Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 124.504 | EURUSD 1.12918 | AUDUSD 0.77016 | NZDUSD 0.71428 | USDCAD 1.24102 | USDCHF 0.92732 | GBPUSD 1.53492 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.74 | 124.39
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1343 | 1.1273
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 141.025 | 140.53
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7723 | 0.7679
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7144 | 0.7106
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2419 | 1.2386
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.04895 | 1.0462
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9283 | 0.9254
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5363 | 1.5333
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7377 | 0.7351
For today
- EUR: A slow drift from the closing close to the 1.1300 areas taking the market back through the 1.1280 levels before finding interest on the buy side and a steady move back to the 1.1300 levels, a push through the levels saw weak stops triggered and a quick move to test towards the 1.1340 levels, having moved to that level the market then spend the session trading around the 1.1320 areas slipping a little as the market heads towards the London session. Topside offers into the 1.1350 level and increasing towards 1.1380-1.1400 levels, a push through the 1.1420 levels is likely to be troublesome however, it does open the market for a test higher if it can continue rising to 1.1480. Downside bids are likely into the 1.1280 levels with a push through the 1.1260 level opens some light stops and the market open for a move back to the 1.1100 levels and stronger bids. No numbers really for the day and Euro’s likely to be dominated by Greece.
- GBP: Cable saw early selling into the Tokyo session, dropping from the 1.5360 levels to below the 1.5340 areas saw the market react to the stop run in the Euro to return to the opening levels. EURGBP cross trading saw the GBP lose ground again as the market moved off the 0.7350 levels to test towards the offers into 0.7380 levels. Topside offers from the current levels sees the market opening for a test above the 1.5400 level with light offers then appearing on the move towards 1.5450 a strong push through the levels opens up a stronger offering into 1.5500, likely stops begin to appear through this level and opens up a stronger move to the topside over a longer term. Downside bids light into the 1.5300 levels with the market increasing into the 1.5250 levels and while there are likely stops through the level the market could possibly stronger bids into 1.5200 and through to 1.5150 levels.
- JPY: USDJPY opened around the 124.50 and has since tested to above the 124.70 levels in the run into the Tokyo session and through to the end of the Tokyo fix, once the supply was over with the market drifted back to the opening levels slipping a little through to trade into the 124.40 level and then holding just above the opening levels. Topside offers light into the 124.80 areas and then increasing to the 125.00 level however, a move through the level is likely to attract further selling if there is nothing from the US to influence the USD with only whole sale inventories, a push through the 125.50 levels is likely to see stronger offers in a move to the 126.00 levels and probably option interest in the area. Downside bids into the 124.00 areas and one could possibly suspect the ranges from last week could be dominating the USDJPY. However a push through the 123.50 levels is likely to see weak stops through the level and then light interest into the 123.00 levels.
- AUD: The market drifted from the opening in the Oz moving from the 77 cent levels and down through into the Tokyo session testing the 0.7680 levels before recovering on a better NAB number triggering light stops through the 0.7710 levels and then dipping again to 77 cent with another period of weakening as the market heads towards the London session. Topside offers likely to be limited until the 0.7750 areas and then increasing as the market moves to the 78 cent level and strong offers appear, a move through the 0.7850 level opens up further gains. Downside has limited support until the 0.7650 levels and then the bids begin to kick in gradually increasing as the market moves to the 76 cent level, even pushing through the level the bids are likely to be solid all the way down however, as much as there is on the bid is likely to increase weak stops on a break through the 75 cent level so potential for a strong move lower.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
JPY:
Japan’s Amari Says It’s Important That FX Moves Aren’t Abrupt
Japan’s GPIF to Reach New Asset Goal in Year or Two, Ito Says
Japan Govt. Plans to Delay Passage of Security Bills: Mainichi
CNY:
China May Consumer Prices Rise 1.2% Y/y; Est. 1.3% Gain
Shanghai FTZ Starts Cross-Border Investment-Type Forex Pool
EUR:
Noyer: Greece Strain Won’t Influence Euro as Global Currency
AUD:
Australia April Home-Loan Approvals Rose 1% M/M; Est. 2% Fall
NZD:
English Says N.Z. Surplus This Year Will Be a ‘Close Run Thing’
N.Z. Manufacturing Curbed by Meat, Dairy, Metal Products
N.Z. Ministry Sees 2014-15 Primary Export Sales Down 8% Y/Y
GBP:
U.K. LFL May Retail Sales Unchanged Y/y, BRC Says
HSBC Aims $4.5b-$5b Annual Savings; Turkey/Brazil Ops Sale
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Activity Q1 -2.80% A -0.70% | P -1.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y May A 0.00% | P -2.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y May A 4.00% | C 3.60% | P 3.60%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence May A 7 | P 3
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y May A 1.20% | C 1.30% | P 1.50%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y May A -4.50% | C -4.50% | P -4.60%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans Apr A 1.00% | C -1.80% | P 1.60% | P 1.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence May A 41.4 | C 41.9 | P 41.5
05:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate May C 3.30% | P 3.30%
06:00Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Tool Orders Y/Y May (P) P 10.50%
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M May C 0.10% | P -0.20%
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y May C -1.30% | P -1.10%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) Apr C -10.0B | P -10.1B
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Apr C 0.10% | P 0.10%
Harry Hindsight                  Â
- EUR: The move through the Asian session was quiet moving from the opening 1.1110 area to touch lower and through the figure into the 1.1090 levels before recovering and pushing quietly to above the 1.1120 levels, the grey hours saw a brief attempt at putting the Euro back below the figure before the open saw strong buying and a quick push above the 1.1160 levels having seen a strong IP number in Germany, with bunds again showing gains in yields the Euro saw related buying from the opening but the market slipped back eventually into mid-morning. With the euphoria over and the market finding itself less inclined to buy USD’s with the NFP likely for the moment to be less influential than initial thoughts the Euro started a steady and determined climb back to the 1.1300 levels into the closing period.
- GBP: As with the Euro the market in Cable was quiet during the Asian session drifting around the 1.5270 levels dipping just below the 1.5260 before returning to the tight range. The move into London saw Cable move higher to touch just above the 1.5300 levels before drifting back again to push through the Asian range and into the 1.5220 areas and pressure from a rising EURGBP cross from the previously static 0.7270 areas to gradually move higher and push to a close above the 0.7360 levels. Cable in the meantime moved off the lows as the Euro dragged it higher taking the Cable back to the 1.5300 levels for a second and eventually breaking on the third attempt to push through triggering weak stops to 1.5320 and a then steady rise to above 1.5360.
- JPY: USDJPY drifted through Asia with selling to the topside through 125.80 scaring the market in a quiet session, selling of cross/JPY again made a limited impact in early trading and the USDJPY drifted down from the 125.60-70 areas to hold around the 125.30 levels before slowly moving back to the opening levels into the grey hour before London. French comments on what he thinks Obama thinks sent the market lower however, the view was over simplistic and the White House and Obama himself saying that the comments were taken out of context however, USDJPY quickly moved to the 125.00 levels before recovering from the London opening and over the next hour to 125.50, having made it there the market then slipped over the course of the day pushing again at the 125.00 area. London close and the support disappeared and the descent increased pushing through with weak stops triggered along the way to the 124.30 level before finding sufficient support to hold the market before the close.
- AUD: A quiet Asian session with one spike higher on the CNY Trade balance number was the highlight of the session for the Oz opening around the 0.7620 area and unable to test the 76 cent level the market drifted gradually closer, the move into the London session saw the quick day traders move in and the market lifted to the 0.7650 levels and a struggle over the London session with that level, and only once the London boys moved out did the market break out and push through triggering light stops through 0.7660 areas and touching above 0.7680 areas before again renewing a steady rise to the 0.7710 levels in the final hours.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Apr A 1.27T | C 1.45T | P 2.07T
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 (F) A 1.00% | C 0.70% | P 0.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q1 (F) A 3.40% | C 3.40% | P 3.40%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance May A $59.50B | C $47.00B | P $34.13B
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey: Current May A 53.3 | C 54.2 | P 53.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Apr A 0.90% | C 0.60% | P -0.50% | R -0.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance (EUR) Apr A 22.3B | C 18.1B | P 19.3B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Jun A 17.1 | C 18.9 | P 19.6
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts May A 202K | C 187K | P 181.8K | R 183K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Apr A 11.60% | C 3.40% | P 11.60%
Good Luck,
Andy
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