Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 123.369 | EURUSD 1.1341 | AUDUSD 0.77283 | NZDUSD 0.68678 | USDCAD 1.23095 | USDCHF 0.92134 | GBPUSD 1.58245 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 123.79 | 123.35
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1347 | 1.1255
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 140.00 | 139.255
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7739 | 0.7695
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.6874 | 0.6836
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2345 | 1.2309
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.04565 | 1.04445
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92865 | 0.9211
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5831 | 1.5765
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7178 | 0.71415
For today
- EUR: Early trading was reasonably quiet and initially the market moved sideways moving towards the 1.1350 levels with news coming out of Europe of more consensuses between the two sides and growing euphoria of a deal close at hand. Whether the news took a while to filter through remains to be seen however, the market dropped through the 1.1320 levels with stops triggered on the move through the figure areas and a quick drop through to the 1.1260 areas before finding sufficient demand to hold the market in place. With optimism in the market over the meeting yesterday the markets yesterday possibly got over excited in the equity and bond areas however, the fact that the Greeks have been conciliatory after months of stalling and stonewalling brings the possibility of a deal more in focus. Topside offers weak through to the 1.1380 levels and through the 1.1410 levels however, given the move in Asia there is a slight possibility of weak stops on the move through the 1.1320-40 areas and a mini short squeeze could be possible, above the 1.1420 areas with momentum the market is likely to continue to struggle on a move towards the 1.1500 areas. Downside congestion from the 1.1260 levels is likely to give way on a break down through the 1.1180 levels and open up the 1.1100 as the strongest level on weak technical levels and 1.1000 being the strongest downside levels.
- GBP: A quiet move into the Tokyo session with the market moving in the 1.5820-30 levels before a spike in EURGBP to the 0.7180 from 0.7165 was quickly erased with strong selling in the moved in with the market quickly dropping to the 0.7140 levels. Cable dipped to the 1.5770-80 areas and ranged for the remainder of the session in those areas. Topside light offers into the 1.5830-40 areas with a push through the 1.5850 areas are likely to see weak stops appear and then into the 1.5900 areas and stronger offers, through the 1.5940-50 areas the market again opens a little to the next figure areas and possible option barriers around 1.6000. Downside bids into the 1.5750 areas are likely to be light and the market is likely to see similar bids into the 1.5700 areas before finding a stronger level on a move through the level.
- JPY: The market moved around the 123.40 levels from the opening and only picked up as the Euro moved lower with the USDJPY heading steadily to above the 123.70 levels before stalling and holding in the area for several hours. Topside offers into the 123.80-1.2400 levels are likely for the moment to slow a further ascent however, even through the level the market is likely to see light offerings continue and those offers building into the 125.00 areas. Downside bids light back to the 123.00 areas before the bids strengthen down through the 122.80 levels and into the 122.60 areas, a push through the 122.50 areas may see stops triggering and an opening to the 121.50 levels and possible weak bids and a deeper opening to the downside. Topside light offers into the 1.5830-40 areas with a push through the 1.5850 areas are likely to see weak stops appear and then into the 1.5900 areas and stronger offers, through the 1.5940-50 areas the market again opens a little to the next figure areas and possible option barriers around 1.6000. Downside bids
- AUD: The Oz made early but slight gains moving from the 0.7730 levels and trading towards the 0.7740 areas before the market in Euro’s broke lower triggering strong USD buying across the majors and taking the Oz quickly to the 0.7710 levels before steadily pushing through the 77 cent areas, although the market dipped through the market was unable to continue on its downward trend and held the levels into the grey hours. Light offers are likely to reappear through the 0.7730 areas before weak stops push through the 0.7750 areas, and then stronger offers to the 78 cent level and beyond with strong offers around the 0.7840-60 areas. Downside bids don’t really change with bids strengthening into the 0.7650 level and then increasing further as the market moves towards the 76 cent and 0.7550 areas and the years lows, through that level then the chances of option barriers into 75 cents.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
EUR: Greece Is Moving Closer to a Deal, Government Spokesman Says
Tsipras Says Proposals Will Spare Wage Earners, Pensioners
JPY:
Japan Cabinet Approval Rating Drops to 39% From 45%: Asahi
Markit/JMMA Japan June Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs 50.9 in May
JPY/USD:
Okinawa Governor Calls for Stop to U.S. Base Relocation Work
CNY:
HSBC China June Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.6; Est. 49.4
NZD:
RBNZ Paper Identifies ‘Persistent Bias’ in Inflation Forecasts
AUD:
Australia ANZ Weekly Consumer Sentiment Falls 0.4% to 114
Australian 1Q House Prices Rose 1.6% Q/Q; Est. 2% Gain
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Conference Board Leading Index Apr A -0.30% | P -0.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Q/Q Q1 A 1.60% | C 2.10% | P 1.90% | R 2.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Jun (P) A 49.9 | C 50.6 | P 50.9
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â HSBC Manufacturing PMI Jun (P) A 49.6 | C 49.2 | P 49.2
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Jun (P) C 50.1 | P 49.4
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Jun (P) C 52.5 | P 52.8
07:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Jun (P) C 51.5 | P 51.1
07:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Jun (P) C 52.9 | P 53
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jun (P) C 52 | P 52.2
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Jun (P) C 53.7 | P 53.8
10:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Total Orders Jun C 3 | P -5
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders May C -0.60% | P -0.50%
12:30    USD      Durables Ex Transportation May  C 0.80% | P 0.50%
13:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Apr C 0.60% | P 0.30%
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales May C 513K | P 517K
Harry Hindsight                  Â
- EUR: Opening slightly higher than Friday’s close the market continued to rise steadily through the session moving from the 1.1360 low to trade into the grey hours pushing at the 1.1400 levels with the day’s session again dominated by Greece and not much on the data front for the day. Early talks of Greek proposals with more prospects saw the market moving a little throughout the day with early trading seeing the market drop back quickly trading into the 1.1320 levels into the early part of London. A resurgent equity market saw strong flows back into the Eurozone and the market moved deep into the NYK session to once again test through the 1.1400 levels even against the poor confidence number. The end of the London session saw the market dropping back with profit taking kicking in and rumbles about Greece again moving in and the market dipping back towards the lows for the close.
- GBP: Early movement saw the market steadily move higher through the Asian session breaking back above the 1.5900 levels however, the fall back in the Euro dragged on the GBP in early London and the Cable quickly dropped back to the 1.5850 areas holding for a short period on light bids before the market again dropped this time to towards the 1.5800 areas and then a quiet session for Cable from then on remaining around the 1.5820 levels. EURGBP though saw the market moving steadily off the 0.7140 levels after a strong recovery in the equity markets in Europe leading the Euro higher and taking the EURGBP to the 0.7210 areas before the market started to slip back into a close in line with its opening.
- JPY: USDJPY opened higher around the 122.95 areas before slipping steadily back into the Tokyo session to close the gap on the charts, the market then maintained a reasonably tight range through Asia between the 122.60-80 levels, the move into the London session saw the market break steadily higher pushing to the 123.10 levels before again holding, strong EURJPY buying saw the market move to 123.30’s and although it dipped a little into the NYK session the market generally maintained the 123.30-40 areas in a quiet run to the close.
- AUD: A stronger USD over the session saw the market lower in the Oz however, the market initially moved higher in the Asian session testing back towards the 78 cent levels but unable to break through before the London session saw selling coming in from prop/day traders and a steady move through to the 0.7760 levels, as the USD generally strengthened across the session Oz again dipped lower pushing through the 0.7750 levels triggering light stops as the market moved through small pockets of support to trade to the 0.7730 levels and a steady range to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac NZ Consumer Confidence Q2 A 113 | P 117.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jun (A) A -6 | C -6 | P -5.5
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales May A 5.35M | C 5.23M | P 5.04M
Good Luck,
Andy
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