Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 119.401 | EURUSD 1.06546 | AUDUSD 0.76276 | NZDUSD 0.75279 | USDCAD 1.24849 | USDCHF 0.97246 | GBPUSD 1.4780 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 119.75 | 119.34
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06585 | 1.0617
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 127.23 | 127.08
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7635 | 0.7580
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7542 | 0.7487
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2500 | 1.2477
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0361 | 1.0349
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97525 | 0.9726
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.4783 | 1.4745
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72105 | 0.7200
For today
·        EUR: Euro’s drifted steadily lower over the course of the session with no follow through of the move in NYK, the market opened around the 1.0650 and once into the Tokyo session the selling continued and the market limped to the 1.0620 levels with the USD rallying to some extent across the board. Topside light offers now into the 1.0660 levels with weak stops likely through the level and stronger offers as you move into and through the 1.0700 level and possibly to the 1.0720 before any weakness shows, through the 1.0760 level is likely to see stops and the market opens for a test through to the 1.0800 levels and then possible heavy offers. Downside has bids into the 1.0600 areas however these are not likely to be that strong for the moment and the market is open to the 1.0550 areas and stronger bids from then on. ECB raised the Emergency liquidity assistance to €74B for Greece overnight increasing Greece’s emergency funding by €800mio, and the German parliament rejecting a third bailout for Greece.
- GBP: A slow day for Cable and a steady drift lower over the course of the session from the 1.4780 levels to rest on the 1.4750 areas. Topside offers into the 1.4800 levels with possible stops on a move through the level with congestion then through to the 1.4850 levels and resistance at the level likely to slow any move down for the moment one would suspect. Downside is a little more open with possibly only light bids into the 1.4700 and opening possibly stronger bids from the 1.4650 level and into 1.4600. Any movement is likely to be Euro related, although London may react to the IMF commentary that the US is slowing because of the rising USD, only about 3 months after it was mooted in the market but who knows.
- JPY: Light buying throughout the market as USD regained some of its losses however, it was light and the market edged from the 119.40 opening areas to trade through the 119.70 levels into the late session, no more comments on the day and one assumes yesterday’s commentary was either out of place or just enough to change the direction for the moment, not that US was complaining I suppose. Topside offers are likely to start from the 119.80 levels however, they are probably for the moment light and with no follow up commentary the market will likely take it as a sign of weakness and be able to push back through the 120.00 levels with little problem, the offers though are likely to be stronger once the market pushes to the 120.50 areas and really struggle from there to the 121.00 levels, a breakthrough 121.10-20 will see stops appearing and then nothing, one would guess that if the Government is serious it will say something if not then the offers will appear and the market will struggle over a few days breaking down the resistance. Downside bids into the 119.20 levels reappear and then the weak stops likely through the 118.70 level, the downside without yield players does seem to be the weaker point however, until it breaks lower and tests through the 118.70 levels the market is guessing if the support will appear.
- AUD: Mixed fortunes for the Oz today with concern that the price of Iron could slip further before stabilizing and then an announcement from Moody’s that the Aaa rating is good as the Government go forward with good growth and low debt. Opening around the 0.7630 level the market slipped continually lower with CNY numbers again disappointing the market and in particular the Oz, the release initially saw the market spike to above the 0.7630 levels before the full import of the numbers dawned on the players with EA’s and the market dropped quickly back to the 0.7590 levels, while the market has slowly continued to decline the Moody’s comments have supported the market into the grey hours and the market holds just below the 76cent level. Topside offers into the 0.7640-50 areas are likely to open the market to weak stops and a move to the 77 cent level, the offers around the area are a little thin however, a push through that level and the market starts to see stronger resistance on a move through the 0.7730 areas and into the 0.7760. Downside bids from the 0.7580 levels are likely to increase into the years lows and even if the 0.7550-40 level breaks the market is likely to run into strong bids into the 75 cent level and option barriers.
Overnight News
CNY:
China’s Economy Grew 7.0% Y/y in 1Q; Est. 7.0%
Chinese Factory Output Misses All Forecasts, Weakest in 6 Years
China 1Q Property Dev. Investment Rises 8.5%
China Unlikely to See Double-Dip in Economic Growth: NBS Sheng
China’s Lower Growth Rate within Expectation, NBS Spokesman Says
China Domestic Demand, Investment Have Potential: NBS
China Raises Yuan Reference Rate by Most since March 19
AUD:
Australia Faces Challenges on Commodities, Deficits: Moody’s
JPY:
Japan Needs to Be ‘More Ambitious’ on Reforms for Growth: OECD
EUR:
German Parliamentary Leader Rejects Third Greek Bailout: Bild
USD:
Fed’s Kocherlakota Says FOMC Should Delay Raising Interest Rates
NZD:
Spencer Says RBNZ Can’t Raise Rates to Damp Housing Demand
New Zealand food prices edge higher in March
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Apr A -3.20% | P -1.20%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales YTD Y/Y Mar A 10.20% | C 10.80% | P 10.70%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production YTD Y/Y Mar A 5.60% | C 6.90% | P 6.80%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Mar A 13.50% | C 13.90% | P 13.90%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Y/Y Q1 A 7.00% | C 7.00% | P 7.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Feb (F) A -3.10% | C -3.10% | P -3.40%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Mar (F) C 0.50% | P 0.50%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Mar (F) C 0.30% | P 0.30%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Feb P 21.6B
11:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision C 0.05% | P 0.05%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Apr C 6.5 | P 6.9
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Feb C -0.20% | P -1.70%
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Mar C -0.20% | P 0.10%
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Mar C 78.70% | P 78.90%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Apr C 55 | P 53
14:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision C 0.75% | P 0.75%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 10.9M
18:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Fed Beige Book
20:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows Feb C 23.4B | P -$27.2B
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: The initial rally in the Euro was blunted with offers above the 1.0590 level into Asia and commentary from Koichi Hamada for the second time having blunted the market in NYK he again verbally intervened and cross JPY selling impacted the Euro more than anything else sending the market on a steady decline into the grey hours and a push below the 1.0540 level before support appeared as early London sat down, the market moved to the 1.0570’s into the opening in London but failed to push ahead and limped through the session pretty much ignoring the Eurozone IP numbers and failing to move above the 1.0580 levels, NYK opened with little interest that is until the US releases started to impact and a weaker than expected retail sales figure was enough to set the USD back and Euro jumped to the 1.0620 level triggered weak stops and pushed to the 1.0680 levels, steady pressure manage to push the market eventually through the level and a quick move to just above the 1.0700 level made the highs, and then the market drifted off from those eyes as interest waned into the later part of the NYK session.
- GBP: Cable moved sideways through the Asian session pushing from the opening levels of 1.4680 it managed limited gains above the 1.4690 levels before cross JPY selling pushed into the market, the move into the grey hours was a little less exciting than the Euro however, the cross selling had limited impact to be honest and just changed the direction the market was drifting. The opening in London saw the market move back to the opening levels before the release of the inflationary news, the market had been drifting lower and more a consequence of the Euro’s moves to below the 1.0540 level however, it dipped as the news came in as expected and the market moved towards the 1.4600 levels before finding enough support to move back away after the initial selling was done with, the market had regained most of its losses as we moved into the NYK session and the retail sales number caused a minor short squeeze for the Cable and the market pushed quickly to the 1.4720 levels before pushing through and rising quickly to the 1.4780 levels and the highs just through the 1.4800 level, the market then found enough resistance to hold the market from a larger move and although the market tested the level again was never quite strong enough to push through the level and finished the day drifting to the close around the 1.4780 levels. EURGBP cross saw the 72p level eventually broken however, the move down was limited and it was unable to push through the 0.7180 levels before the market bounced with a little help from the headline CPI number in the UK and EURGBP moved back above the 0.7200 levels.
- JPY: USDJPY had dropped back on the late NYK comments from Koichi Hamada a senior aide to Abe with suggestions that a more suitable level for the USDJPY would be 105.00 and that given Yen selling was reaching its Limit. So the USDJPY was under pressure from the onset and moved from the 120.10 areas dipping through the session to make lows every few hours pushing through to 119.80 and into the support much reduced by the comments and then into the grey hours to push into the 119.60’s early London saw the market move a little higher however cross selling again became involved and the USDJPY moved through the 119.60 level for the first time. The move into the NYK session saw quick early buying to take the market back briefly above the 120.00 level and holding just below the level as we moved to the releases, The USDJPY dropped away from the 120.00 quickly struggled through the 119.60 areas and continued in a steady drop to the 119.10 areas before hitting limited support, the rest of the session was dull with the market steadily rising to the 119.40 levels into the close and no further upsets.
- AUD: The Oz moved from the opening levels steadily higher as the JPY strengthened and the Carry trade remained static, a good NAB confidence number helped and the market moved away from the opening 0.7590 levels to push above the 0.7620 levels into the first half of the Tokyo session, the comments mentioned above however, were enough to unbalance the market and the Oz was sold as a consequence of Carry trade selling more than anything seeing the AUDJPY cross drop to the 90.50 level over the course of Asia and into early London, weakness in the other currencies saw Oz crosses against GBP and Euro actively bought and the Oz started a long rally higher increasing in movement on the release of the US data, pushing to its peak just shy of the 0.7650 levels into the NYK session, the market then drifted for the session into the close to finish well above the 76 cent level.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Sales Monitor Y/Y Mar A 3.20% | P 0.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Mar A 3 | P 0
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Mar A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Mar A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y Mar A 1.00% | C 1.20% | P 1.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M Mar A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y Mar A 0.90% | C 1.00% | P 1.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input M/M Mar A 0.30% | C -0.50% | P 0.20% | R 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input Y/Y Mar A -13.00% | C -13.50% | P -13.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output M/M Mar A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Y/Y Mar A -1.70% | C -1.80% | P -1.80% | R -1.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core M/M Mar A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.10% | R 0.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core Y/Y Mar A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.20% | R 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y Feb A 7.20% | C 8.70% | P 8.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Feb A 1.10% | C 0.30% | P -0.10% | R -0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Mar A 0.90% | C 1.00% | P -0.60% | R -0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Mar A 0.40% | C 0.70% | P -0.10% | R 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Mar A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P -0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Mar A -0.80% | C -0.90% | P -0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Mar A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P -0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Mar A 0.90% | C 1.00% | P 1.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Feb A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.00%
Good Luck,
Andy
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