Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 103.934 | EURUSD 1.37202 | EURJPY 142.598 | AUDUSD 0.92325 | NZDUSD 0.85392 | USDCAD 1.10369 | EURCHF 1.22241 | USDCHF 0.89098 | GBPUSD 1.65978 | EURGBP 0.82661 |

 

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               103.955 | 103.85

EUR/USD             1.3724 | 1.3709

EUR/JPY               142.61 | 142.45

AUD/USD            0.9243 | 0.9225

NZD/USD             0.8562 | 0.8538

USD/CAD             1.1043 | 1.1025

EUR/CHF              1.2236 | 1.2222

USD/CHF             0.8923 | 0.89085

GBP/USD             1.6600 | 1.6584

EUR/GBP             0.8271 | 0.8265

 

For today

  • EUR: Another quiet session with a run to the NFP later today, the market opened just below the 1.3720 levels and barely managed a move above the level before drifting slowly on Euro weakness to the 1.3710 levels, no real size showing and volumes much below the normal day. Offers now seen from the 1.3730-50 area only light with better offers seen by stronger leveraged types from 1.3780-1.3800 levels. A breakthrough of the 1.3820 area will trigger weak stops before running into more offers. Downside has light stops through the 1.3700 level with bids for the moment protecting the level, and then the market is very mixed with light bids and stops in patches to the 1.3650 level and bids beginning to take prominence down to 1.3620.
  • GBP: Cable was unable to push back through the 1.6600 levels but held the 1.6590’s for the early part of the session, Euro weakness was the drag on the pair and the market saw Cable give ground dipping into the mid 1.6580’s towards the later part of Asia however, the market is very quiet and you can infer nothing from today’s range or play. Downside has bids from the 1.6570 level dropping back to the 1.6550 level a mixture of stop types through 1.6550 run straight to the 1.6520 areas and better bids. Topside has light offers around the 1.6600 levels and better offers higher towards the 1.6660 levels the offers are as you’d expect thin in the 1.6620/60 levels but thicken the closer you get to 1.6700 and above.
  • JPY: USDJPY has stayed around the 103.90 level for the whole Asian session dipping in early trading to the 103.85 area before reaching to the 103.95 level as the market wraps up for the weekend and in front of the NFP. Offers dominate the topside near term with 104.00-30 being the better offers with some weak stops behind and then another batch around the 104.50 area, these offers being lighter. The 105.00 handle seems to be lightly defended and little in the way of top pickers showing and only light stops through the level suspected. Light bids dominate the market down to the 103.50 levels with sell stops then moving in to the 103.20 areas and better bids.
  • AUD: As with the rest of the market no data and NFP to come mean a dull market till that point. The Oz opened around the 0.9230 areas and remained on the level into Tokyo before moving a little higher on fresh buying from leveraged types to take the market above 0.9240 before starting to slowly drift into the mix range. Light stops above the highs with a mixture then taking over. Better offers make an appearance above the 93 cent level and while patchy go back into the 0.9350 levels. Downside has light bids from 0.9200-0.9180 areas however suspect weak stops below that area and then really nothing showing of worth from then on.

Overnight News

JPY:

Japan Aso: BOJ’s aggressive stimulus should be appreciated

Japan to Issue Special Visas for Construction Workers From FY15

JPY/USD:

Amari, Froman May Meet Next Week in Tokyo on TPP, Yomiuri Says

USD:

Fed’s Fisher Says QE at Current Tapering Pace Is Set to End Oct.

TRY:

Turkey Affirmed at BBB- at Fitch, Outlook Stable

EUR:

Lagarde Says Renzi’s Economic Program ’Ambitious’: Corriere

 

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

10:00     EUR        German Factory Orders M/M Feb C 0.30% | P 1.20%

12:30     CAD       Net Change in Employment Mar  C 25.3K | P -7.0K

12:30     CAD       Unemployment Rate Mar C 7.00% | P 7.00%

12:30     USD       Change in Non-farm Payrolls Mar C 190K | P 175K

12:30     USD       Unemployment Rate Mar C 6.60% | P 6.70%

14:00     CAD       Ivey PMI Mar C 58.3 | P 57.2

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: The market was reasonably quiet as you would expect in the run towards the ECB rate decision, opening around the 1.3765 areas the market was contained in Asia to the 1.3758/72 region for the most part, dipping from the highs in early Tokyo to hold the 1.3760 area into the grey hours. London was little different moving up slightly but keeping to a similar range into NYK, the decision itself was almost a forgone conclusion however, the tone was little changed and they again rolled out the ability for further easing methods (yeh right). The market movement was higher through 1.3800 until the communique on which the Euro dropped quickly, ignoring the US data releases which were both worse than expected but overshadowed, the market eventually touched below 1.3700 before limping for several hours into a close around the 1.3720 areas.
  • GBP: With very little on the cards the market tagged along with the Euro for the most part, rising in Asia with some reasonable GBPJPY buying before giving up the gains from gains to above 1.6660 and back to the opening levels around the mid 1.6620’s with the market unhealthily devoid of anything meaningful, the move into the grey hours again showed how open the 40 pip range was with a move into London to the same high before dipping back on a poor services PMI, from there the Cable slipped further back as early London buyers moved into the EURGBP taking back shorts to push the cross above the 0.8300 level and Cable down through 1.6600. Movement around the ECB announcement was muted in Cable already towards its lows however, EURGBP reversed its early gains having briefly touched 0.8315 and then dropping quickly back to its lows around the 0.8265 area. The run to the close was a mute affair rising slightly towards the 1.6600 from the lows towards 1.6570.
  • JPY: The USDJPY gradually ground its way higher through the relevant offers to push to 104.05 areas before slowly and drifting to the 103.95 areas into the grey hours, there the market saw weak stops triggered to take the pair back to the opening levels and into the lows just below 103.85. London was fairly dormant and the pair limped along around the 103.95 for a great portion and only after the US numbers and Draghi had said his peace did we see the USDJPY push to the 104.10 levels. I suspect many things however, having pushed through 104.10 the market dropped quickly back after a second tick at the level falling to the low of the day just above the 103.80 level before limping into the close. If there was a 104.10 strike then the trigger of the top would explain the buyer beating the defence and then covering his longs quickly in a supportive market, just a guess.
  • AUD: With the market opening around the 0.9250 levels it moved quietly into the Tokyo session before reacting to a less than expected CNY PMI, dropping from those opening areas to below the 0.9215 before running into sufficient demand to hold the market. While the market was slightly choppy it held its ground with the move into the grey hours seeing a low just above the 0.9205 level and starting a slow recovery into the 0.9240 levels before the NYK opening. Movements in Euro dominated the market somewhat and the AUD drifted with a broad USD rise as the majors tagged along for the most part with Euro weakness however, once the London session closed the buyers picked up the market and we closed around the 0.9230 levels on what was a reasonably tight day considering.

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       Retail Sales M/M Feb A 0.20% | C 0.40% | P 1.20%

AUD       Trade Balance (AUD) Feb A 1.20B | C 0.82B | P 1.43B | R 1.39B

CNY        Non-manufacturing PMI Mar A 54.5 | P 55

EUR        Italian Services PMI Mar A 49.5 | C 51.9 | P 52.9

EUR        Eurozone Services PMI Mar (F) A 52.2 | C 52.4 | P 52.4

GBP       Services PMI Mar A 57.6 | C 58.1 | P 58.2

EUR        Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Feb A 0.10% | C -0.60% | P 1.60% | R 1.00%

USD       Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Mar A -30.20% | P -24.40%

EUR        ECB Rate Decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%

USD       Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 28) A 326K | C 319K | P 311K | R 310K

USD       Trade Balance Feb A -$42.3B | C -$38.5B | P -$39.1B | R -39.3B

CAD       Trade Balance (CAD) Feb A 0.3B | C 0.2B | P -0.18B | R -0.3B

USD       ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Mar  A 53.1 | C 53.5 | P 51.6

 

Good Luck,

Andy

 

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.