Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 117.715 | EURUSD 1.24673 | EURJPY 146.756 | AUDUSD 0.85456 | NZDUSD 0.78698 | USDCAD 1.13324 | EURCHF 1.20196 | USDCHF 0.9641 | GBPUSD 1.57359 | EURGBP 0.79227 |

 

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               118.34 | 117.74

EUR/USD             1.2468 | 1.2445

EUR/JPY               147.30 | 146.85

AUD/USD            0.8545 | 0.8486

NZD/USD             0.7868 | 0.7829

USD/CAD             1.1355 | 1.1325

EUR/CHF              1.2023 | 1.2019

USD/CHF             0.9658 | 0.9644

GBP/USD             1.5743 | 1.5705

EUR/GBP             0.7928 | 0.7919
For today

EUR: Euro’s struggled through the session in Asia with a reasonably tight range but dipping through the 1.2450 level. The market was really put under pressure as USDJPY moved back above the 118.00 levels. Downside bids around the 1.2440 level are likely to be weak but these light bids move down into the 1.2420 before opening up a further test through the 1.2400 levels and the stronger bids around the 1.2370-60 areas, a push through the levels will likely see the 1.2330 levels tested and an opening the 1.2200 areas. Topside offers around the 1.2520-30 areas before opening another test of the 1.2600 levels however, given a bank holiday in the US the market is likely to becalmed and unlikely to move out of a narrow range.

GBP: Cable trades in line with the Euro through the Asian session with very little movement in the EURGBP cross to define the market. Moving from the opening 1.5740 level to the 1.5710 in selling on the Tokyo opening. The market did recover however; the rest of the session saw the market dip back to below the 1.5710 levels for a second time. Downside bids appear around each sentimental level 1.5650 and then 1.5600 levels where the stronger bids hold having been tested through the level only shallowly. Topside will now see stronger offers in any move to recapture the 1.5800 levels that we saw broken yesterday and a push through the 1.5820 levels will see weak stops.

JPY: USDJPY opened around the 117.70 areas moving quickly higher with a lack of liquidity exaggerating the moves, with Sydney quickly pushing it to the 118.00 level after a weak retail trade figure however, the offers kicked in to hold it below, Tokyo took the market quickly through the level of 118.00 and pushed it too 118.10 with weak stops before the market found some resistance in the 118.20-30 levels before another push to the topside halted the market just above 118.30. Topside offers just above the highs are strong enough for the moment to hold however, a push through the 118.40 areas is likely to see weak stops and another opening to test the 119.00 levels. Downside has light bids into the 117.50 areas before giving way to the 117.20-30 bid areas.

AUD: The Oz continued its declines heading steadily lower as the USD climbed across the board, opening around the 0.8550 levels and already on the back foot the Sydney session sold aggressively, dropping to the 0.8520 levels into the Tokyo session and continuing its steady move lower to touch into the 0.8480’s for new lows not seen since 2010. Downside is now wide open for further declines and while it may not happen today 83 cent is the next level at least however, it’s a bank holiday and this may be exaggerated and false indications. Topside has offers now into the 0.8520 area with weak stops likely above that level, a break above the 0.8550 level opens back the 86 cent levels again however, strong offers in that area are likely.

 

Overnight News

JPY:

Amari: Cheap Oil Good for Economy as Offsets Weak Yen Impact

Japan Inflation Slows in October

Japan Oct household spending falls 4.0% YoY

Japan Oct. Industrial Production Rises 0.2% M/m; Est. -0.6%

Japan Oct. Retail Sales Fall 1.4% M/m; Est. -0.5%

Japan Aims for Cabinet Budget Approval on Jan. 14: Sankei

CNY:

China Govt. Must Intervene to Prevent ‘Hard Landing’: Sec. News

GBP:

U.K. Nov. GfK Consumer Confidence -2 vs Est. -1

NZD:

NZ Business Confidence Gains as Inflation Expectations Drop: ANZ

NZD: New Zealand residential building consents rebound in October

AUD:

Australia Oct. Credit to Business, Consumers Rose 0.6% M/M

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       Building Permits M/M Oct A 8.80% | P -12.20% | R -11.90%

JPY         Unemployment Rate Oct A 3.50% | C 3.60% | P 3.60%

JPY         Household Spending Y/Y Oct A -4.00% | C -5.00% | P -5.60%

JPY         National CPI Core Y/Y Oct A 2.90% | C 2.90% | P 3.00%

JPY         Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Nov A 2.40% | C 2.40% | P 2.50%

JPY         Retail Trade Y/Y Oct A 1.40% | C 1.50% | P 2.30%

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Oct (P) A 0.20% | C -0.50% | P 2.90%

NZD       NBNZ Business Confidence Nov A 31.5 | P 26.5

GBP       GfK Consumer Sentiment Nov A -2 | C -1 | P -2

JPY         Housing Starts Y/Y Oct A -12.30% | C -15.00% | P -14.30%

JPY         Annualized Housing Starts Oct A 0.904M | C 0.876M | P 0.880M

JPY         Construction Orders Y/Y Oct A 15.70% | P -40.30%

07:00     EUR        German Retail Sales M/M Oct C 1.50% | P -3.20%

07:00     GBP       Nationwide House Prices M/M Nov C 0.30% | P 0.50%

08:00     CHF        KOF Leading Indicator Nov C 100 | P 99.8

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct C 11.50% | P 11.50%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Nov C 0.30% | P 0.40%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Nov (A) C 0.70% | P 0.70%

13:30     CAD       GDP M/M Sep C 0.40% | P -0.10%

13:30     CAD       Industrial Product Price M/M Oct C -0.40% | P -0.40%

13:30     CAD       Raw Materials Price Index M/M Oct C 0.30% | P -1.80%

Harry Hindsight              

  • EUR: A quiet day as we head towards thanksgiving in the US, the market opened around the 1.2505 areas and apart from some brief selling to below the 1.2500 level the market edged slowly higher pushing to above the 1.2510 into the later part of the session, grey hours buying took the market to above the 1.2520 levels and into the awaiting offers. A mixed set of data balanced the market somewhat however, added to oil concerns and increased pressure on falling inflation numbers sent the Euro lower dipping back through the 1.2500 levels and triggering weak stops and a move through to the 1.2490 area and then a steadier decline down to the 1.2470 on light volumes throughout the day. The market did recover slightly but was unable to make it back through the 1.2500 level before drifting off again into the US session.
  • GBP: Having spent the previous 24hrs moving up to the 1.5800 levels the market struggled initially in Asia unable to push properly through the level and spending much of the session moving around the 1.5790 levels. Grey hours buying sent the market to above the 1.5820 levels however, the Cable was controlled for the most part by the Euro and the market in Cable fell back as the Euro weakened to the 1.5750 areas. The move from mid London saw the market holding around that level until the move into the NYK session finished the run pushing to the 1.5720 levels and a gentle move back to the 1.5740 levels.
  • JPY: USDJPY started the session trading steadily lower as the market reacted to weak LDP news and the long weekend ahead with the retail market cutting positions. The market eventually broke through the 117.50 level triggering some weak stops and falling to the 117.30 levels and better support or the market ran out of reasons to sell. London opening saw limited buying but day traders were willing to take it on, running the market back to the 117.50 level. The move into NYK was more pronounced with the market squeezing through 117.60 and weak stops lighting the market back to the opening levels. While the market was unable to move through the 117.90 level it held the 117.80-70 levels for much of the session before closing in the area.
  • AUD: Early strength in the Yen saw the Oz moving from the opening higher into Tokyo triggering some weak stops before moving over the course of the Asian session to above the 86 cent levels, London were initially no different and the grey hour players pushed it to 0.8615 before the market started to reverse the movement in the same way the USDJPY was changing direction. The return lower was a steady affair with the market holding the 0.8550 areas for several hours before early Sydney appeared in the market with the day finishing around the 0.8540.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       Trade Balance (NZD) Oct A -908M | C -642M | P -1350M | R -1367M

AUD       Private Capital Expenditure Q3 A 0.20% | C 1.90% | P 1.10% | R 1.60%

EUR        German Unemployment Change Nov A -14K | C -1K | P -22K | R -23K

EUR        German Unemployment Rate Nov A 6.60% | C 6.70% | P 6.70% | R 6.60%

EUR        Eurozone M3 Y/Y Oct A 2.50% | C 2.60% | P 2.50%

EUR        Eurozone Economic Confidence Nov A 100.8 | C 100.3 | P 100.7

EUR        Eurozone Industrial Confidence Nov A -4.3 | C -5.5 | P -5.1

EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Nov (F) A -11.6 | C -11.6 | P -11.6 | R -11.1

EUR        Eurozone Services Confidence Nov A 4.44 | P 4.40

EUR        Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Nov A 0.18 | C 0.02 | P 0.05 | R 0.06

EUR        German GfK Consumer Sentiment Dec A 8.7 | C 8.6 | P 8.5

EUR        German CPI M/M Nov (P) A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P -0.30%

EUR      German CPI Y/Y Nov (P) A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.80%

 

 

Good Luck,

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.