Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 124.364 | EURUSD 1.12382 | AUDUSD 0.7688 | NZDUSD 0.71251 | USDCAD 1.25009 | USDCHF 0.93357 | GBPUSD 1.53657 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.57 | 124.36
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1241 | 1.1180
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 139.715 | 139.16
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7707 | 0.7672
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7144 | 0.7107
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2508 | 1.2488
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0489 | 1.0467
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9363 | 0.93345
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5370 | 1.5351
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7317 | 0.72815
For today
- EUR: Strong selling from the opening after news that Tsipras again openly kicked back the proposals from the Eurogroup saw the Euro dropping from the opening around the 1.1240 levels to 1.1180 area into the Tokyo opening with early Japanese also joining the move as they flattened positions in the Euro for the weekend and todays NFP numbers, the market eventually found some support and moved back above 1.1200 over the course of the session and has managed to reduce the losses to 20 pips on the day as the market heads towards the London session. Light offers into the 1.1300 levels and then growing in size as the market again moves towards the 1.1400 levels, those offers are likely to continue through the level and only a break through the 1.1460 is likely to see weak stops and a test to the 1.1500 level is then open. Downside bids light into the 1.1150 areas with the market quickly opening for a deeper move with very little support until light bids from the 1.1050 areas start to appear and better into 1.1000 but only just and then exposing the 1.09 handle again. However, this is all likely to be at the mercy of NFP numbers later in the day and possibly a quiet period unless Euro/Greece has more to add.
- GBP: Cable remained in a tight range moving around the opening 1.5360 before steadily rising to the 1.5370 levels. Topside offers are likely to again appear on a move to the 1.5400 levels and become stronger into the 1.5450 levels before weak stops appear, a push through the level will open up a possible quick move to the 1.5500 levels and light offers before the topside is open for a retest higher towards and through the 1.5600 levels. Downside bids into the 1.5300 levels are likely to be mixed with those bids dominating through the level with slightly better interest likely around the 1.5250 areas and into the 1.5200.
- JPY: Opening around the 124.40 levels the market has been stuck in a tired range with the market testing towards the 124.60 levels but for the most part trading in the 124.40-50 areas, position covering has dominated the day with retail Asian traders covering positions for the weekend and concerns with the Greek situation focusing their minds for the weekend. Topside offers still dominate on any move towards the 125.00 levels and only a strong push through the 125.30-40 areas is likely to see stops appear, from there the 126.00 is like the 125.00 level likely to see option interest first defending and if it were to break stops appearing. Downside bids are down into the 123.80 levels with those bids likely to extend into the 123.50 albeit a little lighter with weak stops likely through the level will see the 123.00 areas likely tested quickly and the market open for a move back below 122.00.
- AUD: The Oz has been particularly quiet given the flows over the course of the week, moving from the 0.7690 levels the market initially traded down towards the 0.7670 levels before moving into the Tokyo session and starting a steady rise back above 77 cents however, the market saw most of the flow in short covering with the weekend so close and risk from both Euro and NFP to contend with during their night. Topside offers into the 0.7710 levels likely to be weak and opening the market for a move to the 0.7760 levels and another level of light offers begin until the market hits the 78 cent level and stronger offers to 0.7820 a push through the level is likely to see weak stops and the market probing the 0.7850 levels and possibly stronger offers. Downside bids from the 0.7670 level with a mixture of strength appearing all the way down through strong 0.7600 levels and towards the 0.7550 major support areas.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
EUR:
Greece’s Tsipras said extreme proposals unacceptable
Merkel says she will keep working to keep Greece in Euro
Tsipras, Merkel and Hollande call constructive
Tsipras says creditors plans can’t be basis for deal
ECB’s Dombret says any contagion from Grexit would be manageable
Dombret Greece solution should be found sooner, not later
GBP:
Pace of UK hiring slows in May: REC recruiters group
IMF:
IMF warns US Fed should delay rate hike until 2016
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Apr (P) A 107.2 | C 107.3 | P 106
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders s.a. M/M Apr C 0.60% | P 0.90%
07:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves May A | P 521.9B
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) C 0.40% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls May C 218K | P 223K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate May C 5.40% | P 5.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment May C 10.2K | P -19.7K
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate May C 6.80% | P 6.80%
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: The market traded quietly through the Asian session moving from the opening 1.1275 areas and drifting down through the 1.1260’s before moving back into the opening areas into the London session, early Europeans were quick sellers however, the downside at the time was covered as the ever expectant market figures the Eurogroup and Greeks will eventually come to some agreement, a good Eurozone PMI number and expectations sent the market quickly higher to touch into the 1.1380’s before holding around the 1.1360 area into the NYK session. NYK listened closely to the byplay and a mixed set of numbers saw the USD claw back some of the losses and the market settled back into the opening areas, with London long gone the market slipped through the opening as the market moved to the closing period and finished the day around the 1.1240 areas.
- GBP: From the quiet Asian market where the Cable moved around the 1.5320-30 levels and dipping into the London session to below 1.5310, before hitching a ride with the rising Euro and pushing quickly to the 1.5400 areas. The market stalled for a short period and then a break through the 1.5420 level saw weak stops triggered and a top just above the 1.5440 level before starting a steady drift, while the market drifted from that point the GBP gained against the Euro with the EURGBP cross moving off the highs above the 0.7380 levels to push down into the close around the 0.7310 levels. Cable drifted down to the 1.5350-60 areas and then held in the area with only one movement to the topside weakly failing the 1.5400 areas before closing around the 1.5350-60 levels.
- JPY: While the market initially tested to the topside pushing from the 124.30 to test above the 124.55 level before running out of steam, the early strong Euro into the London session sent the USD lower and the USDJPY in particular dipped through to the support areas around the 123.80 as strong EURJPY selling emerged in the market as the cross pushed to the 141.00 levels and although the two trading was active the Euro eventually gave ground and USDJPY started to rise again in a limited fashion, USDJPY eventually topped out just short of the 124.70 areas with the EURJPY market having a decent 150 pip range over the session.
- AUD: The market drifted from the opening 0.7785 areas and moved into the Tokyo session only slightly lower, the release of weaker than expected retail sales caused the market to drop back quickly into the 0.7710 areas before spending much of the Asian session moving back to the 0.7730’s, London were quick buyers and the market spiked to the 0.7760 areas as the market dispelled some of the worries about the numbers however, the move into the NYK session saw the Oz drop back quickly trading down through the 77 cent level stalling initially before continuing the move down to test the 0.7670 levels before quietly holding into the close and only a slight rise.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Apr A -3.89B | C -2.11B | P -1.32B | R -1.23B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Apr A 0.00% | C 0.30% | P 0.30% | R 0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Markit Eurozone Retail PMI May A 51.4 | P 49.5
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target A 375B | C 375B | P 375B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y May A -22.50% | P 52.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Non-Farm Productivity Q1 (F) A -3.10% | C -2.90% | P -1.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q1 (F) A 6.70% | C 6.00% | P 5.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 30) A 276K | C 277K | P 282K | R 284K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI May A 62.3 | C 55.1 | P 58.2
Good Luck,
Andy
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