Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close Wellington open

USDJPY 102.265 102.08-35 | EURUSD 1.37935 1.3788-98 | EURJPY 141.069 140.76-141.22 | AUDUSD 0.9084 0.9085-98 | NZDUSD 0.8536 0.8531-61 | USDCAD 1.12243 1.1212-28 | EURCHF 1.21768 1.2168-80 | USDCHF 0.88278 0.8803-55 | GBPUSD 1.64892 1.6484-1.6509 | EURGBP 0.83662 0.8365-72 |

 

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               102.58 | 102.08

EUR/USD             1.38075 | 1.37865

EUR/JPY               141.50 | 140.88

AUD/USD            0.9114 | 0.9048

NZD/USD             0.8561 | 0.8517

USD/CAD             1.1240 | 1.1205

EUR/CHF              1.2189 | 1.21685

USD/CHF             0.8836 | 0.8816

GBP/USD             1.6497 | 1.6460

EUR/GBP             0.8385 | 0.8363

 

Overnight News

EUR:

Hollande allies trail in French local vote, far-right gains: polls

Liikanen says ECB still has room to cut rates

RUB/UAH:

Ukraine fears Russia ready to attack NATO’s top commander warned

CNY:

China manufacturing index hits eight month low

CBanker says defaults may be good for China markets.

 

For today

  • EUR: Euros opened slightly higher around the 1.3805 area before moving back into the 1.3790’s and dipping below on several occasions in light trading. With very little news in the market the Euro remains moribund or close to it. Light offers now resting on the topside to the 1.3830 levels and a mixture thereafter, 1.3900 see’s stronger offers with stops building above 1.3920. Downside showing light bids down to the 1.3760 level and weak stops below as with the topside better bids seen around the 1.3700 levels but still a little sketchy.
  • GBP: Cable opened lower with around the 1.6480 levels before moving back to the 1.6490 levels into the Tokyo opening and filling the gap on the charts. For the most part the pair has been languishing between the 1.6480/90 levels just off the closing levels from Friday with no real information to dictate a direction, technically there is very little to stop the market dipping into the previous 1.6200-1.6450 range however, there are still some bids to clear to the 1.6450 levels before hitting some stops. Given the US selling on Friday we could be seeing a stronger USD coming in the near future even if the talk of rate rises are some 9months away, topside has offers around the sentimental levels so 1.6550 and 1.6600 levels with no real stops showing at the moment.
  • JPY: USDJPY opened little changed from Friday and moved off the 102.15 levels in pre Tokyo to walk into a Tokyo session who had a day’s catch up to go through moving to the 102.30 level and light offers and then driving to above the 102.55 areas, stronger offers stopped the market from rising at this point and from there the market has gradually drifted off in a quiet market. Offers remain moving from just above the highs to around the 103.00, with an exaggerated month end to come with repatriation topside is likely to be a limited option with the offers building in size to the 103.00 area and just above, with little talk of stops the market continues into the next level around 103.30/50. Downside has light stops appearing now through the 102.00 level having tried the downside a few times on Friday, with bids only showing in a sub 101.50 market again stops seem few and far between after this and stronger bids the lower you go.
  • AUD: The Oz opened higher with AUDJPY carry trade doing some early work after the Japanese long weekend, opening above the 91 cent level around 0.9110 the market started to fall back in early trading as technical types filled the gap on the charts to 0.9090 levels. The market continued to slip into the Tokyo session and eventually rested around the 0.9080 level as the CNY Flash manufacturing number hit worse than expected and the market in the Oz gapped lower to 0.9060 touching below the 0.9050 levels before again starting to slowly rise to fill the new gap on the charts. The market eventually moved back to the 0.9090 levels as we moved into the grey hours and while volumes have been brisk it has been a little patchy overall. A light mixed bag now appears on the topside with offers becoming stronger above the 0.9140 levels with stops dominating above the 0.9170 with suspected light barriers around 92 cent. Downside is light all the way down with the strongest bids now appearing below the 0.9040 levels and into 0.8980, before giving away to stops.

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

CNY        HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI Mar A 48.1 | C 48.7 | P 48.5

08:00     EUR        French PMI Manufacturing Mar (P) C 49.6 | P 49.7

08:00     EUR        French PMI Services Mar (P) C 47.5 | P 47.2

08:30     EUR        German PMI Manufacturing Mar (A) C 54.5 | P 54.8

08:30     EUR        German PMI Services Mar (A) C 55.5 | P 55.9

09:00     EUR        Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Mar (A) C 53.1 | P 53.2

09:00     EUR        Eurozone PMI Services Mar (A) C 53 | P 52.6

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: A tight range for the day as the market tried to find some idea for the next movements for the Euro, opening around the 1.3780 area the market gradually moved to the 1.3790 level over the course of the Asian session, with Japan out for a bank holiday the market struggled for activity. The grey hours saw some early selling to test down to just beyond the 1.3770 level before the official opening saw buying appear to reverse the move, an increase in the Eurozone current account helped to move the market a little higher however, the market struggled into NYK unable to really clear the 1.3800 with any conviction. With no data out of the US the market was left to the vagaries of light movement causing a little chop through the NYK session with a quick move above the 1.3810 level before dropping back to hold around the 1.3795 levels into the close.
  • GBP: Light EURGBP selling helped the GBP move higher during Asia however, even so the market was limited in its price action, having opened around the 1.6505 area the market struggled to above 1.6520 into the early part of the Asian session before drifting back a little and holding around the 1.6515 levels into the grey hours. Early selling saw a strong push below the 1.6500 level touching below the 1.6480 levels before a better PSBR number reversed the losses. From the 1.6515 areas after the reversal the market saw a little chop before settling back to below the 1.6490 area into a quiet NYK session. Longer term funds were seen in both the Euro and GBP as perceptions shift to rising interest rates in the US into 2015.
  • JPY: USDJPY without the Japanese market was dead in the water and we saw very little flow moving through the market during Asia in particular. Moving from the 102.40 area the market generally drifted lower however, once the market settled back from the open the bottom saw above the 102.30 levels. Just prior to the London opening the market saw some solid EURJPY selling entering the market and with no real support from the Japanese market it dropped quickly to the 102.05 levels before recovering a little a couple of hours later in a minor short squeeze. Movement in NYK was generally contained within the 102.20-40 range and only late in the session in NYK did the market start to drift lower before finishing around the 102.25 levels.
  • AUD: The Oz opened around the 0.9045 area and spent the day gradually moving higher in a very quiet session with very little to write home about and with no major surprises gradually moving into the NYK session to touch above the 91cent briefly before holding the 0.9085 levels into the close.

Friday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       Conference Board Leading Index Jan A 0.20% | P 0.80%

EUR        Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jan A 25.3B | C 18.4B | P 21.3B | R 20.0B

GBP       Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Feb A 7.5B | C 7.9B | P -6.4B

CAD       Retail Sales M/M Jan A 1.30% | C 0.80% | P -1.80% | R -1.90%

CAD       Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Jan A 1.00% | C 0.90% | P -1.40% | R -1.50%

CAD       CPI M/M Feb A 0.80% | C 0.60% | P 0.30%

CAD       CPI Y/Y Feb A 1.10% | C 0.90% | P 1.50%

CAD       BoC CPI Core M/M Feb A 0.70% | C 0.50% | P 0.20%

CAD       BoC CPI Core Y/Y Feb A 1.20% | C 1.10% | P 1.40%

EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar (A) A -9 | C -12.3 | P -12.7

 

Stay lucky

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.