Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close Wellington open

USDJPY 101.374 101.32-33 | EURUSD 1.3912 1.3890-1.3935 | EURJPY 141.025 140.73-141.20 | AUDUSD 0.90306 0.8997-0.9005 | NZDUSD 0.85352 0.8527-44 | USDCAD 1.10995 1.1095-1.1108 | EURCHF 1.21372 1.2125-45 | USDCHF 0.87233 0.8702-66 | GBPUSD 1.66484 1.6600-54 | EURGBP 0.83565 0.8348-80 |

 

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               101.57 | 101.23

EUR/USD             1.3925 | 1.38905

EUR/JPY               141.27 | 140.75

AUD/USD            0.9064 | 0.8990

NZD/USD             0.8549 | 0.8515

USD/CAD             1.1107 | 1.1089

EUR/CHF              1.2144 | 1.2130

USD/CHF             0.87365 | 0.872

GBP/USD             1.6650 | 1.6627

EUR/GBP             0.8369 | 0.83525

 

Overnight News

RUB/UAH:

West Warns Russia Not to Annex Crimea

Crimea Chooses to Join Russia in Referendum, Exit Poll Shows

RUB:

Russia’s parliament to pass laws needed for Crimea’s accession quickly-Ifax

USD/RUB:

Obama to Putin: U.S. ready to ‘impose additional costs’ for Ukraine

CNY/USD:

China, U.S. Presidents to Meet in Late-March, Xinhua Reports

CNY: China Needs Time to Decide Reserve Ratio Cut: Securities News

China’s Monetary Policy More Likely to Ease: Sec. Journal

China Growth Robust, Between 7.5%-7% in ’14, ’15, Moody’s Says

China’s Local Govt Debt Reform Advances Credit Positive: Moody’s

China Plans to Spend More Than $162 Billion on Shantytowns

JPY:

Japan does not recognise Crimea vote – govt spokesman

KRW/CNY:

Wider Yuan Trading Band Is ‘Good, Desirable’ Decision: BOK Kim

NZD:

N.Z. 1Q Consumer Confidence Climbs to Nine-Year High: Westpac

N.Z. Economists Raise March 2015 Growth Forecast to 3.6%: NZIER

N.Z. Services Industry Expands at Slowest Pace in Six Months

N.Z. Survey Shows 6.4% of Homes Sold to People Located Overseas

 

For today

  • EUR: Not much of a reaction in the Euro after the exit poll in the Crimea election and the market opened in line with Fridays close around the 1.3910 area. From there it was a quiet session with the market peaking in the mid-teens before drifting lower into the figure area over several hours. With offers spread over the next 60 pips to the 1.3960 level light stops then make an appearance with larger ones around the 1.3980-1.4000 levels with option protection likely to be in play. Downside sees weak stops through the 1.3850 level but generally light bids all the way back to the 1.3800 level. Heavier stops appear below there.
  • GBP: Cable opened around the 1.6645 levels which were pretty much the highs for the session with very little impact on the pair and seems to be mired for the moment; with no data as such it could be a long day for Cable traders. With light stops on moving through the 1.6580 levels from weak longs, the market has spent several days holding onto this 1.6600 level and with no data well. Topside is a similar story with weak stops above the 1.6740 area and offers from 1.6780 holding the market for the time being.
  • JPY: USDJPY did some work however, while the market moved up from the opening 101.30 to 101.50’s it struggled with fresh safe haven flows keeping the market pinned for the moment. Topside continues to see light offers for a good distance and not that much in the way of stops however, there are always a few behind the sentimental areas 101.80-102.00 and again around the 102.50 levels however, they are nothing special and have a mix of offers near too. Downside has bids in front of the 101.00 levels with decent size stops below 100.80 with the rest totally mixed until the 100.20 level where bids start to thicken.
  • AUD: The AUD opened lower around the 0.9005 levels as however, with some choppy market action over the next few hours we repeatedly banged against the 0.9030/35 area and eventually broke through the level triggering weak stops and running quickly to above the 0.9055 levels, having hit those levels though we seem to have run out of steam with light offers holding the market below 0.9060 for the time being. Offers run to the 0.9100 levels with light stops through the levels but nothing special, downside sees light bids to the 90 cent level before tripping into light stops through 0.8990 and then nothing special with a mixed bag to the 0.8930 levels.

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       NZD Westpac NZ consumer confidence 1Q A 121.7 | 120.1

GBP       Rightmove House Prices M/M Mar A 1.60% | P 3.30%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI M/M Feb (F) C 0.40% | P -1.10%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI Y/Y Feb (F) C 0.80% | P 0.80%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Feb (F) C 1.00% | P 1.00%

12:30     CAD       International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jan C 3.24B | P -4.28B

12:30     USD       Empire State Manufacturing Index Mar C 6.25 | P 4.48

13:00     USD       Net Long-term TIC Flows Jan C $30.0B | P -$45.9B

13:15     USD       Industrial Production Feb C 0.20% | P -0.30%

13:15     USD       Capacity Utilization Feb C 78.60% | P 78.50%

14:00     USD       NAHB Housing Market Index Mar C 50 | P 46

 

Weekend News

CNY:

China Doubles Yuan’s Trading Band Giving Markets Greater Role
RUB:

Ukraine Says Russian Forces Push Beyond Crimea on Referendum Eve
Russia Says Ukrainian Citizens Are Asking It for Protection
JPY:

Kuroda Sees ‘No Limit’ to Any Potential Policy Adjustment: Jiji
Kuroda Says Prices on Smooth Path Toward 2% Target: Asahi
Abe Aide Urges More BOJ Easing as Tax Threatens Recovery
USD:

Fischer Says Bailout of Financial Firm Should Never Happen Again
EUR:

European Union Outlook to Stable, Aaa Rating Affirmed by Moody’s
GBP/EUR:

Vodafone Reaches Agreement on Sale With Ono Funds: Expansion
KRW/JPY:

S. Korea’s Park ‘Glad’ of Abe’s Decision to Uphold War Apologies

 

Friday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       Business NZ Manufacturing Index Feb A 56.2 | P 56.2 | R 56.3

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Jan (F) A 3.80% | C 4.00% | P 4.00%

EUR        German CPI M/M Feb (F) A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%

EUR        German CPI Y/Y Feb (F) A 1.20% | C 1.20% | P 1.20%

CHF        Producer & Import Prices M/M Feb A -0.40% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%

CHF        Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Feb A -0.80% | C -0.40% | P -0.30%

EUR        Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q4 A 0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%

USD       PPI M/M Feb A -0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%

USD       PPI Y/Y Feb A 0.90% | C 1.20% | P 1.20%

USD       PPI Core M/M Feb A -0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%

USD       PPI Core Y/Y Feb A 1.10% | C 1.40% | P 1.30%

USD       U. of Michigan Confidence Mar (P) A 79.9 | C 81.6 | P 81.6

 

Stay lucky

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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