Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 123.361 | EURUSD 1.12487 | AUDUSD 0.77525 | NZDUSD 0.69862 | USDCAD 1.22923 | USDCHF 0.93224 | GBPUSD 1.56487 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 123.495 | 123.37
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1267 | 1.1239
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 139.05 | 138.74
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7757 | 0.7715
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.6994 | 0.6965
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2300 | 1.2284
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0486 | 1.0475
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9326 | 0.9306
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5653 | 1.5632
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7200 | 0.7187
For today
EUR: A quiet start as you’d expect on an FOMC meeting with the market dipping from the opening 1.1250 levels into the 1.1240 area before starting to rally again as the market moved through the early parts of the Tokyo session, EURJPY buying was steady through the last few hours and the Euro pushed into the 1.1265 area before starting to drift again towards the grey hours. Topside offers again weak into the 1.1300 levels and becoming stronger from the 1.1320 areas however, weak stops are likely to make an appearance through the level and open the topside for a test into the 1.1380 levels and through to 1.1410 area. Downside bids light through to the 1.1220-00 levels with those bids likely to extend to the 1.1180 areas, a push through the level will open the downside to 1.1100 a break through this level is likely to open up a deeper move into the 1.1000 areas.
GBP: A very quiet session for the Cable with the market dipping from the 1.5650 levels down to trade around the 1.5640 areas for much of the session, dipping only once through into the low 1.5630’s as EURGBP buying entered the market in midsession and pushing back above the 0.7200 levels from the opening just above the 0.7165 level. Topside offers continue around the 1.5650 levels however, with employment numbers neither the topside or downside are particularly strong, a push above the 1.5660 areas may see some light stops however, the market is likely for the moment continue to struggle to the 1.5700 levels with better offers likely, a break through the level opens up a renewed test to the 1.5800 highs from May, downside bids are very light down into the 1.5500 areas with the best of the bids just in front of the level however, there is nothing to suggest anything particularly strong and a push through the level will see only a continuation of light bids to the 1.5400 areas.
JPY: A steady rise for the USDJPY with cross/JPY buying more predominate with EURJPY in particular rising steadily, moving the USDJPY from the opening just above the 123.35 levels to just below the 123.50 area over the course of the session in what was the normal quiet pre-FOMC session. Topside offers into the 123.80 area and probably continuing slight through the 124.00 level before weak stops possibly make an appearance from there onwards though the market is likely to find successive levels of supply in particular into the 124.50 areas and then again towards the 124.80 areas, a push through here opens up another move to test the 126.00 level, a step to far? Who knows what Kuroda really means? Downside bids light through the 123.00 level and increasing into the 122.50 level however, a break through this level opens up the possibility of a quick move lower with the 121.50 areas likely to show the first line of stronger support and further downside potential to the April/May ranges around the 120.00 areas.
AUD: The Oz opened around the 0.7750-55 area and moved into the Tokyo session holding its own before AUDJPY carry trade longs started to cover their positions, with the FOMC to come and the falling prices of rebar and iron ore continuing to weigh on sentiment for the Oz the market dipped slowly lower to push through the 0.7720 levels into the later part of the session, the market held the levels and is moving quietly into the London session holding the light supportive areas, downside bids are not likely to be too strong until the market starts to test the 0.7650 areas and from that point on the market is likely to be very strong however, a strong FOMC commentary could see those bids melt away exposing the downside. Topside offers into the 78 cent level still hold with a possibility of weak stops on a push through although one would suspect those offers are likely to continue until the market breaks the 0.7850 level and an opening for a fresh test higher.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
JPY:
Japan May exports rise 2.4% YoY – MOF
Japan Seeks to End Corporate Tax System Based on Capital: Nikkei
Japan Lowers Voting Age to 18 in First Change for 70 Years
EUR:
France’s Sapin Says Greece Agreement Needed by June 30: Figaro
France’s Macron Says Greece Must Remain in Euro Area
Portugal Has Reserves to Face Any Financing Restrictions: Coelho
Euro’s Real Exchange Rate Climbs by Most Since 2012, Says BIS
CNY:
China Says Inclusion into SDR Important for Global Use of Yuan
China Banks Bought Net $1.3b of Forex for Clients in May: Wang
NZD:
N.Z. Current Account Deficit Widens as Exports Decline
NZ Productivity Commission Urges Better Use of Land for Housing
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
22:45Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance Q1 A 0.662B| C 0.282B | P -3.194B | R -3.170B
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (JPY) May A -0.18T | C -0.17T | P -0.21T | R -0.24T
00:30Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M May A -0.10% | P 0.10%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change May C -13.8K | P -12.6K
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate May C 2.20% | P 2.30%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Apr C 5.50% | P 5.50%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Minutes
08:30    GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
08:30    GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
09:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ZEW (Expectations) Jun P -0.1
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M May C 0.20% | P 0.20%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y May (F) C 0.30% | P 0.30%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y May (F) C 0.90% | P 0.90%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Sales M/M Apr C 0.30% | P 0.80%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -6.8M
18:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision C 0.25% | P 0.25%
Harry Hindsight                  Â
- EUR: A quiet session during the Asian hours, moving from the opening around the 1.1280 levels the market tested through the 1.1270 levels before recovering and then holding into the grey hours, early London were quick sellers on relevant news from Greece, which throughout the day dominated the session with mudslinging mostly from the Greek side and but not entirely, early buying of the EURGBP cross helped the Euro a little higher into the official London opening however, the market was quickly stopped in its tracks with only limited stop action through the 1.1320 levels and then a fall back as the rumours and counter suggestions were banded around the market. The market eventually dipped back through the opening levels and the EURGBP reversed its movements with worse than expected ZEW numbers to hold in the 1.1250-60 levels into NYK. The NYK session continued the selling and the market again pushed lower to test the 1.1210 areas to make the lows before spending a quiet session through NYK moving back to the 1.1250 levels for the close.
- GBP: A quiet Asian session as with the Euro saw the Cable continue to hold for the most part above the 1.5600 levels, the move into the London session saw the range increase into the official opening as the market chopped before the release of the inflationary data and strong EURGBP buying in the lead up with the cross moving off the 0.7225 levels to test above the 0.7250 areas, the release saw the EURGBP sold off steadily and increasing as the market moved towards the NYK session with the UK numbers hitting as expected with the headline number above the 0.0% mark of last month as the rising costs of oil start to seep into the market. Cable having stabbed lower from the number release, as if the consensus numbers being matched was not good enough saw a steady recovery from the 1.5545 level lows and the move into the NYK session saw the market testing again above the 1.5600 levels and holding for a good time in the 1.5620-30 levels before edging to the 1.5650 levels to hold to the close. EURGBP dipped down to the 0.7175 levels before rising a little into the close.
- JPY: The USDJPY opened around the 123.40 levels and early trading saw the market gradually push towards the 123.50 levels into early Tokyo before BoJ’s Kuroda attempted to redefine last weeks comments on the weakness of the Yen, the market had started to move lower in anticipation of a re-run of the comments however, his statement saw the USDJPY move quickly off the 123.30 lows to push quickly to the 123.80 levels before dropping back to 123.50-60 for the balance of the Asian session, London moved in as quick sellers and although the market dipped it could only manage the opening levels before moving back into the 123.50’s. US sellers started from the opening and whether you believe everyone misunderstood what he said last week it didn’t change the markets perceptions and the market returned to a quiet and uneventful session holding around those opening levels and all in all not a particularly busy day for the pair.
- AUD: Some slight chop during the session after the comments from Kuroda however, for the most part the Oz traded in line with the opening 0.7760 levels through to early London, light selling then started to kick in from cross buying against the Oz with the market edging down to the 0.7725 levels in the move through the London open and then a steady recovery as the market then headed into NYK, apart from those early Kuroda comments the market never looked like testing the 0.7780 levels again and although the rally from the 0.7725 was steady and tight it could only move to the 0.7770 levels before drifting for the rest of the day through the NYK session in a very quiet market.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M May (F) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y May (F) A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P 0.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M May A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y May A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P -0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y May A 0.90% | C 1.00% | P 0.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M May A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y May A 1.00% | C 1.10% | P 0.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input M/M May A -0.90% | C 0.60% | P 0.40% | R 1.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input Y/Y May A -12.00% | C -11.30% | P -11.70% | R -11.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output M/M May A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Y/Y May A -1.60% | C -1.60% | P -1.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core M/M May A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core Y/Y May A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q1 A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Jun A 62.9 | C 63 | P 65.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jun A 31.5 | C 37.3 | P 41.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jun A 53.7 | C 60.3 | P 61.2
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts May A 1.036M | C 1.10M | P 1.14M | R 1.165M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits May A 1.100M | C 1.11M | P 1.14M
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Apr A 12.94B | C 5.03B | P 22.50B | R 22.56B
Good Luck,
Andy
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