Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 123.632 | EURUSD 1.12059 | AUDUSD 0.77385 | NZDUSD 0.69117 | USDCAD 1.23243 | USDCHF 0.93634 | GBPUSD 1.57454 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1208 | 1.1179
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 138.58 | 137.80
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7739 | 0.7709
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.6916 | 0.6864
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2348 | 1.2325
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0495 | 1.0468
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.93665 | 0.9357
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5753 | 1.5734
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71165 | 0.7105
For today
- EUR: Another day of light trading with the day with the market seeing position cutting into the weekend controlling the limited trading in the Euro and for the most part all the other pairs. Moving from the opening just above the 1.1200 area it slipped back once the market moved into the Tokyo session with EURJPY selling playing a strong part in that move taking the Euro down to trade into the 1.1180 levels before levelling out and ranging around the 1.1185 levels into the grey hours. Topside offers light through the 1.1280 levels with some congestion around 1.1250 likely not to really stop any significant moves, a push through the 1.1280 offers and into the 1.1300 areas will likely see light stops appearing before the better offers make an appearance from 1.1350 onwards becoming stronger the closer you get to the 1.1400 area, given the way liquidity is with the drawn out will they won’t they scenario for Europe and Greece either side is decidedly weak and could break open for larger moves. Downside bids into the 1.1150 likely to be light but sufficient at the moment given the volumes the market is seeing however, a break to the 1.1100 levels sees some stronger bids but the potential on a break for a deeper move.
- GBP: Dead in the water, opening around the 1.5755 area and trading into the 1.5730’s and back again with cross GBP selling limited but causing what movement there was. Topside see’s light offers into the 1.5770-1.5800 levels before the market opens to weak offers around 1.5850 and then building strongly into the 1.5900-30 level a strong push through this level will open a test to the 1.6000 and possible option plays. Downside bids light into and through the 1.5700 levels with the light bids likely to continue on a move through to 1.5650 and 1.5600 and the pattern continuing into stronger bids around the 1.5500 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY saw steady selling from the opening In Tokyo having been unable to move out of the 123.60’s in Sydney, the market drifted lower once the Tokyo fix was over with and headed into the 123.20’s as EURJPY selling pushed both the Euro and USDJPY legs lower, the market eventually moved off the lows and pushed back towards the 123.40 levels where the market moves towards the grey hours. Topside sees limited offers with light appearances through the 123.90-124.10 areas and then stronger offers on any move towards the 124.40-50 areas, and then building into stronger levels to 125.00 areas. Downside bids light into the 123.00 levels then building to strong bids around the 122.50 areas with the possibility of stops through that level and weakness then into light 121.50 areas and an opening to last month’s ranges.
- AUD: Cross selling dominated the early trading as NZD Trade balance numbers came in far better than expected with a good revision as well leading the NZD to initially break back above the 0.6900 levels however, just prior to this the market in AUDNZD rallied to above the 1.1260 levels to touch the highs before dropping back as the numbers were released, again the movement was more to do with liquidity issues and algo’s running the market. The Oz never moved and once the Tokyo session opened the AUDNZD cross had already started to drift back to the opening levels as the suspected interest cuts to come took over the market with the Oz doing a little work as it drifted lower and tested back to the 0.7710 from the opening 0.7735 areas and then spending the remainder of the session drifting around the 0.7715-25 levels for most of the move towards the grey hours. Nothing changes with light offers into the 0.7750 areas and onwards building a little to the 78 cent level, a push through this level still leaves the 0.7840-50 areas to be cleared and for the moment that seems to be the sticking point in a quiet market, a push through the level will likely see weak stops however, the move to 79 cent is likely to prove troublesome for the moment without any strong momentum and with only confidence numbers in the US to be concerned about apart from Europe/Greece. Downside bids light through the 0.7700 levels and into the 0.7680 area before a little space appears however, once the market pushes through the 0.7650 level the bids start to look formidable down to the 75 cent levels.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
EUR:
Merkel Says Saturday Eurogroup Will Be Decisive for Greece
Hollande: Greece Must Make Proposals to Help Process
NZD:
RBNZ Says New Zealand Dollar Persists at Unjustifiable Level
RBNZ to Explore More Macro Options for Financial Stability
New Zealand May Trade Surplus NZ$350 Mio; Est. NZ$100m Deficit
N.Z. Imports Fall from Year Ago on Fuel, Crude Prices
CNY:
China to ‘Steadily’ Push Forward Yuan Convertibility: PBOC’s Fan
China to Widen Channels for Offshore Yuan Return: PBOC Fan
JPY:
Japan May Core Consumer Prices Rise 0.1% Y/y; Est. 0%
Japan May Unemployment Rate at 3.3%, Matching Est.
Abe Says Vote on Security Bills to Be Held After Enough Debate
SGD:
Singapore May Industrial Output Falls 2.3% Y/y; Est. 2.6% Drop
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) May A 350M | C -50M | P 123M | R 183M
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate May A 3.30% | C 3.30% | P 3.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Household Spending Y/Y May A 4.80% | C 3.70% | P -1.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y May A 0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jun A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y May C 5.40% | P 5.30%
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Jun (F) C 94.6 | P 94.6
Harry Hindsight                  Â
- EUR: Limited volume and limited action with the market trading in a very tight range around the 1.1205 for the early part of Asia before trading slightly higher as the USD weakened after the easing move by PBOC, the market moved to the 1.1220 levels and found light offers in the way and then traded back to trade around the 1.1200 areas. The move into the London session saw the range improve however, the market comments of interruptions to the meeting between the Greeks and the Eurozone sending the market down to the 1.1155 levels and bouncing quickly back to its previous ranges with a lack of liquidity causing much of the problem throughout the day as the market sits and waits for an in or out notification. The market tightens its range into the close as it moved through NYK and finished the day around the same levels as it opened.
- GBP: Cable traded very quietly through the Asian session slowly slipping back from the opening 1.5705 areas to test into the 1.5690 levels to create a large 15pip range. The move into the London session saw Cable rallying to push through to the 1.5720 levels and although there was a minor setback with a poor CBI report and touching to the lows of 1.5680 areas before starting a steady rally through the NYK opening to just above the 1.5770 levels and then a steady drift before settling into to finish quietly around the 1.5740 levels. EURGBP drifted from its highs just short of the 0.7150 levels to press against the 0.7100 levels as safe haven flows again moved into the market in a limited fashion, with increasingly limited volume the markets suffered from any trading in the crosses.
- JPY: A steady slip from the opening 123.90 levels, having traded briefly to just above the 123.95 levels, the PBOC easing news had more of an effect on the USD and USDJPY moved to 123.60 for the move into the London session, EURJPY selling dropped with the Euro moving from the 138.80 level in a straight line to touch through 137.70 before bouncing back to above 138.50 this took the USDJPY leg to below 123.40 before bouncing back to the 123.60 levels and then a quiet range around that level into the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7705 areas the market initially flirted with the 77 cent level before the market moved steadily higher over the first half of the Tokyo session pushing into the 0.7745 areas but never able to break through the offers into the 0.7750 area, the move into London saw selling appear from the early day traders however, it was unable to push below the 0.7720 levels before bouncing back again and then ranging for the most part from the 0.7735 levels to just above 0.7750 into the NYK session and finishing the day in the middle of the NYK ranges.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Sentiment Jul A 10.1 | C 10.1 | P 10.2
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Reported Sales Jun A 29 | C 32 | P 51
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income May A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending May A 0.90% | C 0.60% | P 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M May A 0.30% | P 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y May A 0.20% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M May A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y May A 1.20% | P 1.20% | R 1.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 20) A 271K | C 271K | P 267K | R 268K
Good Luck,
Andy
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