Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close Wellington open

USDJPY 120.365 120.31-41 | EURUSD 1.21785 1.2182-87 | AUDUSD 0.81216 0.8120-25| NZDUSD 0.77632 0.7763-68 | USDCAD 1.16284 1.1617-22 | USDCHF 0.98773 0.9870-80 | GBPUSD 1.55592 1.5564-69 |

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               120.61 | 120.17

EUR/USD             1.2202 | 1.2168

EUR/JPY               146.99 | 146.59

AUD/USD            0.8149 | 0.8110

NZD/USD             0.7780 | 0.7745

USD/CAD             1.1634 | 1.1616

EUR/CHF              1.20315 | 1.2026

USD/CHF             0.9882 | 0.9860

GBP/USD             1.5585 | 1.5550

EUR/GBP             0.7830 | 0.7827

 

For today

  • EUR: Limited movement however, the JPY dominated the market and the Euro eventually started to rally off the lows around the 1.2168 areas as the Japanese market opened, pushing through the opening 1.2180 level with little trouble to push to the 1.2190 levels and a holding area for much of the session. Late into the session the market made its way to the 1.2200 level however, with the festive season holidays continuing in most countries even if the markets are open, the market remains on skeleton staff and little likely to happen during the day. Topside offers into the 1.2220 levels with weak stops likely through that area and opening up for a move to the 1.2300 levels and light stops in front of the level. Downside light bids through 1.2170 levels possibly into the 1.2150 areas before a mixture of interest to the 1.2100 and suspected option barriers.
  • GBP: The Cable moved in the same fashion as the Euro moving off its opening low areas from 1.5555 to trade to the 1.5570 levels in slow trading, a long period of inactivity before the market made a further move to the 1.5585 levels into what will be the London session. Possible offers into the 1.5600 levels with offers likely to be into the 1.5620 levels before a mixture of orders from there into the 1.5670 areas and better offers into the 1.5700 levels. Downside has reasonably strong bids likely into the 1.5500 levels with stops likely to appear on a push through the 1.5480 areas however, with limited volumes until into the New Year things are likely to continue slowly.
  • JPY: USDJPY opened moving steadily higher with the weekend news that the government has approved a $29B spending package to boost the economy, this initially took the market to the 120.60 areas before finding sufficient interest to turn the rally and the market moved back off the 120.50 level to trigger weak stops and through to the 120.30 level, this allowed the other major pairs to rally and the USDJPY finally touched below 120.20 before bouncing a little. Topside offers from the 120.60 and building in size into suspected option barriers around the 121.00 levels, light stops through the area and likely to open the market to the 122.00 levels. Downside as has been seen today see’s light bids into the 120.20 level to the 120.00 before giving way to weak stops and movement to the 119.50 level, the downside becomes fairly weak until the market reaches the 119.00 levels.
    AUD: The market moved in line with USD weakness as the JPY strengthened and gave room for the others to move higher, opening around the 0.8120 levels the market moved steadily off lows into the Tokyo session to trade through the 0.8140 level and triggering light stops to spike to just below the 0.8150 levels, the market then drifted to the 0.8135 areas and the market holds in those areas. Downside bids into the 0.8100 level look to be option barrier interest and have supported the area over the festive period and are likely to continue for the moment, topside offers around the 0.8150 levels are likely to be weak with 0.8200 stronger.

 

Overnight News

EUR:

ECB council member Weidmann comments in FAS newspaper interview

Weidmann ECB must not bow to markets bond buying pressure

Weidmann sees growth higher than thought if oil stays low

Weidmann sees prices lower than thought again if oil stays low

Greek parliament vote could bring back Euro crisis as elections loom

JPY:

Nikkei drops on suspected Ebola case

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

07:00     CHF        UBS Consumption Indicator Nov               P 1.29

 

Stay lucky

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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