Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 102.258 | EURUSD 1.37028 | EURJPY 140.126 | AUDUSD 0.93582 | NZDUSD 0.8635 | USDCAD 1.09055 | EURCHF 1.21977 | USDCHF 0.89018 | GBPUSD 1.68262 | EURGBP 0.81439 |
Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 102.28 | 102.13
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3721 | 1.3698
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 140.21 | 139.93
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9399 | 0.9355
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8662 | 0.8615
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0912 | 1.0903
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2200 | 1.2191
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8902 | 0.8887
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6858 | 1.6825
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8145 | 0.81375
For today
- EUR: The market steadily rose over the session from an opening just above the 1.3700 levels and only briefly dipping to below the 1.3700 levels. Once the dip was over with the market moved steadily higher to push above the 1.3720 levels as USDJPY dropped, this ran into EURJPY bids in front of the 140.00 levels and the resultant highs in the Euro. Downside bids start around the 1.3690 levels and down to the 1.3665/70 levels, a break through the level will see stops triggered and the mixed interest to the 1.3630 level where bids thicken. Topside offers now has light offers above the 1.3750 levels and has light offers all the way up only thickening around the 1.3980/1.4000 levels.
- GBP: Cable has been steadily bid through the session with the EURGBP remaining on the back foot the market was helped by the squeeze in Euro’s from the Cross JPY buying. Moving from the 1.6825 levels the market rose quietly in early Tokyo before rising a little more rapidly into the late session to above the 1.6855 levels in what appears to be a better range than we’ve seem for many a month. Light offers appear around the 1.6890 levels and into the 1.6900 levels before light stops appear and dominate the level. From that point the offers start to thicken again with the 1.7000 remaining the focus to the topside. Downside sees a breach of the H+S but as mentioned below I don’t think fundamentally you want to be on the wrong side of M+A news. The market to the downside still remains supported whichever way you want to look at it and while the movement in Euro continues to drag the Cable lower the EURGBP cross moves in the same direction. Bids are likely through the 1.6800 levels and only through 1.6780 do we start to see light stops making an appearance before bids again take over.
- JPY: The USDJPY moved steadily lower through the session dropping from the 102.28 levels into fixing supply and to the 102.15 levels before finding support in EURJPY around the 140.00 levels, the market remains a little jittery as a move through the 140.00 would probably cause a squeeze on retail Japan longs and margins causing the JPY to strengthen. Light bids 102.05/00 however, the main bids remain around the 140.00 levels in EURJPY, stops in USDJPY don’t appear until below the 101.90 levels and again this has to be balanced with the EURJPY. Topside offers above the 102.40 but only light with very little showing stop wise until above the 103.00 levels, offers dominate to that level.
- AUD: The Oz rose slowly moving from the 0.9360 area to push through the 94 cent level with very little difficulty, triggering weak stops above the 0.9380 levels the market was happy with the Australian budget with a return to a balanced budget by 2017/18 with the current budget deficit of 3.1% of GDP AUD49.9B reduced in 2014/15 to AUD 29.8B or 1.8% of GDP. This set the market moving strongly and resistance was removed allowing the market higher. Offers are light until the 0.9420 areas where stronger offers are likely, stops are few and far between and it could be all mute if the EURJPY breaks and margin calls send the AUDJPY carry trade lower. Downside now sees support around the 0.9320 levels to the 93 cent levels with congestion showing below that level and further bids from 0.9280, only light stops appear.
Overnight News
NZD:
Wheeler Says NZ Dollar Carry Trade Quite Strong, May Strengthen
JPY:
Japan Corporate Goods Prices Rise Most Since 1980 After Tax Rise
GPIF Active Japan Stock Investments May Fall on Revamp: Minutes
JPY/CNY:
Japan’s Tokio Marine, Mizuho to Buy into Citic Nikkei
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Q/Q Q1 A 0.70% | C 0.90% | P 1.20% | R 1.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI Y/Y Apr A 4.10% | C 4.00% | P 1.70%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Apr (F) C -0.20% | P -0.20%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Apr (F) C 1.30% | P 1.30%
06:00Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Apr (P) P 41.80%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Mar C 6.80% | P 6.90%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Apr C 3.30% | P 3.40%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Apr C -30.0K | P -30.4K
09:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ZEW (Expectations) May P 7
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Mar C -0.30% | P 0.20%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Inflation Report
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Apr C 0.20% | P 0.50%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Apr C 1.70% | P 1.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Apr C 0.20% | P 0.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Apr C 1.40% | P 1.40%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -1.8M
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Asia was very quiet with little movement in the Euro moving around the opening 1.3760 levels with movement 5 pips either side, the move into the grey hour saw the market back on its highs above 1.3765 but until London actually opened the market remained stuck below the 1.3770 levels and unable to push through the offers. London was another story with comments from various sources and a poor set of ZEW numbers, although these numbers are based on analysts within the financial community and not inside the industries it is still worth noting as they do have some bearing on the actual numbers more closely followed, adding to increasing belief in Draghi, something I’m not going to hold my breath for. The market dropped back as further comments were made, primarily BUBA making comments that it has no problems with negative rates however, the rest of Europe may do but this does kind of give the nod for it to happen. After the comments the market dropped back to 1.3740 and then on a secondary move pushed to the 1.3700 levels and into the NYK session, the selling continued to some extent having seen US numbers which apart from the inventory number were poor at best. The market did rally a little to 1.3730 areas before the selling reasserted itself and the market pushed down below the 1.3700 for the first time bouncing off the 1.3690 levels and back above 1.3700 in quiet afternoon trading.
- GBP: Cable remains supported to some extent but dragged lower by the movement in the Euro. Opening around the 1.6868 levels the market in Asia but lightly and the market moved to above the 1.6880 levels and held there for a good part of the session, before the market drifted lower into the grey hours, the movement in the Euro drove the market lower with EURGBP selling unable to keep pace with the movement in the Euro. Cable dipped through the 1.6830 levels before holding for a good portion of the early NYK session only to dip further at the NYK option cut to touch below the 1.6820 levels, while I’ll mention the H+S pattern showing on the charts one suspects that anyone running with it may find themselves in problems if the Pharma deal were to go through so the market held steady from that point into the close rising very little.
- JPY: USDJPY was quiet but reasonably bid over the course of the Asian session moving from the opening 102.15 area to above the 102.35 in a steady rise into the grey hours, the market dipped into the London session back to mid-range before dipping for the first time as EURJPY selling kicked in. The release of the US numbers didn’t help the market and USDJPY dropped to below the 102.10 levels with a little bit of a gap from the release , the market haven bottomed started a second rally as lengthy as the first over the remaining period of the day to finish the session around the 102.25 levels.
- AUD: The Oz was very quiet in the Asian session, opening around the 0.9360 levels and slowly dipping to the 0.9355 levels into the grey hours. Early sellers in Europe took the market into the London session to 0.9335 before finding some reasonable support to start a long reversal for back part of the London market. The release of poor numbers in the US helped the Oz to push up to the 0.9380 levels however, futures selling into the US session saw the market pushing back towards the 0.9350 levels before stabilising again and finishing the day no better than when it started.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Apr A 4.20% | C 1.60% | P -1.70%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Apr A 3.40% | C 3.40% | P 3.50% | R 3.60%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans Mar A -0.90% | C 1.00% | P 2.30%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Q/Q Q1 A -1.20% | C 3.00% | P 3.40% | R 3.50%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production YTD Y/Y Apr A 8.70% | C 8.70% | P 8.70%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Apr A 11.90% | C 12.10% | P 12.20%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Apr A 8.70% | C 8.90% | P 8.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) May A 33.1 | C 41.3 | P 43.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) May A 62.1 | C 60.5 | P 59.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) May A 55.2 | C 63.5 | P 61.2
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Apr A 0.10% | C 0.40% | P 1.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Apr A 0.00% | C 0.60% | P 0.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Apr A -0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Mar A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
Good Luck,
Andy