Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 102.14 | EURUSD 1.38752 | EURJPY 141.723 | AUDUSD 0.92746 | NZDUSD 0.86833 | USDCAD 1.09564 | EURCHF 1.2179 | USDCHF 0.87776 | GBPUSD 1.6868 | EURGBP 0.82259 |

 

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               102.19 | 101.975

EUR/USD             1.3885 | 1.38725

EUR/JPY               141.77 | 141.59

AUD/USD            0.9318 | 0.9272

NZD/USD             0.8715 | 0.8677

USD/CAD             1.0961 | 1.0949

EUR/CHF              1.21805 | 1.2177

USD/CHF             0.8780 | 0.87715

GBP/USD             1.6894 | 1.6866

EUR/GBP             0.8226 | 0.8219

 

For today

  • EUR: With very little to go on the market has slowly edged higher to the 1.3885 levels again having held the opening 1.3875 levels. Tokyo is still out so the volumes have been a little thin. Topside still has offers around the 1.3900 levels however, the market has not backed away significantly and always comes back to this level, with weak stops building above 1.3910 and break out players above 1.3920. Downside has a mixture all the way to the 1.3810 areas with no real stops show until below the 1.3780 levels thereafter a mixture.
  • GBP: Cable has seen a return to the topside as the Pfizer/Zeneca story again makes front page with calls for the Government to stay neutral, leading the reader to believe there is a higher chance of this going through. The market started to steadily rise as the early FT hit the wires and has remained steadily buoyant moving to the 1.6895 levels. Offers above the 1.6920 levels, with stops beginning to appear above that level, offers after that all the way to 1.7000. Downside sees buyers to the 1.6800 levels and more of a mixture to 1.6750.
  • JPY: USDJPY held in the early part of the session around the opening 102.15 levels before slowly declining as the session moved on and local interest disappeared, the market dropped quietly down to the 102.00 levels as the AUD made its move higher. Light bids to the 101.80 levels with a mixture below on a break; better bids appear around the 101.30 levels. Topside now sees light offers around the 102.30 levels then the market is open to the 103.00 level before further stronger offers appear.
  • AUD: The AUD traded lightly higher from the opening 0.9280 levels and I mean lightly, touching a couple of times above the 0.9290 levels before the release from the RBA with no change at all with the after speech about the same as previous months. Offers remain on the topside however; they are a little patchy at times and mixed until closer to the 94 cent levels where offers dominate. Downside sees light bids now from 0.9270 down to 0.9250 with light stops below.

Overnight News

AUD:

RBA repeats it sees likely period of interest rate stability

RBA says China remains in line with policy makers objectives

RBA says exchange rate high by historical standards

RBA commodity prices important to Australia softened of late

RBA some time before unemployment falls consistently

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       Trade Balance (AUD) Mar A 0.73B | C 1.10B | P 1.20B

AUD       RBA Rate Decision A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%

08:00     EUR        Eurozone Services PMI Apr (F) C 53.1 | P 53.1

08:30     GBP       Services PMI Apr C 57.9 | P 57.6

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Mar C -0.20% | P 0.40%

12:30     CAD       Trade Balance (CAD) Mar C 0.4B | P 0.29B

12:30     USD       Trade Balance Mar C -40.1B | P -$42.3B

14:00     CAD       Ivey PMI Apr C 54.5 | P 55.2

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: With Tokyo and Japan closed the market was stuck in a very quiet 20 pip range for the day dipping to 1.3865 levels as safe haven flows into the JPY forcing cross JPY low across the board, Euro’s rose back to the 1.3875 opening levels and held into the non-existent London session. The market rose to the day’s highs into the NYK opening topping just above the 1.3885 levels before drifting back to the opening levels into the close.
  • GBP: The Cable opened a little higher than Friday’s close before slipping back in line with everything else as tensions in the Ukraine increase triggering some minor safe haven flows during the closed Tokyo session. Cable never recaptured those early highs and slipped into a closed London market continuing the same drift lower moving gradually to the lows around the 1.6855 levels before finding some support, NYK took the market back to the 1.6870 areas and the market drifted sideways into the close.
  • JPY: Strong Yen buying into the Tokyo period saw the USDJPY dip from the 102.20 area down to just below 101.90 before finding sufficient support to hold the market in a limited action. As we moved into the London period the market was again back above the 102.00 areas and although the numbers in Europe were unimpressive the market still decided that EURJPY was not the pair to hold and the market again saw EURJPY selling to take USDJPY back to the lows. The move into the NYK session saw the USDJPY rise back to the 102.10 levels and held throughout the session into the close.
  • AUD: While the Oz was a little more active through the Asian session the end result was the same a market closing just slightly off from the opening, the market opened above the 0.9280 level on a high opening from Friday’s close holding the area into the Tokyo session until the AUD numbers with a poor buildings approval before dropping to the lows close to 0.9255, a slightly worse PMI number from China helped to put it there however the market started to rally again from that point and pushed back above the 0.9280 levels. London stepped in and the market moved slowly lower on little more than fresh air and so it continued with the dips becoming shallower as the market moved into the NYK session rising back to just short of the opening levels.

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       TD Securities Inflation M/M Apr A 0.40% | P 0.20%

AUD       Building Approvals M/M Mar A -3.50% | C 2.00% | P -5.00%

CNY        HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Apr (F) A 48.1 | C 48.4 | P 48.3

EUR        Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence May A 12.8 | C 14.2 | P 14.1

EUR        Eurozone PPI M/M Mar A -0.20% | C -0.20% | P -0.20%

EUR        Eurozone PPI Y/Y Mar A -1.60% | C -1.70% | P -1.70%

USD       ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Apr A 55.2 | C 54.3 | P 53.1

 

Good Luck,

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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