Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 119.746 | EURUSD 1.12666 | AUDUSD 0.7906 | NZDUSD 0.74383 | USDCAD 1.21283 | USDCHF 0.9216 | GBPUSD 1.52488 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 119.97 | 119.63
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1280 | 1.1198
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 134.95 | 134.32
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7929 | 0.7863
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7462 | 0.7422
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2134 | 1.2095
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0382 | 1.0347
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9243 | 0.92045
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5523 | 1.5240
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7376 | 0.7225
For today
- EUR: Trading was dominated by the EURGBP and the election results being released continually through the session, the initial moves from the opening saw the Euro dip from the 1.1270 levels to trade down into the 1.1230 areas into the Tokyo opening and a limited recovery to just under the 1.1260 levels before again starting a steady decline as GBP reigned King for the day, the move towards the grey hours saw the market dip further and test through support and touch lightly through the 1.1200 level before moving back to 1.1220 and into the grey hours. Topside offers are light through to the 1.1320 levels however, there are some a move to the 1.1380 area sees stronger offers through to the 1.1400 level and a push through here opens up a larger move possible. Downside sees bids to the 1.1180 level however, with pressure in the EURGBP for the moment these bids are possibly not enough to limit the fall a push through the 1.1170 level opens up a large potential to the 1.1000 areas but the UK news is almost spent and with 200 seats left to decide and mostly safe seats there is little for the moment to upset the market other than late comers to the new levels.
- GBP: The announcement by the BBC of exit polls suggesting great portions of the vote going to the Conservative party cheered the market and Cable quickly rallied higher pushing from the closing levels to hit 1.5450 very quickly, the market a little over done drifted back into the Tokyo session pushing back through the 1.5400 level before again starting a more steady rise and pushing eventually through the 1.5500 level into the late session as Labour losses increased and increased the potential for a continuation of the current government in some form and less in need of horse trading to get there, as we speak 200 seat results remain and are predominately in England and for the most part in the Conservative strong holds. Topside offers have been cleared around the 1.5500 levels however; some work will still need to be done through 1.5550 and a particularly tough level from 1.5600 onwards. Downside bids are limited given the move higher during the session with the possibility of weak stops through the 1.5400 levels, nothing likely to show with a mixed set of limited orders from there down into the 1.5300 before bids are likely to stiffen.
- JPY: Buying in GBP helped to drive the USDJPY higher as cross GBPJPY pushed USDJPY through the limited offers to the mid 119.90’s from a long move in Tokyo to those levels from the opening 119.70 levels, some dissension in the BoJ was highlighted in the BoJ minutes to send the USDJPY briefly lower at the beginning of the session and the market hit the 119.60 level although the market has played around the 119.90 for the most of the session. Topside offers into the 120.20 levels with possible mixture of stops and those stops likely to make an appearance through the 120.30 areas before offers start to dominate again from the 120.50-121.00 level, Downside bids into the 119.20-119.00 levels and those bids likely to continue albeit it weaker until the market runs to the 118.60 levels and stronger bids. Â With the bulk of the news out of the way in UK the day will slip into the usual NFP day one would imagine.
- AUD: From the opening levels around the 0.7910 area the market drifted steadily lower with light GBPAUD buying forcing the Oz a little lower until the release of the CNY trade numbers, the reading was weaker than expected but only just and the market couldn’t decide on how to read it and rallied and then dropped back quickly from the spike above 0.7920 and then a move to the 0.7860 areas, the bounce was like that of a wet cat only just scraping through the 0.7880 levels and until the grey hours the market held the level before moving back to the opening levels. Topside offers into the 0.7980 levels and through the to around 0.8020 levels from there the likelihood is a mixture of orders with 0.8040-60 being dominated by offers, downside bids light into the 0.7860 levels before the market opens for a test into the 78 cent area.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
GBP:
Cameron Set to Keep Power as Nationalists Sweep Scotland
CNY:
China April Exports Fall 6.2% Y/y in Yuan; Est. +0.9%
China State Council Said to Approve Shenzhen-Hong Kong Connect
JPY:
BOJ Board Members: Price Expectations Rising on Long Term Basis
Japan’s Amari Says No Discussion of FX Provisions in TPP Talks
AUD:
RBA Cuts Growth and Inflation Forecasts, Says A$ Fall Likely
RBA to Continue to Assess Outlook, Adjust Policy as Needed
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Apr A $34.13B | C $34.25B | P $3.08B
05:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr C 3.30% | P 3.20%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Mar C 0.40% | P 0.20%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance (EUR) Mar C 20.0B | P 19.7B
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Apr C 0.10% | P 0.30%
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Apr C -0.90% | P -0.90%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Mar C -9.8B | P -10.3B
12:15Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Apr C 187K | P 189.7K
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Apr P 28.7K
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr P 6.80%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Apr C 230K | P 126K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr C 5.40% | P 5.50%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Apr C 0.20% | P 0.30%
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Mar C 0.30% | P 0.30%
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: Asia drifted somewhat with only minor deviations in the Euro as the market moved towards another day with Greece likely to dominate the market. Asia was unable to move the market and the Euro saw only a little movement over the release of the Oz employment numbers dipping to below the 1.1330 levels after the release from the opening 1.1340’s before regaining the opening levels as we moved into London, with talk of the Greeks reversing austerity measures the market initially focused on fixed income gains as yields in the Bund increased, Euro’s worked steadily to above the 1.1380 levels and into the waiting offers, the market rejected the level and added to initial claims numbers in the US the USD quickly took control against everything accept the GBP and Euro’s was sold steadily lower over the course of the next few hours to push to the 1.1240 levels before finding enough support to hold the slide, the bounce was weak however, the market managed to hold above the lows to finish the day around the 1.1265 area.
- GBP: With election day kicking off early in the UK Asia flat lined through the session holding the opening 1.5240-50 areas for the majority of the session dipping a little below the 1.5240 levels but moving into the London session dipping to the 1.5200 levels and eventually moving through as EURGBP cross pushed to the 0.7480 as polls continued to suggest an even fight between the Labour and Conservative parties, the market held the lows just through 1.5170 and returned to the 1.5220 areas and moved into the NYK session with a similar movement lower and then back as the markets longs took their positions back one assumes before running towards the close. The close however, saw a sharp move higher with exit polls beginning to indicate a far greater vote for the Conservatives than had been expected and the market pushed into the 1.5250 area. With the EURGBP dropping to the 0.7380 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY struggled through the Asian session with limited movement, opening around the 119.45 areas and dipped into the mid 119.30’s before finding support once the Australian employment figures were released with AUDJPY carry doing some work to the topside. The market pushing up to the 119.60 levels before settling down to trade around the 119.50 areas into the London session, early Euro strength producing USD weakness saw the USDJPY slipping back through the London session as the EURJPY found resistance into the 136.00 areas however the move into the NYK session saw the USD pushing back and the USDJPY starting a steady rise through the session to above the 119.80 and offers into that area, the move to the close saw GBP buying and again the USDJPY dipped a little from those highs.
- AUD: The Oz move quietly from the opening drifting from the 0.7970 areas to the 0.7955 area in the lead up to the numbers, as everyone has come to expect the number was immaterial to the movement that followed with the headline number dipping to -2.9K a small amount and the instant selloff from 0.7960 to just above the 0.7920 before snapping back quickly and then driving steadily to above the 80 cent level before running into light offers and out of steam, the market drifted to the 0.7980 levels into the London session and more sensible reaction into London with the market slowly retracing the gains as AUDJPY selling moved into the end of the Tokyo session, the market held through London around the 0.7940 areas pushing to above 0.7960 in tight range trading before NYK came in buying USD’s against all but the GBP and the Oz slowly slipped through the session to trade around the 79 cent level into the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Apr A 35.20% | C 34.30% | P 35.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Apr A -2.9K | C 3.0K | P 37.7K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr A 6.20% | C 6.20% | P 6.10%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SECO Consumer Confidence Apr A -6 | C -11 | P -6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Mar A 0.90% | C 1.50% | P -0.90%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail PMI Apr A 49.5 | P 48.6
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Apr A 52.80% | P 6.40%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Mar A 11.60% | C 2.10% | P -0.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 2) A 265K | C 277K | P 262K
Good Luck,
Andy
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