Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 123.168 | EURUSD 1.10535 | AUDUSD 0.76462 | NZDUSD 0.6745 | USDCAD 1.25896 | USDCHF 0.94831 | GBPUSD 1.5617 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 123.47 | 123.14
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1078 | 1.1032
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 136.635 | 136.06
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7657 | 0.7629
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.6736 | 0.6694
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2597 | 1.2580
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0482 | 1.0469
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.94895 | 0.94605
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5617 | 1.5599
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70935 | 0.7075
For today
- EUR: Early trading drifted from the 1.1055 areas to test briefly below the 1.1040 levels with early polls in Greece suggesting a 3.9% win for the Yes vote, this led to a slightly better Euro pushing off the lows and trading towards the 1.1080 levels. Topside offers light through the 1.1080 areas and through to the 1.1140 area where stronger offers are possible until the 1.1180 levels with a possibility of stops through the figure area, offers continue from the 1.1140 areas and although a push through will likely see a mixture of stops and offers the offers are likely to be a little stronger, a push here exposes a further attempt to the 1.1300 levels however, with a NFP today the market could see those disappear quickly. Downside bids into the 1.1040 levels are likely to continue to the 1.1000 areas with light stops through the levels and an opening to test the 1.0950 areas again, while there is possibly strong bids in the area the market will open to further weakness on a push through the level.
- GBP: Cable was dead in the water trading in a fairly tight range through Asia drifting initially from the 1.5620 levels to test the 1.5600 level before again moving back to the opening levels, and as you would expect on a NFP day light in volume through the session. Topside offers light into the 1.5650 levels a continuing move and a push through the 1.5680 areas is likely to see weak stops and a quick move back through the 1.5700 levels and then stronger offers start to appear on a move to the 1.5740 areas. Downside bids into the 1.5600 levels are currently seeing some stubbornness and looks to be the strongest point for the moment, a push through is likely to see weak stops and a steady run lower could be on the cards and into the 1.5500 and a slightly better defence line technically but 1.52-54 range and a return to last month’s opening ranges.
- JPY: USDJPY opened just below the 123.20 levels and ran quietly higher to test towards the 123.50 levels but in limited action and was unable to gather any real momentum and is heading into the latter part of the session holding the 123.30 and just off the openings. Topside offers into the 123.50 are likely to continue to the 123.80 areas and then more solid resistance into the 124.00 levels but again the market is likely to struggle from that point with 124.50 a strong area leading to a test again above the 125.00 levels, Downside bids into the 122.00 levels are light however, technically the market moving towards the 121.50 is likely to increase momentum and an opening to the ranges from May opening on a push through.
- AUD: A quiet holding pattern for the Oz pushing down to the 0.7630 levels and ranging back to the opening 0.7650 levels with only minor pushes through the levels in quiet trading. Topside offers likely through the 0.7670 levels and into 0.7680 before the possibility of a small squeezer back the 77 cent levels with weakness until that point, further offers from the 77 cent level are light until above the 0.7720-40 areas are cleared out. Downside light bids into the 76 cent levels before weakness opens to a test of the down to the 0.7550 levels and then likely solid strength to the 75 cent levels and possible option plays.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
JPY:
BOJ: Japanese companies See 1.4% YoY Inflation in 1 Year
Bank of Japan: Japanese households see 3% Inflation in 1 Year
Japanese Sold Net 45.2 Billion Yen Overseas debt last week
Japan Won’t Step Up N. Korea Sanctions for time being: Sankei
EUR:
EU, Greece were EU60m apart, Juncker tells allies: Politico
GBP/EUR:
BOE’s Cunliffe: Greek exit Can’t Be excluded as a Possibility
CNY:
China’s Shenzhen Home Prices Reach Record Levels: China Daily
China Unlikely to cut Interest Rate in 2H: Securities Journal
AUD:
Australia May Trade Deficit A$2.75b; Est. A$2.23b deficit
NZD:
Lower N.Z. Dollar Is Offset to Weak Commodity Prices, Joyce Says
New Zealand House-Price Inflation Accelerates, Led by Auckland
New Zealand Export Commodity Prices Decline 19.7% From Year Ago
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Jun A 34.20% | C 36.20% | P 35.60%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) May A -2.75B | C -2.21B | P -3.89B | R -4.14B
06:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Nationwide House Prices M/M Jun C 0.60% | P 0.30%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction PMI Jun C 56.6 | P Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 55.9
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M May C 0.10% | P -0.10%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y May C -2.10% | P -2.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Jun C 225K | P 280K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jun C 5.40% | P 5.50%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Jun C 0.20% | P 0.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 27) C 270K | P 271K
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders May C -0.30% | P -0.40%
Harry Hindsight                  Â
- EUR: After missing its IMF payments the Greeks offered to make concessions and accept many of the terms proposed in an extended bailout package that they originally rejected last week however, after the previous months of playing brinkmanship the game they played is now over and having called for a referendum Chancellor Merkel quickly stated her view that no further negotiations should take place until after that vote. The market held quietly around the 1.1140 areas through the Asian session and dipped only once the London market appeared in the market dipping to the 1.1100 levels, mixed PMI numbers saw them generally in line with expectations and helping the Euro to jump to above the 1.1160 levels from the lows, before gradually drifting back again to the figure area, a push through on better employment numbers in the US saw a slight gap as the market quickly hit the 1.1080 level before again starting a steady drift lower over the remainder of the session to trade into the 1.1050 levels and closing just off the lows.
- GBP: Cable opened around the 1.5710 areas and saw early GBPJPY cross selling into the Tokyo session before reversing the early losses and pushing back off the 1.5680 levels to trade towards the 1.5720 into the London session, a poor PMI Manufacturing number sent the market quickly and dropped back to the 1.5650 levels before finding sufficient support however, from that point the market started to drift and steadily pushed through the 1.5600 leave into the session before moving off the level to finish the day just off the lows.
- JPY: Nothing spectacular but a steady grind higher over the day moving from the opening 122.40 levels the market moved into the London session pushing at the 122.70 levels and eventually saw the market push up against the 123.00 level just before the NYK session, the market rejected the 123.20 levels in early NYK before again running from the 122.90 levels for another steady rise to the level and into the close just short of the area.
- AUD: The Oz climbed higher during Asia as AUDJPY cross buying helped the market a little with mixed PMI numbers in CNY helping the market along and a push from the lows around the 0.7690 areas to test towards the 0.7740 levels before drifting a little into the London session around 0.7710 levels, London started the selling into early trading and the market dropped back over the period to NYK to the 0.7670 levels in light trading, NYK held the market around the 0.7650 levels before dropping through the level with light stops triggering to 0.7640 and then holding the 0.7650 levels to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q2 A 15 | C 12 | P 12
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q2 A 23 | C 22 | P 19
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Jun A 50.2 | C 50.4 | P 50.2
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Jun A 53.8 | P 53.2
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M May A 2.40% | C 1.30% | P -4.40% | R -5.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Jun (F) A 50.1 | C 49.9 | P 49.9
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â HSBC Manufacturing PMI Jun (F) A 49.4 | C 49.6 | P 49.6
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SVME-PMI Jun A 50 | C 50.2 | P 49.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Manufacturing PMI Jun A 54.1 | C 55.2 | P 54.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Jun (F) A 50.7 | C 50.5 | P 50.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Jun (F) A 51.9 | C 51.9 | P 51.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jun (F) A 52.5 | C 52.5 | P 52.5
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Jun A 51.4 | C 52.4 | P 52 | R 51.9
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jun A 42.70% | P -22.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Jun A 237K | C 211K | P 201K | R 203K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M May A 0.80% | C 0.50% | P 2.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Jun A 53.5 | C 53 | P 52.8
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Jun A 49.5 | C 51.3 | P 49.5
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -2.7M | C -1.9M | P -4.9M
Good Luck,
Andy
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