Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 120.08 | EURUSD 1.11551 | AUDUSD 0.78905 | NZDUSD 0.73516 | USDCAD 1.20993 | USDCHF 0.93413 | GBPUSD 15586 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 120.20 | 120.06
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1173 | 1.1134
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 134.29 | 133.77
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7931 | 0.7887
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7371 | 0.7328
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2107 | 1.2087
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0423 | 1.0412
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9360 | 0.9334
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5590 | 1.5563
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7174 | 0.71535
For today
- EUR: The Euro slowly drifted from the opening pushing down into the 1.1130 levels that held yesterday before bouncing back to above the 1.1160 levels with what seemed to be one off flows chasing the market, the market continues to hold the 1.1160 levels and quietly moves towards London with slow trading throughout the session. Topside offers light into the 1.1170 levels with stronger offers probably appearing from the 1.1200-20 areas and possibly further into the 1.1240 levels, a push through this area will likely see weak stops and a move towards the 1.1280’s before offers start to dominate again, a push through the 1.1300 area will likely see a small squeeze higher and into the 1.1380-1.1400 where stronger offers are likely to appear to contain the market. Downside bids into the 1.1100 areas and possibly extending a little further a push through the 1.1070 areas will see stops appearing in the market and the market opening for a test to the 1.1000 areas with limited bids to the 1.0980 stronger levels.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.5590 areas the market has slipped slightly lower over the course of the day pushing down into the 1.5570 areas and holding in the area for the bulk of a quiet session. Notwithstanding the numbers today which could surprise one way or the other, topside offers are likely to be fairly thick into the 1.5640-50 areas and again into 1.5700 however, there is probably a mixture involved with possibility of stops for the breakout above 1.5800 however, this is dependent for the day on those Production numbers. Downside bids are light into the 1.5500 areas with weak stops likely through the area and opening a fresh test of the 1.5400 levels, a strong move through the level will open up the potential to reverse the gains to the 1.5250 levels.
- JPY: A quiet session with the USDJPY moving from the 120.10 areas to slowly move above the 120.15 level into the Tokyo session, light selling in USDJPY as the EURJPY moved to the 134.00 area took the USDJPY back towards the lows before the cross offers gave way allowing the limited move higher and a test of the 120.20 level. Offers to the topside through the highs likely to disappear once the 120.30 level breaks however, the offers quickly reappear as the market moves to the 120.50 level and are likely to increase on a move towards 120.80, a break through the 121.00-30 level will open the market only slightly for a test higher however, for the moment those offers are likely to contain the market. Downside bids are likely to run to the 119.60 level before the market opens briefly to the 119.20 areas and better bids from that point, for the moment the market continues to be caught in reasonably tight range with 118.60-121.00 currently defining a quiet market.
- AUD: While the Oz recovered the losses from yesterday the same range defined the day with the market moving off the 0.7880’s and pushing gradually higher as the AUDJPY pushed through the previous session 95.00 defended levels, with the Oz steadily pushing through the 0.7920 levels to top just above the 0.7930 areas before running out of steam. Topside offers likely to continue from the highs for only a short distance however, they are likely to increase as the market moves towards the 80 cent level again with those offers increasing through the level and into the 0.8020 level, a break above the 0.8040-50 area will leave the market with a chance to push higher however, the market being this quiet the potential is limited. Downside bids into the 0.7860 levels are weak at best but have been sufficient to slow the market on several attempts however, for the moment 0.7820-00 levels sees better bids with stops likely through the levels.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
JPY:
Kuroda: Not Thinking of Cutting Interest Rate on Excess Reserves
Japan GDP Growth Forecast 0.5% in 2015, 1% in 2016, Moody’s Says
KRW/JPY:
South Korea Says Uncertainties Caused by Weak Yen Persist
S. Korea’s Park Calls for Measures on Weak Yen, Global Slowdown
CNY:
China 1Q Current Account Surplus $78.9b
Moody’s:
Currency Shifts to Widen Gap between Economies, Moody’s Says
AUD:
Australia ANZ Weekly Consumer Sentiment Rises 1.7% to 110.6
GBP:
U.K. LFL April Retail Sales Fall 2.4 YoY, BRC Says
NZD:
N.Z. Annual House-Price Inflation Accelerates to 9.3%
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Apr A -2.40% | P 3.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans Mar A 1.60% | C 1.10% | P 1.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Mar (P) A 105.5 | C 105.5 | P 104.8
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Mar C 0.10% | P 0.10%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Mar C 0.20% | P 0.10%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Mar C 0.30% | P 0.40%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Mar C 1.00% | P 1.10%
14:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Apr P 0.60%
18:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Monthly Budget Statement Apr C 138.0B | P -52.9B
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: Early concerns with the situation with Greece, comments by Schaeuble’s left the market vulnerable moving from just above the 1.1200 area the market dropped in the Tokyo session to trade down to the 1.1150’s and held for a few hours before dipping lower again and into the 1.1130 levels from there the market was contained and the range defined for the day, early London took the market back towards the 1.1200 areas before drifting into the NYK session drifting lower and back to the 1.1130 areas, with little in the way of news the market continued drifting in an ever decreasing range to settle quietly in the 1.1150’s.
- GBP: With the market still perceiving that the UK has less uncertainty now than last week the Cable again rose quietly through the London session and with the 1.5500 level breached previously the topside was open. Opening little changed from Friday’s close the market drifted lower with the drag of the Euro in Asian trading moving into the London session touching through the 1.5400 level on twice before lifting steadily higher, the move into London saw the market pushing the 1.5500 level and the break triggered only minor stops pushing through the previous highs and a further round of weak stops to the 1.5560 areas, the market continued to push gradually higher and by the end of London the market was against the 1.5600 levels and stronger offers before settling back to finish just off the highs. Some of the movement in the Cable could be laid at the door of a falling Euro with the commentary coming thick and fast and very little of it useful EURGBP cross moved steadily lower over the course of the day dropping from the 0.7250 levels in a tight channel to touch into the 0.7140 levels before settling into a quiet range around 0.7160 area.
- JPY: With the Euro declining the market saw the USD able to move against the flow and USDJPY slowly appreciated over the course of the day. Moving from the opening 119.70 levels the market edged into the Tokyo market around the 119.85 levels and although supply for the fix returned the market to the start it was a minor blip before rising again, the move through into London was a slow affair and the market topped into the early part of London just above the 120.00 levels before seeing light GBPJPY profit taking in the market and a drift back and into the NYK session, the market eventually tested through the 120.00 level again and this time pushed gradually to the 120.15 areas into the close.
- AUD: A limited day for the Oz with early movement controlled given the CNY interest rate changes over the weekend, the market initially tested the 0.7930 levels however, strong AUDJPY carry trade selling off the 95.00 levels sent the Oz down to the lows just below 0.7880 before running out of steam and although the market in the carry again tested the 95.00 levels the level held through the day, the Oz was reasonably quiet over the remainder of the session with that early play defining the range for the day and the market ranging between 0.7920-0.7890 for the remainder of the day and a quiet close at the bottom of the range.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Apr A 3 | P 3
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target A 375B | C 375B | P 375B
Good Luck,
Andy
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