Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 122.501 | EURUSD 1.11407 | AUDUSD 0.77062 | NZDUSD 0.67775 | USDCAD 1.24966 | USDCHF 0.93531 | GBPUSD 1.57061 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
Bid  Offer  High  Low
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 122.61 | 122.36
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1148 | 1.1127
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 136.55 | 136.195
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7739 | 0.7687
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.6810 | 0.6768
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2504 | 1.2476
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.04245 | 1.0405
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9362 | 0.9344
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5715 | 1.5675
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7098 | 0.7091
For today
- EUR: The Euro traded quietly through the session dipping from the opening 1.1140 areas to 1.1130 before returning to the opening levels and holding in that range towards the grey hours. Topside offers into the 1.1240 levels with likely stops through the 1.1260 level before again running into offers from 1.1280 and through the 1.1300 areas, a push through the level will only see minor interference until the 1.1350 areas where congestion is likely to begin on any push to and through 1.1400 levels. Downside bids are likely to be a little weak with light bids from the 1.1120 levels and into the 1.1100 with possible light stops on a push through the 1.1070 areas and then a more stubborn level around the 1.1000 level and stronger bids running into the 1.0950 area lows from Sunday’s session.
- GBP: Cable opened around the 1.5710 levels and dipped on early selling which seemed to be more GBPJPY cross related than anything else, Cable then moved back off the lows of 1.5680 to trade back to the 1.5700 level and spent much of the day trading around that level into the grey hours. Topside offers into the 1.5770 levels and through to the 1.5800 area before the likelihood of stops appearing, the offers are likely to move in quickly through the 1.5800 areas and the market is likely to struggle into the 1.5850-1.5900 levels. Downside bids through the 1.5700 levels and likely to continue to 1.5650 before likely stops and those being light however, a break down here is likely to open a deeper move but for the moment the market in Cable is connected by the hip to the Euro again.
- JPY: The market dipped into the new session moving off the opening around the 122.50 levels and holding into the Tokyo session around the 122.40 levels, steady buying took the market to the 122.60 levels however the market seemed unwilling to move any further and drifted into the 122.50 opening levels into the grey hours. Topside offers from the 122.80 levels are likely to be weak however, a break of the 123.20 level is likely to see stops triggered and the market able to push quickly through the 123.40 levels and open a test of the 123.80-124.00 areas, through that level the market continues to be offered however, those offers are likely to increase as the market moves to the 124.20-40 areas. Downside bids into the 122.00 continue to hold the market and while the downside looks weak into the 121.50 level it would seem that the Yield players are willing to hold the market on the dips, a push down below 121.50 though opens up a deeper move to the 120-119 range from May.
- AUD: The Oz slipped lower from the opening around the 0.7710 levels drifting to the 0.7690 levels into the early TKY session, an unchanged PMI number in CNY helped the Oz higher moving it from the lows to trade to the 0.7740 levels before settling back to the 0.7720 areas and a quiet end to the session. Topside offers into the 0.7740 levels and a strong push through the 0.7760 opens a test of the 78 cent levels however, the offers around the area are likely to be strong and continual with little respite for the Oz as the market waits for the next set of numbers to gauge the economy and exports. Downside bids into the 0.7650 lighter than they were and the market is likely to see only weak bids into the 76 cent level however, from there the market is likely to see plentiful bids and the market struggling to break down until the 75 cent level goes, with the years lows and option interest likely to curtail movements lower.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
JPY:
Japan June Large Manufacturer Tankan Rises to 15; Est. 12
CNY:
China Manufacturing PMI at 50.2 for June; Est. 50.4
China June Non-Manufacturing PMI at 53.8; May 53.2
HSBC China June Manufacturing PMI 49.4; Est. 49.6
AUD:
Australia June Manufacturing Index Falls 8.1 Pts M/m to 44.2
Australia May Building Approvals Rose 2.4% MoM; Est. 1.2% Gain
NZD:
N.Z. June Residential Property Listings Rise 2.6% YoY
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q2 A 15 | C 12 | P 12
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q2 A 23 | C 22 | P 19
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Jun A 50.2 | C 50.4 | P 50.2
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Jun A 53.8 | P 53.2
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M May A 2.40% | C 1.30% | P 4.40% | R -5.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Jun (F) A 50.1 | C 49.9 | P 49.9
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â HSBC Manufacturing PMI Jun (F) A 49.4 | C 49.6 | P 49.6
07:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SVME-PMI Jun C 50.2 | P 49.4
07:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Manufacturing PMI Jun C 55.2 | P 54.8
07:50Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Jun (F) C 50.5 | P 50.5
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Jun (F) C 51.9 | P 51.9
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jun (F) C 52.5 | P 52.5
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Jun C 52.4 | P 52
11:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jun P -22.50%
12:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Jun C 211K | P 201K
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M May C 0.50% | P 2.20%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Jun C 53 | P 52.8
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Jun C 51.3 | P 49.5
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -4.9M
Harry Hindsight                  Â
- EUR: Asia was a steady seller of the Euro mostly through the EURJPY cross, chasing the market from the 1.1240 areas steadily into the London opening to 1.1160 areas mixed numbers at best but generally a flat mixture and doing nothing for the Euro and the market dipped for the first time to the 1.1140 levels before starting a steady recovery as the market shrugged off the Greek situation as a job all but over with and the consequences to come remain to be quantified with most of the Europeans stating the infrastructure is insulated for the most part, the market rallied into the NYK opening ans weak stops were triggered through the 1.1220 areas however, the spike higher was as far as it got for the day and the market immediately started to move lower again with the NYK market pushing it back through the 1.1200 level and into the consumer confidence numbers which came in particularly strong and moved the USD higher, the Euro quickly hit to below the 1.1120 before steadying and running out around the 1.1140 levels for the balance of the session. Greece failed to make the IMF payment as expected but for the moment due to technicalities has not officially defaulted, with the Greeks asking for a new two year bailout and short term extension of its current program, this was refused with the likelihood that any deal would now be post referendum.
- GBP: For the most part Cable remained in a tight range, opening around the 1.5740 level to drift to the 1.5730 area and then traded around that area into the London session. A quick move lower on the opening saw the market dip down to the 1.5700 levels before recovering slowly into the session before moving into the NYK session after a pretty uneventful London and a test to above the 1.5770 levels, confidence numbers reversed the move and Cable found itself back to the 1.5700 level for the third time and finished only just off those levels to the close.
- JPY: USDJY opened around the 122.50 areas and apart from an early run to above the 122.70 into Tokyo the market sent the day slipping back into early London morning, trading initially to the 122.20 levels with good EURJPY cross selling again before steadying in the move into London around the 122.40 areas before dipping again this time to push to just below the 122.00 levels before finding strong buyers and a bounce to the 122.40 levels and a quiet move into the NYK session, NYK tested the 122.00 level however, although there was a move higher on the confidence number it was less dramatic than in other pairs and the USDJPY again tested to the 122.00 areas as London closed, once London was out of the way the market again saw steady buying off the lows and the market closing around the 122.50 level.
- AUD: A very quiet session for the Oz drifting from the opening levels of 0.7690 to test to the 0.7660 level into the Tokyo session and although it spent a couple of hours testing the level once it moved off the level it never returned pushing into the London session little changed from the opening and the NYK session saw the same type of rally up before the numbers to 0.7720 areas back down through the 0.7690 area post confidence number before steadily rallying to above the 0.7710 level into the later part of the session to finish the day.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M May A 0.00% | P -1.70% | R -0.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Sentiment Jun A 7 | C 2 | P 1
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NBNZ Business Confidence Jun A -2.3 | P 15.7
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y May A 0.60% | C 0.70% | P 0.90% | R 0.70%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y May A 5.80% | C 5.80% | P 0.40%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Jun A 89.7 | C 94 | P 93.1 | R 92.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Jun A -1K | C -7K | P -6K | R -5K
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Rate Jun A 6.40% | C 6.40% | P 6.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italian Unemployment Rate May (P) A 12.40% | C 12.50% | P 12.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (GBP) (1Q) A -26.5B | C -23.7B | P -25.3B | R -28.9B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 (F) A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Apr A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate May A 11.10% | C 11.10% | P 11.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jun A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.30% | R 0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Jun (A) A 0.80% | C 0.80% | P 0.90%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Apr A -0.10% | C 0.10% | P -0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Apr A 4.90% | C 5.00% | P 5.04%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Jun A 49.4 | C 50.3 | P 46.2
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Jun A 101.4 | C 96.7 | P 95.4
Good Luck,
Andy
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