Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 122.568 | EURUSD 1.10567 | AUDUSD 0.7499 | NZDUSD 0.66875 | USDCAD 1.26518 | USDCHF 0.9427 | GBPUSD 1.56056 |
Â
Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
Bid  Offer  High  Low
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 122.81 | 122.54
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1057 | 1.10255
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 135.67 | 135.24
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7502 | 0.7465
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.6686 | 0.6659
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2668 | 1.2644
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0424 | 1.0406
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.94405 | 0.9424
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5610 | 1.5586
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7085 | 0.7075
For today
EUR: A quiet session so far with the market easing back from the opening just short of the 1.10670 levels to push gradually to below the 1.1030 levels and holding in the areas before the RBA announcement. Post release there was very little change in the market and the Euro remains around those levels. Topside offers light into the 1.1100 however, they are likely to be a little stronger than they were yesterday as the market awaits the next round of formal chats between the two sides, that is without the erstwhile Yanis Varoufakis sacrificed in and endeavour to sweeten the talks, a push through the topside will see resistance possibly until the 1.1120 areas before the likelihood of some stops appearing in the market and market opening to the 1.1150 areas and then continual offers through to the 1.1220 areas. Downside bids are likely to be a little thicker on an approach to the 1.1000 areas with continual bids towards the 1.0950 areas before a break to the downside opens and allowing the market to move into the 1.08-1.09 range from May.
GBP: Opening around the 1.5605 areas the market held the levels moving into Tokyo before dipping lower through the session on limited volume to ease just below the 1.5590 levels and then trade around that deep in the session and the grey hours. With what looked like a single ticket running the market to make the highs above 1.5610. Topside offers light into the 1.5630 levels with those offers likely to be mixed with stops on a break above the level and then continuing light offers until the market closes on the 1.5700 areas and possibly strong offerings, through there the market opens only a little with move offers likely to appear around the 1.5750-70 areas and strengthening into the 1.5800 areas. Downside sees bids from the 1.5570 levels and into stronger 1.5540 areas before the market sees stops appearing and possibly a quick move to the 1.5500, a push through the 1.5480 areas is likely to see the market opening to the downside and 1.5450 only lightly defended before reaching a stronger 1.5400.
JPY: Early gains in Tokyo from the opening below 122.60 were eventually wiped out over the remainder of the session with the market holding around the opening levels having tested into the 122.80 areas, topside offers still above the 122.80 levels and likely to continue through the 123.00 areas to 123.20 before the possibility of stops appearing in the market however, EURJPY has been the dominant pairing from the opening session of the week for the past two and this is possibly going to continue however, a push through the 123.20 levels will opening up another test to the topside and the 124.00 levels. Downside is all about the 122.00 areas having tested it a few times over the past couple of weeks the support seems to be fairly substantial for the moment however a push through the 121.80 levels will quickly open up the downside for a move into the 120.00 areas and would probably refresh a stale looking market currently trapped in a reasonably tight range.
AUD: The Oz drifted from the opening 0.7495 levels testing early above the 75 cent level before steady selling from weak longs appeared into the Tokyo session, dipping steadily back to the 0.7475 levels the market held in the area until the RBA announcement of unchanged and no noticeable deviation in the commentary, the market initially set a low just above the 0.7465 levels before rising to the 0.7490 levels and then doing the usual back and forth before pushing into the grey hours pushing towards the open. Topside offers from the 0.7530-40 levels decreasing offers through to the 0.7560 levels with possible weak stops behind the level, a push here would open the 76 cent level and the possibility of moving through to the 0.7650 before any major offers. Downside is open to further declines technically, with the 0.7460-50 area supplying reasonable bids for the moment and a move through targeting the 74 cent area and into the next handle and a more comfortable area for the RBA one would assume.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
AUD:
RBA Holds Fire as Greek Drama Drives Currency Sub 75 Cents
Australia ANZ Weekly Consumer Sentiment Falls 4.6% to 111
JPY:
Abe Aide Says BOJ Could Ease More If Greece Sends Yen Surging
Japan Must Consider Exemptions for 2017 Sales Tax, Abe Aide Says
Aso: Masatsugu Asakawa Appointed Japan MOF’s Currency Chief
Amari: Japan Will Carefully Watch Developments on Greek Issues
CNY:
China Stock Market Rout Won’t Have Big Impact on FDI: Mofcom
CNY/EUR:
China to Deepen Financial Ties With EU, Mofcom Spokesman Says
EUR:
50% in French Poll Want Greece to Leave the Euro: Le Parisien
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 2.00% | C 2.00% | P 2.00%
05:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jun C 3.30% | P 3.30%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M May C 0.10% | P 0.90%
07:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves Jun P 517.5B
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M May C -0.20% | P 0.40%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y May C 1.60% | P 1.20%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M May C 0.10% | P -0.40%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y May C 1.80% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CAD) May C -2.5B | P -2.97B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance May C -$42.00B | P -$40.90B
14:00Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Jun P 0.60%
Harry Hindsight                  Â
- EUR: The market opened down from the close on Friday, opening around the 1.0990 levels and then pushing quickly to touch the 1.0970 areas before the market moved off the lows trading quickly to the 1.1030 level before seeing light resistance, the market remained reasonably choppy throughout the day however, it was contained somewhat by lighter volumes than you’d expect but given the never ending saga with the Greek tragedy still winding onwards. The market broke slightly higher through the Asian session to push briefly through the 1.1050 levels before drifting back into the grey hours to the 1.1010 and into the grey hours and a small short squeeze higher towards the 1.1090 levels before levelling off into the London session trading around the 1.1060 levels. Poor German factory orders had limited impact and after a strong Sentix confidence number and the market again pushed to the highs falling just short of the 1.1100 level before a steady drift into the NYK session falling back to just above the 1.1000, NYK were light buyers from the opening and again over an extended period the market tested towards the highs before drifting off to the 1.1050 levels with the gap on the charts filled.
- GBP: Cable had very little movement over the course of the Asian session opening only slightly lower from the Friday close, the market moved off the 1.5540 lows to ease to the 1.5570 levels and set the Asian range before Tokyo opened. The move into the grey hours saw the Cable dragged higher by movement in the Euro before dropping quickly back into the London session as reasonable buying in the EURGBP took over and pushing the cross back through the 0.7100 levels to touch above 0.7120 before steadily dropping back to the 0.7080 levels having filled the gap on the charts. Cable then traded quietly through into the NYK session before seeing a small short squeeze higher and pushing to the 1.5630 levels before trading quietly to the 1.5600 areas for the close.
- JPY: Opening lower with strong EURJPY selling after the Greek election result saw the market move off the 121.90 levels and push quickly back to the 122.40 areas as early Japanese buyers moved in, the market held the areas into the Tokyo opening before a resurgent Euro led to EURJPY cross buying taking the USDJPY steadily to the 122.70 levels and filling the gap before slipping back to the 122.20 levels, grey hours buying helped the USDJPY back to 122.70 and the move into the London session saw the market make an attempt to the 123.00 levels and NYK followed with its own attempt before drifting back off in limited trading before settling around the 122.50 levels with the market struggling for direction.
- AUD: Dipping from the opening 0.7480 levels and touching the 0.7465 area before recovering and doing a little work into the Tokyo session to touch above the 0.7515 levels, the market returned to the lows again with limited volume before seeing a minor short squeeze in the grey hours to push through 0.7520 into the London session, the market continued in a choppy but tight range for the most part seeing some reasonable buying into the NYK session to extend the highs to above the 0.7530 levels before the market started to drift back to the 75 cent levels for the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â TD Securities Inflation M/M Jun A 0.10% | P 0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index May (P) A 106.2 | C 106.2 | P 106.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M May A -0.20% | C 0.00% | P 1.40%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jun A 0.10% | C -0.10% | P 0.20%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jun A -1.00% | C -1.20% | P -1.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail PMI Jun A 50.4 | P 51.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Jul A 18.5 | C 15.6 | P 17.1
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Jun A 55.9 | C 56.2 | P 62.3
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Jun A 56 | C 56 | P 55.7
Good Luck,
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.