Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 122.951 | EURUSD 1.13628 | AUDUSD 0.78006 | NZDUSD 0.69259 | USDCAD 1.2224 | USDCHF 0.9214 | GBPUSD 1.58797 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 123.10 | 122.82
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1410 | 1.1353
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 140.005 | 139.78
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7815 | 0.7763
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.6938 | 0.6912
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2234 | 1.2216
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.05005 | 1.0463
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92205 | 0.9203
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5896 | 1.5876
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7177 | 0.7152
For today
- EUR: A quiet session for the most part with the market moving from the 1.1360 levels to quickly test to the 1.1400 before Tokyo as talk of an emergency ECB meeting was to be called as concerns that the Greek banks would not be able to open on Monday, the market failed the level and was quickly back to the 1.1380 areas before drifting into the Tokyo session moving towards the open, with the rumours not really finding any credence for the moment the market eventually saw light buying generating enough impact to take the market to the 1.1385 levels before again drifting off to the opening levels, the move towards the grey hours saw weak stops on the drop back below the 1.1370 levels however, the volume is light and everyone in Asia is probably looking forward to the end of the day. Topside offers, likely to continue from the 1.1420 areas and into the 1.1450 areas before the market is likely to see stops appearing from weak shorts and breakout traders, through the 1.1500 levels the market looks technically able to rise back through to the levels from the end of last year however, I’m neither a chartist or a believer of the Euro, downside bids are light through to the 1.1300 levels however, there is significant amount of clutter from there and to the 1.1200 levels with the 1.1220 level down possibly the strongest in the areas before the market can make any further move, a push through the 1.1150 areas is likely to see stronger stops as the market again tests the 1.1100 levels and a possible move to the lows of the month. However, this is all ongoing with the events in Europe and whether the Greeks will come baring gifts or the ECB?
- GBP: The Cable opened around the 1.5890 levels and although there was a slight flirtation with the topside the market has generally held around the opening levels throughout the session only dipping as the market moves towards the grey hours. Topside offers into the 1.5920 levels are likely to be longer term profit taking however, the 1.6000 level is now very much exposed in the short term and its likely to have a few option barriers around the level. Downside bids into the 1.5840 level are light and this weakness is likely to continue through to the 1.5700 areas at least with only moderate interest likely at the sentimental levels for a long way.
- JPY: The market has seen a little more range than some however, it was quiet from the opening 122.95 areas and moving into the Tokyo session pushing through the 123.00 levels to make the highs early in the session, since that point the market dipped a little lower before again steadily rising to the highs having seen the low 122.80’s. Topside offers into the 123.20 light at best with no real stops in the area and a free movement higher possible until a push to the 124.20 areas where offers are likely, even through that level the market is likely to see offers increasing with only light stops on a push through the 124.50 levels. Downside bids into the 122.60-50 areas with stops likely through those areas and a test to the 121.50 areas is likely, even then the market seems to be over extended for the moment with no concrete levels until much lower down. Monetary policy was left unchanged by the BoJ which was as expected and had no impact on the market.
- AUD: The Oz drifted lower with light AUDJPY selling moving in after an initial push by the Oz to just above the opening levels around the 0.7800 areas. Since that point the market has steadily dipped through the session and moves into the grey hours holding the 0.7765-75 levels. Topside offers into the 0.7840 levels are likely to see stops on a push through the 0.7850-60 areas and opens a test to the 79 cent levels, downside is as always very light from this point and into the 0.7650 levels where the strength is likely to continue over an overly large area due to option barriers likely in the 0.7500 level and the years lows around the 0.7530-50 area.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
JPY:
BOJ keeps upbeat view of economy, maintains asset purchases
Japan MOF to Appoint Asakawa as New Currency Head: Kyodo
NZD:
English Says RBNZ Needs to Hit Inflation Target, Kiwi May Drop
NZD/EUR:
Grexit Would Test Global System in Unknown Ways: NZ’s English
NZD:
New Zealand Social Housing Attractive to Investors, English Says
N.Z. Consumer Confidence Falls to 21-Month Low, ANZ Index Shows
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Apr A 0.10% | P -1.30%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI M/M May C 0.20% | P 0.10%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI Y/Y May C -1.10% | P -1.50%
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Apr C 18.1B | P 18.6B
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) May C 10.0B | P 6.0B
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M May C 0.50% | P -0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y May C 0.80% | P 0.80%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC CPI Core M/M May C 0.30% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC CPI Core Y/Y May C 2.10% | P 2.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Apr C 0.50% | P 0.70%
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Apr C 0.30% | P 0.50%
Harry Hindsight                  Â
- EUR: A reasonably quiet day overall with some volatility around the numbers, moving from the 1.1340 levels the market eased into the Tokyo session quietly and lifted from the opening to push above the 1.1360 level and testing the 1.1370 areas for several hours before pushing into the London session just short of the 1.1380 levels, grey hours selling was replaced with gradual buying into the London session with the market pushing quickly through 1.1380 and triggering weak stops through 1.1400 however, the 1.1420 levels proved something of a barrier from that point until the US data releases, CPI numbers saw another spike higher and although the market pushed through the offers around 1.1420 it was unable to move much beyond the 1.1430-40 levels and again moved back to trade the 1.1400-20 levels deep into the session. The breakdown of talks in Europe again left the market vulnerable to volatility and the market immediately spiked higher and then dropped from another test to the 1.1440 levels and back quickly to the 1.1340 areas before stabilizing for the run to the close in the 1.1360-80 areas.
- GBP: Cable did very little through the Asian session and struggled once the initial buying in Tokyo was over with, the market held for much of the session around the 1.5840 levels having touched through 1.5850 on a couple of occasions however the move into the grey hours saw the market back to just below the opening levels and testing towards the 1.5800 levels. A rebound in retail sales numbers to 0.20% again helped Cable move swiftly higher with a move to test above the 1.5900 levels with the market holding quietly through the early part of NYK around the 1.5920 levels, EURGBP was reasonably choppy through the session with Asia seeing the Euro make gains to the 0.7180 before relinquishing those gains in the move into London and the market basing of 0.7150 area, European FinMin meeting again saw very little headway in the Greek situation and the market saw a quick stab higher before collapsing back for the Euro, the EURGBP pushed quickly to 0.7200 before reversing and pushing back to the 0.7155 levels and then settling into the close around those areas. Cable did very little with the market being dragged a little lower with the movement lower of the Euro and the market drifted to the 1.5860 levels before regaining 1.5880 into the close.
- JPY: A slow day for the USDJPY with the market gradually moving from the highs around the 123.60 levels as the market saw strong EURJPY selling enter the market through the 140.00 levels, this put the USDJPY on the back foot taking the pressure and the market drifted through Asia to test below the 123.00 levels into the grey hours, London continued the selling and it was fairly sedate with the market eventually trading into the 122.60 levels and although it did attempt to move through the 122.50 levels the market moved off the area and rose slowly once the US numbers were out of way. The market then strolled along to the close finishing just short of the 123.00 levels having recovered a little post US numbers.
- AUD: As with the USDJPY, USD weakness translated into the Oz once the quiet Asian session was behind and out of the way with some carry trade selling of note, the Oz was unable to push below the 0.7720 levels with conviction and London were quick buyers and took the market steadily higher and triggering stops on the break through the 0.7800 areas to push to the 0.7840-50 levels before stalling and then drifting steadily lower once the European meeting break up.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 A 0.20% | C 0.60% | P 0.80% | R 0.70%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) May A 3.43B | C 2.86B | P 2.86B | R 2.66B
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate A -0.75% | C -0.75% | P -0.75%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Economic Bulletin
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M May A 0.20% | C -0.10% | P 1.20% | R 0.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M May A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y May A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P -0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M May A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y May A 1.70% | C 1.80% | P 1.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 13) A 267K | C 275K | P 279K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Survey Jun A 15.2 | C 8 | P 6.7
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators May A 0.70% | C 0.40% | P 0.70%
Good Luck,
Andy
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