Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 102.391 | EURUSD 1.37781 | EURJPY 141.073 | AUDUSD 0.90403 | NZDUSD 0.85368 | USDCAD 1.1241 | EURCHF 1.21769 | USDCHF 0.88379 | GBPUSD 1.65032 | EURGBP 0.83486 |

 

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               102.45 | 102.31

EUR/USD             1.3788 | 1.3776

EUR/JPY               141.16 | 140.98

AUD/USD            0.9069 | 0.9032

NZD/USD             0.8544 | 0.8525

USD/CAD             1.1249 | 1.1236

EUR/CHF              1.2178 | 1.21685

USD/CHF             0.8838 | 0.8828

GBP/USD             1.6520 | 1.6494

EUR/GBP             0.8350 | 0.8346

 

For today

  • EUR: With a bank holiday in Japan the market has been very quiet with ranges limited to single figures in the Euro opening around the 1.3780 level and barely scraping to 1.3790, with light offers above the 1.3800 level it remains mixed until 1.3840 with some weak stops above and then very patchy to the 1.3900 level. Downside has supportive bids now to the 1.3760 levels with stops just below and then a succession of light bids down to 1.3700 area and very little else showing for the time being.
  • GBP: Cable had a little more movement to it in the Asian session moving from the opening 1.608 areas to touch above 1.6520 before dipping back to the opening levels. Offer to the 1.6540 levels with stops immediately behind the levels for a move back through the 1.6500 levels. Downside remains patchy with some light buying to the 1.6450 levels however through there opens up the 1.6200/1.6400 ranges and a new game plan.
  • JPY: Happy Vernal Equinox Day, or so they tell me. With the market in Tokyo out for the day the range has been contained between 102.45 and 102.30 on the downside with very little flow in the pair going through, for the moment the market holds slightly lower. With stops just above the 102.50 resistance level the market immediately runs into further offers from 102.80-103.00 with further offers likely above. Downside has a mixed bag to the 102.20 with light bids to 102.00 with very little on in the way of stops 101.50 shows stronger bids to appearing below.
  • AUD: With Tokyo out the market has remained quiet and only real money buying has pushed the market along, the move from the opening 0.9040 levels saw weak stops triggered through 0.9050 and the market moved to the mid 0.9060’s in light trading. For the moment light offers from here to the 91 cent level stops above with better offers appearing in the market. Downside has bids to the 0.8980 level through 90 cent with light stops for the moment below that level appearing but quickly taken over by light bids from then on.

Overnight News

CNY:

China regulator warns of risks in insurance asset management products

JPY/KRW/USD:

Abe, Park to Meet Obama as U.S. Seeks Thaw for Asia Allies

JPY:

Japanese Nationalism Is Not Increasing, Abe’s Brother Says

USD:

U.S. Credit Outlook Revised to Stable from Negative at Fitch

RUB:

Russia’s Outlook Revised to Negative by Fitch; Affirms at ’BBB’

EUR:

Greece Debt Ratings Affirmed at B- at S&P, Outlook Stable

GBP:

U.K. Poll Shows 46% of Consumers See BOE Rate Hike in Next Year

NZD:

N.Z. Consumer Confidence Falls For a Second Month in March: ANZ
Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       Conference Board Leading Index Jan A 0.20% | P 0.80%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jan C 18.4B | P 21.3B

09:30     GBP       Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Feb C 7.9B | P -6.4B

12:30     CAD       Retail Sales M/M Jan C 0.80% | P -1.80%

12:30     CAD       Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Jan C 0.90% | P -1.40%

12:30     CAD       CPI M/M Feb C 0.60% | P 0.30%

12:30     CAD       CPI Y/Y Feb C 0.90% | P 1.50%

12:30     CAD       BoC CPI Core M/M Feb C 0.50% | P 0.20%

12:30     CAD       BoC CPI Core Y/Y Feb C 1.10% | P 1.40%

15:00     EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar (A) C -12.3 | P -12.7

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: Having opened in Asia around the 1.3820 levels the market was reasonably quiet as Japan started to creep away for a long weekend, the Euro rose slowly in a tight range to the 1.3840 levels into the grey hours, while one would have expected a little bit of a follow through from the NYK sell off the retail market seemed more intent in flattening some of its shorts, the move into London saw the release of further indicative numbers that de-inflation is not going away no matter how much they talk about it however, only once we moved into the London official opening did the market tip and start to move lower, pushing through light bids and triggering some minor stops as it moved to below the 1.3760 pre NYK. NYK was quiet over all again the market seemed more intent on covering shorts held too far into the red and the market slowly rose over the course of several hours to 1.3790 before settling around the 1.3780 levels into the quiet close.
  • GBP: With Asia very quiet for the Cable the market stayed around the 1.6540 areas for most of the session and the market only started to move once we closed in on the London opening rising to 1.6560 levels before starting a steady slide lower, less deep than the Euro the market held broadly speaking on to the 1.6500 levels in quiet trading touching lows of 1.6490 areas.
  • JPY: USDJPY barely had a pulse with the market side by a long weekend and offers to the topside restricting the movement in what seems to have been the desired direction. Holding above the 102.20 level and pushing only briefly through the 102.50 levels on 3 occasions during the day disguises the fact that numbers for EURJPY and USDJPY were fairly decent, volume wise.
  • AUD: As with all the other majors the Oz held onto the 90 cent level, dipping in Asia early in the session before moving back to the opening levels. London saw some minor selling taking the market briefly through the 90 cent levels before rising steadily to just above the opening levels in a very quiet session. As with some of the other majors there was plenty of volume going through with what appears to be a balancing of positions before looking for further directional ideas. The Ukraine situation continues to rumble on in the background with further limited action from western countries however, with the UN now involved this could rumble for years to come.

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       Gross Domestic Product Q/Q Q4 A 0.90% | C 0.90% | P 1.40% | R 1.20%

CHF        Trade Balance (CHF) Feb A 2.62B | C 2.47B | P 2.59B | R 2.55B

EUR        German PPI M/M Feb A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P -0.10%

EUR        German PPI Y/Y Feb A -0.90% | C -0.90% | P -1.10%

CHF        SNB Rate Decision A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%

GBP       CBI Trends Total Orders Mar A 6 | C 5 | P 3

USD       Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 15) A 320K | C 325K | P 315K

USD       Philly Fed Survey Mar A 9 | C 4 | P -6.3

USD       Existing Home Sales Feb  A 4.60M | C 4.62M | P 4.62M

USD       Leading Indicators Feb A 0.50% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%

 

Good Luck,

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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