Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 120.279 | EURUSD 1.08146 | AUDUSD 0.7635 | NZDUSD 0.74974 | USDCAD 1.2508 | USDCHF 0.96609 | GBPUSD 1.48074 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 120.35 | 119.70
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0853 | 1.0807
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 130.28 | 129.90
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7676 | 0.7632
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7547 | 0.7490
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2511 | 1.2479
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0461 | 1.0446
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96645 | 0.9634
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.4844 | 1.4807
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7313 | 0.7299
For today
- EUR: Euro’s was slowly driven higher from the opening in Asia as light but continual EURJPY cross buying moved in and took the Euro to the 1.0840 level into the Tokyo session before demand dried up, the market then held in the areas for several hours pushing slightly higher as the market moves towards the grey hours. Downside bids into the 1.0800 levels and likely to extend below the 1.0780 areas before weak stops appear even through the 1.0780 levels the market has some limited ability to surprise and only a strong test below the 1.0690 areas opens up further weakness and a move possibly to test the lows of the year. Topside offers will start to appear in earnest around the 1.0880 and into the 1.0900 levels however, we’ve moved through the area several times now and the real offers remain into the 1.1000-40 area with likely stronger stops through the 1.1060 areas.
- GBP: Cable saw steady buying from the opening 1.4810 areas and pushed into the last hour pushing against the 1.4840 areas as the market is dragged along by the Euro’s. Light bids into the 1.4800 level strengthen as the market moves through and into the lows around the 1.4750 areas, with little room below that level and the 1.4700 bids the market starts to see the bottom pickers moving in. Topside offers are light into the 1.4900 area and above remains the same with offers increasing from the 1.4950 and to the 1.5000 levels, a push through the 1.5000 level with conviction will see the market possibly attempt to move quickly to test the 1.51 levels.
- JPY: The market traded slowly lower from the opening around the 120.30 levels with the BoJ monetary policy statement due, the market spent quiet a time moving to the 120.10 and only on the release did it move with conviction as the announcement was came out unchanged and USDJPY quickly moved to the 119.80 levels as the market moves to the grey hours. Bids at the current levels will likely give way to a slight opening in the market however, the past few days has seen a very quiet range around the 119.60 apart from the NFP Friday and chances are the market will stick around the level for a period before attempting to push to the 119.20-118.80 bids with weak stops below the area. Topside sees ever increasing offers from the 120.50 areas and into 121.00 even through 121.20 those offers are likely to be substantial again and the market needs some decent cheerful information one way or the other to break out of the current range, and to be honest the market in general could do with it. However, the Nikkei made new highs and this may cause strengthening in the Yen if it continues.
- AUD: The Oz saw the market steady buyers of the pair however, the crosses maintained a narrow range and it was all AUDUSD pushing from the opening 0.7635 to above the 0.7675 levels and into light offers. A push through the 77 cents is again likely to run into offers from the 0.7710 areas and likely to stiffen into the 0.7750-60 area, a break through the level will then open a test of the 78 cent level and offers are again likely to be strong. Downside bids lightly into the 0.7650 levels and stronger as you approach 76 cent no real sign of stops until the downside lows below 0.7550 are tested however, it’s a long way.
Overnight News
JPY:
Japanese Buy Most Treasuries in Seven Months on Yield Advantage
BOJ Member Kiuchi’s Proposal to Slow Bond Purchases Voted Down
BOJ Keeps Record Stimulus After Inflation Data Drops to Zero
Japan’s Feb. Current-Account Surplus Biggest Since 2011
JPY/CNY:
Japan Eyes Maximum $1.5b Contribution to China Bank: Nikkei
JPY/IDR:
Asahi Glass to Build Coal-Fired Plant in Indonesia, Nikkei Says
HKD/CNY:
HKEx Says Southbound Trading Turnover under Stock Link Hits Record
CNY:
Chinese Economy Faces Increasing Downward Pressure: Bus. News
China Plans Iron Ore Subsidy for Miners Amid Rout, News Reports
AUD/CNY:
RBA Signs New Bilateral Local Currency Swap Agreement With PBOC
Australia ANZ Weekly Consumer Sentiment Weakest in 8 Months
GBP:
U.K. March BRC Shop Price Index -2.1% Y/y vs Feb. -1.7% Y/y
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Mar A -2.10% | P -1.70%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Feb A 0.60T | C 0.61T | P 1.06T
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey: Current Mar A 52.2 | C 50.9 | P 50.1
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Feb C 1.50% | P -3.90%
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Mar C 0.10% | P -0.30%
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Mar C 1.00% | P -0.80%
08:10Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail PMI Mar P 46.4
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Feb C -0.10% | P 1.10%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 4.8M
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: Asia was particularly quiet and you could be forgiven in believing Easter was a far east holiday, opening around the 1.0930 level the market moved eventually higher and into the 1.0950’s as the market expectations for the Oz kicked in however, the RBA had limited impact on the Euro and although the market drifted back to the opening levels the move into the grey hours was less exciting than you would usually find in the period, London held the levels until the PMI numbers for the Eurozone and a slight dip sent the market lower, investment numbers then followed and showed weaker and the market quickly dropped over a 30min period to the 1.0840 area before finding some support and the market then ran around the 1.0860 levels into the NYK session and the drift continued into the session, eventually the downside 1.0840 levels broke and the market dipped to the next level and struggled to break 1.0820 before pushing below 1.0810 into the closing period as the USD rally continued. Although the individual PMI’s of Spain and Italy showed good readings this was of little consequence to the Euro while they are calling this a USD move the move was purely Euro for and the damage was done during the London session. The US markets saw a rally in yields which eventually underpinned the USD’s strength.
- GBP: Cables moves were less dramatic however, it became a little bit choppy into the London session having seen the Asian session move off the 1.4880 opening levels and ease gradually to the 1.4920 levels, for the most part Cable stayed comfortable in the aftermath of the Eurozone PMI however, the drag from the collapsing Euro and EURGBP eventually saw GBP being dragged quickly to the 1.4840 level before moving steadily back above 1.4900 with the help of strong services PMI in London. The move into the NYK session saw the Cable initially holding the 1.4900 level started to succumb to a reinvigorated USD and again the market tested lower this time triggering weak stops towards the lows and pushing through to just below 1.4810 into the close. The EURGBP cross moved gently from the 0.7350 levels and into London dropping quickly from 0.7330 and pushing through to 0.7290 levels eventually before holding in the areas.
- JPY: The weakness in the Euro eventually awakened movement in the USDJPY, moving through Asia the USDJPY remained in a tight range pushing eventually above the 119.60 level from the opening areas around 119.50, even the quick movement in the AUDJPY after the RBA’s announcement only had a limited impact price wise however, the Yen was actively trading and the erosion of the offers to the topside offers allowed the market to move more strongly as the Euro weakened and USDJPY gradually moved to the 120.00 levels before holding quietly until the NYK session saw another push higher and a move to the 120.40 levels then trading quietly again into the close.
- AUD: A little choppy in the early part of the session as the market positioned itself for the RBA announcement and while the chance of a cut was there the market had already predicted the result and the no change was of no surprise however, the market reacted with strong buying entering the market pushing quickly from 76 cent to 77 cent in a short space of time however, as the market had been prepared for the information the move back was initially gentle and continued into the NYK session making several dips until the market was basing off the 0.7630 levels and a quiet close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Feb A 0.70% | C 0.40% | P 0.40% | R 0.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 2.25% | C 2.25% | P 2.25%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves Mar A 522.3B | C 509.3B | P 509.2B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Mar A 51.6 | C 51.1 | P 50
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Markit Eurozone Services PMI Mar (F) A 54.2 | C 54.3 | P 54.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Apr A 20 | C 20.9 | P 18.6
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Mar A 58.9 | C 57.1 | P 56.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M Feb A 0.50% | C 0.20% | P -0.90% | R -1.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Feb A -2.80% | C -3.00% | P -3.40% | R -3.50%
Good Luck,
Andy
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