Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 119.468 | EURUSD 1.13474 | AUDUSD 0.79681 | NZDUSD 0.74978 | USDCAD 1.20455 | USDCHF 0.91619 | GBPUSD 1.52452 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 119.605 | 119.32
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1349 | 1.1325
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 135.59 | 135.19
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8005 | 0.7924
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7528 | 0.7484
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2058 | 1.2035
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.04025 | 1.0384
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9172 | 0.9157
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5247 | 1.523
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7443 | 0.74385
For today
- EUR: Very little in the way the way of surprises and the market having opened around the 1.1350 levels drifted steadily into the 1.1320’s before pushing back towards the opening levels after the Oz employment numbers. With limited volumes the market has tested neither side. Offers into the 1.1400 areas with the market likely to continue over the next big figure with likely light stops through the 1.1430 level only to see further offerings along the way, a push to the 1.1500 level will see stronger offers however, a solid break through the 1.1530 areas opens up a bigger move and the market is likely to open to the 1.2300-1.2400 levels however, that would be running contrary to the fundamentals in the European area. Downside bids are light into the 1.1280 areas with weak stops through the level and then the market opening to a test of 1.1200 levels again opens up the downside to deeper move to the 1.1000 areas. Greece remains at the front of the Europeans fixture list, with indications of the Greeks reassessing the previous governments decisions with the rehiring of 15,000 public sector workers in a clear breach of the tenants attached to previous bailout funds, so either they’re again pushing the Europeans into another corner or they don’t care and Grexit is closer than we imagine. However, this is pure conjecture and reports could be misleading.
- GBP: Cable has traded very quietly around the 1.5240 levels and as you would expect on an election day the market is likely to continue through the current session moving on rumours, exit polls and movements in other currencies, once we move into the next session when the results start to form the market will probably start to awaken and move more clearly. Downside light bids into the 1.5150 areas are just that light however; the market could open to a test of 1.5100 areas and possibly a stronger area for the moment. Topside offers into the 1.5300 area are likely to be stronger and hold out unless USD really folds as the market becomes focused on the election rumours a push through opens the 1.5350 areas with light offers and similar in the 1.5400 no real stops having recently traversed the levels with strong offers only likely around the 1.5500 areas.
- JPY: A narrow range for USDJPY with the market opening just below the 119.50 level and holding into the Tokyo session before moving a little lower to test the supportive areas below 119.40, with little news overall the market has recovered in later trading more dominated by AUDJPY carry trade buying now that the 200 DMA has been broken however, USDJPY refused to move to far from the opening and pushed briefly against the 119.60 levels before running out of steam. Topside offers light into the 119.70 level however, with a gap in the charts from the US numbers yesterday the market if it can get moving will fill that in and test back to the 119.80 were better offers are likely to appear, a move through the 120.30 levels will likely see weak stops but for the sake of 20 pips topside offers are likely then to continue from the 120.50 areas. Downside bids from the 119.20 level are likely to continue through to the 118.80 areas, and although there are possibilities of stops through the level 118.50 has contained the market over the past month into the 118.50 levels and very little daylight appears until 118.00 is cleared and even then the chances of the yield buyers moving in remain.
- AUD: Oz drifted from the opening 0.7970 areas pushing lower into the Tokyo session to trade into the 0.7950 levels, the employment numbers came in slightly below expectations and the market immediately saw the downside as algo’s jumped on the number to push into the 0.7925 areas before quickly bouncing back as the details were released, the market from that point on pushed higher to test again through the 80 cent levels before drifting lower having exhausted itself in the push. Market holds into the grey hours around the 0.7990 levels and not too far away from those highs. Weak offers to the topside with the likelihood of weak stops through yesterday’s highs, but further offerings into the 0.8050 level for the moment and then an opening to test the 81 cent level and possibly causing a reaction from the RBA if only verbal. Downside bids are weak at best with light bids into the 79 cent area and better likely into the 0.7850 and through to 78 cents a push through here will see some stops probably but the market is then congested over the next big figure and a struggle on a normal day.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
AUD:
Australian April Employment Fell 2,900 M/M; Est. 4,000 Rise
Australia’s April Construction Index Falls 3.1 Pts M/m to 47
NZD:
N.Z. Considers Tax Rule Changes to Stem Multinational Avoidance
CNY:
China Shareholders Sell Record Unlocked Shares April: Sec. Times
JPY:
Japan Monetary Base Outstanding 305.9t Yen at End-April
CHF:
Switzerland April Consumer Confidence -6 vs Est. -11
SGD:
IMF May Revise Down Singapore Forecast ‘Very Modestly’: Heenan
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Apr A 35.20% | C 34.30% | P 35.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Apr A -2.9K | C 3.0K | P 37.7K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr A 6.20% | C 6.20% | P 6.10%
05:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SECO Consumer Confidence Apr C -11 | P -6
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Mar C 1.50% | P -0.90%
08:10Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail PMI Apr P 48.6
11:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Apr P 6.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Mar P -0.90%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 2) C 277K | P 262K
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: The market opened quietly trading from the 1.1190 areas to test the 1.1180 supportive areas through into Tokyo before breaking a little higher after the CNY releases and causing a small short squeeze through stops and a run to the 1.1240 levels, the move into the London session saw the market testing only slightly higher and a push into the offers beginning around the 1.1270 before drifting back to the 1.1200 levels as the market moved into the NYK. Weak ADP figures set the market rallying again and the push to the 1.1280 levels and struggling gradually through the level to push through 1.1300 triggering weak stops and possibly option defence quickly trying to cover their shorts for a quick move again to the 1.1320 level and into further stops and a push to the 1.1370 levels, the rally over for the time being and London disappearing from the market saw the market again attempt the topside however, the market was less convincing in the move and drifted from that point onwards for a quiet close.
- GBP: Cable saw a fairly choppy day as it tried to resist movements in either direction, opening around the 1.5180 levels the market drifted into the Tokyo session testing only slightly lower before moving up once the CNY data was released and a small short squeeze in the Euro, this took the Cable to the 1.5240 level into the London session Services PMI numbers was impressive given the back drop of previous PMI numbers however, the market dropped back quickly to make new lows for the day around 1.5150 as EURGBP pushed through the 0.7400 for the first time on the day, the US numbers saw the market run to the 0.7450 levels as the Euro out stripped the rally in Cable, Cable eventually pushed to trade to the 1.5290 areas before failing the topside levels and drifting back to the 1.5250-40 areas into the close.
- JPY: USDJPY opened around the 119.85 levels and pushed gradually into the Tokyo session to above the 120.05 areas before drifting back to the opening levels. The move into the London session saw USDJPY slowly drifting lower and into the full session the market ran into the bids just through the 119.70 levels and was reluctant to push for stops and headed back to the opening levels, the release of the US data saw the market gap lower and this time the market triggered stops and after a short period continued lower and a push to the next support areas around the 119.20 level , the market then saw a 40 pip range before running out around the 119.50 levels into the close.
- AUD: The Oz opened around the 0.7940 levels and dipped to the 0.7920 levels before a steady rise from the opening in Tokyo, supply in AUDJPY contained the market for a period around the 0.9770 levels before the carry trade broke through the 95.50-60 areas and the 200DMA the move into the NYK session and the release of the US numbers helped the Oz move higher and the market pushed to the 0.8030 levels before rejecting the level and dropping back to the 0.7970 levels and a quiet range to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Q1 A 5.80% | C 5.50% | P 5.70% | R 5.80%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Q/Q Q1 A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P 1.20%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cost Private Sector Q/Q Q1 A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Apr A -1.90% | C -1.70% | P -2.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Mar A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.70%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â HSBC China Composite PMI Apr A 51.3 | P 51.8
CNY Â Â Â Â Â Â HSBC China services PMI Apr A 52.9 | P 52.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Apr (F) A 54.1 | C 53.7 | P 53.7
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Apr A 59.5 | C 58.5 | P 58.9
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI Apr A 58.4 | C 58.1 | P 58.8 | R 58.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Mar A -0.80% | C -0.70% | P -0.20% | R 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Apr A 169K | C 190K | P 189K | R 175K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Non-Farm Productivity Q1 (P) A -1.90% | C -1.90% | P -2.20% | R -2.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q1 (P) A 5.00% | C 4.10% | P 4.10% | R 4.20%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Apr A 58.2 | C 50.1 | P 47.9
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -3.9M | C 1.3M | P 1.9M
Good Luck,
Andy
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