Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 119.862 | EURUSD 1.12137 | AUDUSD 0.79757 | NZDUSD 0.73699 | USDCAD 1.20174 | USDCHF 0.92936 | GBPUSD 1.5671 |
Â
Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 120.10 | 119.70
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1254 | 1.1209
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 135.395 | 134.34
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8011 | 0.7950
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7422 | 0.7318
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2021 | 1.1999
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0430 | 1.04195
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9298 | 0.92695
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5688 | 1.5660
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7173 | 0.71555
For today
- EUR: Euro’s lacklustre start to the day is nothing new however, once the market moved into the Tokyo session pushing steadily off the 1.1220 levels and rising through the session to the current levels above the 1.1250 areas with little resistance on the day having cleared the area yesterday. Topside offers into the 1.1280-1.1300 areas are likely to be light with stronger offers from the 1.1350 levels onwards and into the 1.1400 area even a push through this level sees strong offers and very little in the way of stops until a push through the 1.1450 areas from the highs in February. Downside bids are likely to be strongest at the moment into the 1.1220-1.1200 areas and a move through the 1.1180 areas will see light stops however, there is a plethora or numbers today which could be interesting and a push through will again opening a test into 1.1150 areas and ultimately into a lightly bid 1.1100 opening up a deeper move down. Greece remains at the forefront however, the market is becoming a little inured to the news one way or the other.
- GBP: Cable drifted through the Asian session with no clear definition opening around the 1.5670 areas the market stayed in a 1.5660-80 range for the most part and only pushed through the topside late into the session however, this was more a consequence of a stronger Euro rally than any direct movement with the EURGBP cross rising steadily from the opening 0.7155 areas to push into the 0.7175 level, for the moment Cable looks to be struggling against the 1.5690 levels as we move to London with the Topside offers firmly in the area and into the congestive area from the later part of last year into the 1.5750 levels, possible stops through the 1.5710 areas however, offers likely to increase into the 1.5750 area before the 1.5800 level opens and probably stronger stops through the level and opening the market to a move to the 1.60-62 range. Downside is likely to see light bids into the 1.5650 areas before giving way to a test of the 1.5600 level, a push through here opens up a return to the 1.5450 level with very little interest likely having seen such a quick and strong move however, and this would be down to the numbers released today.
- JPY: USDJPY remains caught for the moment between a rock and a hard place with the market unable to breakout of the 119.50-120.30 levels with any conviction and today was no different with the market dipping on fixing supply to below 119.75 before steadily recovering over the session with strong EURJPY buying pushing the USDJPY back to 119.95 before slipping back to hold around the opening levels. Topside offers through the 120.20 level with limited stops possibly above the 120.30 area and then a return to strong offers moving into the 120.50 areas and then continual to 121.00, the market still talks of a stronger move to the 124.00 however, with US data uninspiring the Q3 is a distant point in time. Downside bids into the 119.50 levels could possibly see weak stops through the level before reaching the next set of buyers around 119.00, only a push through the 118.50 area with conviction will open up the downside however, the yield buyers will likely appear on a move to those levels.
- AUD: Yesterday’s gains looked like being replicated in early trading with Iron ore production in China likely to shrink further as cheap imports and faltering demand bite into the market, of course this would be a boon for the Oz who’s miners are in the same situation to some degree, the Oz again pushed through the 80 cent levels in early Tokyo but was unable to capitalize on the move and drifted back to trade around the opening levels and just above into the London session. Topside offers into the 0.8050 levels will likely give way to stops and only limited congestion to the topside however, a push through the 81 cent level will see the offers reappear and only through the 0.8230-40 area will the market find new impetus and the ability to move into ranges seen and the end of last year. Downside bids light through the 0.7950-40 areas with probably a stronger collection into the 0.7900-0.7880 levels before opening to a test to 78 cents.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
CNY:
China Industrial Output Accelerates in April, Investment Slows
China Jan.-April Property Development Investment Rises 6% Y/y
China Sets Sept. 3 Holiday to Mark Anniversary of Japan’s Defeat
JPY:
Japan’s Current-Account Surplus Widens to Biggest Since 2008
NZD:
RBNZ’s Wheeler Says N.Z. Dollar Level Unsustainable, Unjustified
Wheeler Says Long Dairy Slump Would Be Worry for Economy
RBNZ Plans Lending Curbs on Auckland Housing From October 1
AUD:
Australian Wage Index Posts Smallest Annual Rise on Record
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Mar A 2.07T | C 1.34T | P 0.60T | R 0.61T
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wage Cost Index Q/Q Q1 A 0.50% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey: Current Apr A 53.6 | C 52.1 | P 52.2
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Apr A 10.00% | C 10.40% | P 10.20%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Apr A 5.90% | C 5.80% | P 5.60%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Apr A 12.00% | C 13.50% | P 13.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 0.10%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) C 0.50% | P 0.70%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Apr (F) C -0.10% | P -0.10%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Apr (F) P 0.40%
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italian GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) C 0.20% | P 0.00%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Apr C -20.1K | P -20.7K
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Apr P 2.30%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Mar C 5.50% | P 5.60%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Mar C 0.10% | P 1.10%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 (A) C 0.50% | P 0.30%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Inflation Report
11:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Apr C 0.30% | P 0.90%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Apr C 0.40% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Apr C 0.30% | P -0.30%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Mar C 0.20% | P 0.30%
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -3.9M
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: With Greece meeting another repayment the pressure on the Euro drifted away and although Asia were early sellers taking the market from the 1.1155 areas down into the 1.1130’s this was reversed in mid-session and moved in a quicker fashion to above the 1.1165 levels before running out of steam, the move into the grey hours saw quick buying from East Europeans and the market ticked quickly to the 1.1190 levels and into the London session. Strong buying in EURGBP before the UK numbers saw the Euro rise quickly pushing through the 1.1200 levels and to the 1.1230 level even after the UK numbers the Euro continued to gain through the session against most currencies except the GBP and pushed into mid-morning in London just short of the 1.1280 areas, the market drifted lower from there into the NYK session and tested into the 1.1230 levels before again seeing a stab to the topside, again the market failed to gain enough traction and then drifted through the remainder of the session to fall back to the 1.1215 areas for the close.
- GBP: Cable traded very quietly through the Asian session moving around the 1.5580 levels before seeing EURGBP buying enter the market as we ran into the London session from this the low was set just through the 1.5560 levels with expectations in some quarters of poor results for the Production numbers, needless to say they were wrong with strong results in both IP and Manufacturing sending the GBP higher, EURGBP buying early had taken the cross from the lows around the 0.7150 in ever increasing push and topped out around the 0.7225 areas before dropping back far quicker to 0.7160 and eventually back to the opening levels just below there. Cable ran quickly to the 1.5640 level before running into some light offers however, the market had the bit between the teeth and pushed through the offers to touch into the 1.5700 areas in the lead up to NYK, although the market drifted for a period the NYK market saw further attempts to push through the level before slowly drifting back to settle around the 1.5670 area.
- JPY: USDJPY was reasonably steady throughout the session pushing slowly to just above the 120.25 levels through the Asian session and into the grey hours, the quick movements in both the Euro and GBP pushed the USDJPY down to below the 120.00 level as profit taking in JPY crosses tempered there moves and the market moved into the reasonable bids around the 119.80 levels, early NYK saw the market recover to the opening 120.15 areas however, the market was more focused on the Cable movement and again as USD came under pressure the USDJPY drifted again testing into those supportive areas to the close.
- AUD: The Oz rose steadily over the Asian session with budget expectations underpinning the market, pushing from the opening 0.7890 levels to test the supply around the 0.7990-0.8000 levels through into mid London session, profit taking and sellers moved into the market briefly in NYK and although the market tested to the 0.7950 level it steadily recovered through to a quiet close and a brief test to 80 cents.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Apr A -2.40% | P 3.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans Mar A 1.60% | C 1.10% | P 1.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Mar (P) A 105.5 | C 105.5 | P 104.8
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Mar A 0.50% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Mar A 0.70% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Mar A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Mar A 1.10% | C 1.00% | P 1.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Apr A 0.40% | P 0.60% | R 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Monthly Budget Statement Apr A $156.7B | C $151.5B | P $106.9B
Good Luck,
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.