Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 124.229 | EURUSD 1.12748 | AUDUSD 0.77864 | NZDUSD 0.7137 | USDCAD 1.24516 | USDCHF 0.93391 | GBPUSD 1.53394 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.575 | 124.205
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1275 | 1.1253
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 140.37 | 139.94
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7787 | 0.7708
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7163 | 0.7126
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2468 | 1.2447
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0533 | 1.0520
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.93515 | 0.9338
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5341 | 1.5318
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7353 | 0.7344
For today
- EUR: The market traded in a very narrow range dipping from the mid 1.1275 levels to just below 1.1260 before recovering and heading towards the London session holding onto the opening levels. Topside offers are likely to be lighter than usual through the 1.1300 areas and a push through will open up a test of the 1.1350 levels and stronger offers appearing from then on as the market moves to the highs of last month with offers increasing into the 1.1450. Downside bids light into the 1.1200 levels with some congestion through to the 1.1100 areas however, once through the level the downside is open for a retest of the 1.0900 areas.
- GBP: Cable struggled through the session to hold the opening levels, drifting to below the 1.5320’s and then holding the 1.5330 for the best part of the session. Topside offers increase into the 1.5370-1.5400 areas and have dominated the Cable over the past few days, with the EURGBP seeing increasing movement and GBP losing ground as the Euro dominates the European markets. A push through the 1.5400 levels will again open the topside and a test to the 1.5500 areas. Downside bids limited into the 1.5300 levels and a push through that level will open up fresh tests to the lows this week into the 1.5200, possible weak stops through the area will eventually see light congestion into the 1.5150-1.5100 level.
- JPY: A quiet session with the USDJPY only making limited gains from the opening around the 1.2425 areas, moving steadily higher, increasing a little once the Oz retail sales were released to post highs just short of the 124.60 level before holding and drifting around the 124.50 levels. Topside offers likely strong into the 125.00-20 areas with stops likely through the 125.30 levels and the market opening for a test into the 126.00 levels with suspected stronger offers. Downside bids into the 124.00-123.80 levels and congestion below there and likely into the 123.50 areas a push through the levels will likely see stronger stops and the market possibly testing 123.00 quickly and opening up the ranges below 122.00.
- AUD: Oz drifted from the opening dipping from the 0.7785 areas and down to 0.7770 for the move into the Tokyo session, the release of worse than expected retail sales and a revision as well saw the Oz dropping back to the 0.7710 levels in a quick move with only a slight bounce to the 0.7735 levels where the market holds in a move to the London session. Topside offers into the 0.7820 levels with the market needing to push through the 0.7850 levels to open the topside with stops likely through the level and in the long term opening a fresh attempt above the 80 cent levels. Downside bids light into the 77 cent levels with the market opening only slightly on a move through and bids beginning to increase the lower the market goes centring around the 0.7650/0.7600 levels in particular and then the lows around the 0.7550 area.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
AUD:
Retail sales showed declines and suggests limited growth
Australian trade balance widened to the largest deficit on record.
EUR:
Greek crisis talks end without a breakthrough
Greece still rejects some of the creditor’s proposals
USD:
US economy grew in April-May after Q1 stall: Beige book
JPY:
Kuroda urges vigilance on spill overs of diverging Fed, ECB, BoJ policies
CNY:
China may free up bank deposit rates soon. CB official
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
1:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Apr A -3.89B | C -2.11B | P -1.32B | R -1.23B
1:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Apr A 0.00% | C 0.30% | P 0.30% | R 0.20%
8:10Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Markit Eurozone Retail PMI May P 49.5
11:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision C 0.50% | P 0.50%
11:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target C 375B | P 375B
11:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y May P 52.80%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Non-Farm Productivity Q1 (F) C -2.90% | P -1.90%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q1 (F) C 6.00% | P 5.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 30) C 277K | P 282K
14:00Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI May P 58.2
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: Euro’s made slight gains over the course of the Asian session moving from the opening 1.1150 levels the market dipped into the 1.1140 area before moving up as the Oz rose and USD came under pressure, the market continued to rise into the London session pushing into the 1.1190 area before dipping back after the release of the early PMI numbers sending the market back to sub 1.1150 levels trading back to just above the 1.1100 areas and then into the early NYK session to just below with the help of ADP figures in the US. A weak ISM number saw a quick reaction in the market and the Euro was quickly through the 1.1200 level triggering gamma (option) related stops through the level to push to the 1.1260 levels, a slower ascent from there to 1.1280’s and resistance capped the market and then a close not too far away from the highs.
- GBP: Cable moved from the 1.5340 opening areas and pushed steadily through the Asian session to 1.5375 areas before dipping back to the opening areas into early London. The release of the Services PMI saw the market drop quickly to the 1.5260 levels before holding the level and trading tightly to the 1.5300 level, poor ISM numbers reversed the move for Cable and the market again pushed to the opening levels, GBP lost ground against the Euro and the EURGBP cross moved from the 0.7280 levels to push above the 0.7350 levels as the Euro moved through the 1.1200 with conviction as option related buying in the Euro hit.
- JPY: USDJPY eased back through the Asian session having failed to move above the 124.20 levels and dropping back as the Oz GDP figures came in stronger. The market tested into the downside support around the 123.90 levels and the market although pushing slightly higher moved down into the grey hours to again test the 123.80 levels before rallying steadily higher through into the NYK session pushing to just below the 124.70’s, the release of the ISM numbers in the US sent the market dropping back into the opening levels and eventually pushed to the 124.40’s before drifting a little lower into the close.
- AUD: The Oz saw good buying on the release of the GDP numbers however, although the market pushed through the 78 cent level it remained trapped in a fairly narrow range considering the GDP number and the latter ISM numbers in the US, ranging from the 0.7760 levels and to just below the 0.7820 level.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y May A -1.90% | P -1.90%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 A 0.90% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI May A 52.5 | C 52.6 | P 53.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI May (F) A 53.8 | C 53.3 | P 53.3
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI May A 56.5 | C 59.2 | P 59.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Apr A 11.10% | C 11.20% | P 11.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Apr A 0.70% | C 0.60% | P -0.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision A 0.05% | C 0.05% | P 0.05%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change May A 201K | C 190K | P 169K | R 165K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Apr A -3.0B | C -1.95B | P -3.02B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Apr A -40.9B | C -$43.2B | P -$51.4B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite May A 55.7 | C 56.9 | P 57.8
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -1.9M | C -1.9M | P -2.8M
Good Luck,
Andy
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