current area are beginning to run out and stops take over from there until the 101.40-101.70 level with better bids appearing below the 101.20 levels. Topside has stops above the 102.40 levels running for 20 pips before we start to see a series of offers building in size to the 103.00 level and then light stops.
  • AUD: AUD opened holding the 90 cent level and looked to be comfortable, rising to just above the 0.9010 level when the CNY figure hit the wires, the result was Oz dropping to the 0.8950 area and into some reasonable support dipping to just below the 0.8940 level before again holding just above 0.8950. The topside is now loaded with offers around the 0.9070-0.9100 levels and light mix above there, the downside still has bids from here into the 0.8900 level and then some patchy orders before bids start appearing around the 0.8830 area building in size the further we go below 0.8800.

Overnight News

CNY:

China Feb HSBC flash PMI hits 7-month low of 48.3

JPY:

Japan logs record trade deficit in January MOF

BOJ’s Morimoto: Japan can exceed potential growth rate after tax hike

BOJ Morimoto: Need to Secure Market Confidence in Fiscal Policy

Japan manufacturing mood down, seen sliding further -Reuters Tankan

Japan Firms Warm To Wage Increases

JPY/IDR:

Japan may take Indonesia to WTO over mineral export ban-media

G20/AUD:

Hockey Says Now Is Time to Focus on Stimulating Global Growth

USD:

Williams Sees ‘Pretty Strong’ Evidence Inflation to Accelerate

Treasury Secretary Lew: Ukraine Should Seek IMF Support

GBP/CNY:

UK, China discuss setting up RMB clearing bank in London-Osborne

NZD:

NZ consumer confidence eases off 7-year high in Feb – survey
Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       PPI – Inputs Q/Q Q4 A -0.7% | C 0.90% | P 2.20%

NZD       PPI – Outputs Q/Q Q4 A -0.4%| C 1.40% | P 2.40%

JPY         Trade Balance (JPY) Jan A -1.82T | C -1.56T | P -1.15T | R -1.26T

CNY        HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI Feb A 48.3 | C 49.4 | P 49.5

07:00     CHF        Trade Balance (CHF) Jan C 1.47B | P 0.50B

07:00     EUR        German PPI M/M Jan C 0.20% | P 0.10%

07:00     EUR        German PPI Y/Y Jan C -0.80% | P -0.50%

08:00     EUR        French PMI Manufacturing Feb (P) C 49.8 | P 49.3

08:00     EUR        French PMI Services Feb (P) C 49.2 | P 48.9

08:30     EUR        German PMI Manufacturing Feb (A) C 56.5 | P 54.3

08:30     EUR        German PMI Services Feb (A) C53.5 | P 53.1

09:00     EUR        Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Feb (A) C 54.3 | P 54

09:00     EUR        Eurozone PMI Services Feb (A) C 51.9 | P 51.6

09:00     EUR        Eurozone PMI Composite Feb (A) C 53.2 | P 52.9

11:00     GBP       CBI Trends Total Orders Feb P -2

13:30     USD       CPI M/M Jan C 0.10% | P 0.30%

13:30     USD       CPI Y/Y Jan C 1.60% | P 1.50%

13:30     USD       CPI Core M/M Jan C 0.10% | P 0.10%

13:30     USD       CPI Core Y/Y Jan C 1.60% | P 1.70%

13:30     USD       Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 15) C 335K | P 339K

15:00     USD       Philly Fed Survey Feb C 10 | P 9.4

15:00     USD       Leading Indicators Jan C 0.40% | P 0.10%

15:00     EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Feb (A) C -11 | P -11.7

16:00     USD       Crude Oil Inventories P 3.267M

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: A reasonably tight day overall with the Euro trading back from the highs as the day moved on, opening around the 1.3760 are the market peaked above the 1.3770’s before slowly slipping back on cross Yen selling during Asia, there was little in it as the FOMC seemed to be the focus for the day, The market slipped further south as the day wore on with early Europeans happy to sell into the slowly declining market. London opened around the original opening levels and with no real numbers and what focus there was on this side was on the UK employment numbers, this also added to the slide and Euro’s traded as low as the 1.3740 area as we moved into the NYK session. Although the market again moved back towards the opening levels the FOMC while bland when compared to previous it was sufficient to move the USD’s a little and Euro’s was forced down to the support levels around the 1.3730 levels and a quiet close just above those levels.
  • GBP: Cable moved sideways during the Asian session basing off the 1.6680 levels and never quiet moving through the 1.6700 levels until we moved into early London. Buyers quickly took the market back above the 1.6700 levels pushing to above 1.6730 and holding just off the levels into the numbers. With numbers a little mixed with the December number lagging the Jan number however, that took the headlines and the market moved away from the highs quickly pushing to the previous base area and eventually through the level to touch below 1.6640. The move in Cable pushed the EURGBP back to above the 0.8260 but this was a little premature and as soon as the NYK market opened the EURGBP was sold back towards its lows around 0.8220/25 for a quiet finish and Cable almost unchanged on the day.
  • JPY: USDJPY was on the back foot from the opening and strong selling was seen in early Tokyo taking the pair from the highs above the 102.40 levels to 102.20. The market never recovered and went in to a slow decline with interest waning as time passed by on an FOMC day. Some light profit taking in Yen crosses occurred in early London and the market was chased further down into the 101.80’s before stabilising into the NYK session and a steady rise back towards the opening levels. The market saw some choppy periods during the NYK session but for the most part it held around the opening levels with a brief move to above the 102.45 levels as USD buying entered the market after the FOMC.
  • AUD: The Oz had a reasonably quiet day with the market seeing light AUDJPY selling taking the Oz initially lower into early Tokyo. The market moved to the 0.8990 levels from the opening 0.9030 before finding its legs and steadily rising through the course of the day ignoring for the most part the news in Europe and the US. Early Sydney bear responsibility  they set the pair back again selling as soon as they came to their desks for the market to finish around the 90 cent levels.

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       Conference Board Leading Index Dec A 0.80% | P 0.20%

JPY         All Industry Activity Index M/M Dec A -0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.30% | R 0.40%

GBP       Bank of England Minutes A 0–0—9 | C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9

GBP       Jobless Claims Change Jan A -27.6K | C -18.3K | P -24.0K | R -27.7K

GBP       Claimant Count Rate Jan A 3.60% | P 3.70%

GBP       ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Dec A 7.20% | C 7.10% | P 7.10%

CHF        ZEW (Expectations) Feb A 28.7 | C 40 | P 36.4

CAD       Wholesale Sales M/M Dec A -1.40% | C -0.50% | P 0.00%

USD       Housing Starts Jan A 0.88M | C 0.975M | P 0.999M

USD       Building Permits Jan A 0.94M | C 0.995M | P 0.986M

USD       PPI M/M Jan A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.40%

USD       PPI Y/Y Jan A 1.20% | C 1.20% | P 1.20%

USD       PPI Core M/M Jan A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%

USD       PPI Core Y/Y Jan A 1.30% | C 1.40% | P 1.40%

 

Good Luck

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.