Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 122.555 | EURUSD 1.10113 | AUDUSD 0.74524 | NZDUSD 0.66567 | USDCAD 1.27086 | USDCHF 0.94665 | GBPUSD 1.54621 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10175 | 1.09745
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 134.92 | 133.96
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7459 | 0.7390
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.6672 | 0.6622
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2752 | 1.2702
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.04105 | 1.0399
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9476 | 0.94545
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5465 | 1.5427
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7134 | 0.7112
For Today
- EUR: Reasonably choppy day with the market moving around the 1.1000, early Tokyo taking the market into the mid-teens before dipping back to test the 1.0980 levels and weak bids however, the market held the levels and returned to the 1.1000 areas as the market moved towards the London session. Light offers into the 1.1060 levels and possibly stronger through the 1.1080 levels and then further offers through the 1.1100 areas a break through the 1.1140 levels could see a minor short squeeze however, one assumes that the market has less shorts than previously and any break will be limited. Downside bids now cleared through the 1.0950 and 1.0920 looks to be the stronger near level with a break here likely to run into further stronger interest through the 1.0880 levels however, at this point one would suspect impetus driving the market through for a test into the 1.0820-00 levels with stops likely through the 1.0850 areas.
- GBP: Early trading saw the market move into Tokyo unchanged for the most part from the opening 1.5460 levels however, the market then started to drift with light EURGBP buying and the Cable under pressure from cross/JPY selling after yesterday’s poor manufacturing numbers, the market tested into the 1.5430’s and just above yesterday’s lows which for the moment go unchallenged. Downside sees congestion into the 1.5400 levels however a push through the area and into the 1.5350 opens up the downside bids into 1.5300 and possibly stronger bids into the 1.5200 levels. Topside offers light into the 1.5500 levels and likely to be light until the market reaches to the 1.5600 areas where stronger offers are likely to appear.
- JPY: The market again dominated by cross/JPY selling with the equity market again under pressure with 45% of Chinese A class companies shares suspended, this spilled over generally into the market and Japanese retail saw further margin squeezes with commodities, equities leading to cross/JPY selling from the early parts of the session with USDJPY unable to move much beyond the opening 122.55 areas and then dropping quickly back to test the 122.00 again and then ranging from the low to 122.20 for a reasonably quiet period. Topside offers likely from the 122.60 level increasing in size towards the 123.00 areas, even through the 123.00 level the market is still likely to see offers controlling the topside and the market is likely to only see light stops through the 123.20 areas and further supply then appearing from 123.40 onwards. Downside bids seem to be drawn around the 122.00 levels and a push through the 121.80 level is likely to see weak stops and the market opening to a test of the 121.20-00 areas with the possibility of further weakness.
- AUD: After a slight rise from the opening cross/JPY selling hit the Oz and the market steadily moved off the 0.7460 level highs to push down through the 74 cent level to trigger light weak stops before bouncing back to trade around the 0.7410-20 areas for the rest of the session. Topside offers are light through the 0.7450 levels before opening the market for a test into the 75 cent levels and the near term resistance for the moment, a strong push through the 0.7540 levels will likely see stops appear in the market and the market opening for a quick test through the next cent and into the 0.7600 levels. Downside sees support for the moment around the 74 cent level however, the market has pushed through a couple of times now and a break below the 0.7390-80 areas is likely to open up the downside.
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Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
CNY:
China Central Bank Pledges Liquidity Support to Stock Market
China Orders Central State-Owned Cos. Not to Cut Listed Shares
JPY:
Abe Aide Says $20 Billion May Be Needed to Offset Next Tax Hike
Japan’s Current-Acct Surplus Biggest for May Since 2007
EUR:
Greece Will Make ESM Request Today, Syriza Party’s Filis Says
Juncker Says Greek Woes Affect Romania, Bulgaria, Others
Greece Said to Face 8.30 a.m. Friday Deadline for New Proposals
Poll Shows 62% of French against Greek Debt Write-down: Figaro
GBP:
U.K. June BRC Shop Price Index -1.3% Y/y vs May -1.9% Y/y
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Jun A -1.30% | P -1.90%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) May A 1.64T | C 1.38T | P 1.27T
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey: Current Jun A 53.5 | C 53.2 | P 53.3
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M May P 11.60%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 2.4M
18:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Meeting Minutes
Harry Hindsight                  Â
- EUR: Uncertainties remain with the day focused on the discussions in Europe with the Greeks in dire straits and the Europeans less than willing to play games anymore, opening around the 1.1060 levels the market slowly traded through to the 1.1030 levels into the grey hours in quiet trading in Asia, a flat German IP number initially started further selling and the market saw strong selling into the London session extending into the NYK session having initially struggled with the 1.0960 levels, but with the added selling of the US the market broke quickly to trade into the 1.0920 levels and clearing out the bids that had been holding the market for the past few days. Having touched through the 1.0920 levels the market stalled and drifted higher over the next few hours with the market waiting patiently for news from the meeting in Europe, the market managed to reach the 1.0980 levels and weak stops and the first round of comments, sending the market quickly to push above the 1.1050 before the commentary became more balanced and those looking for a settlement were quickly offset by those that are reluctant to settle a deal for the sake of doing it. The market then drifted from those levels back towards the 1.1000 areas into the close.
- GBP: A quiet session through the Asian session with the market almost unchanged from the opening just above the 1.5600 levels and into the grey hours again pushing through that level, weak selling in the Euro saw the Cable follow the move and run straight into the UK Manufacturing numbers showing another decline and sending the Cable on a steady move lower, as concerns for the European/Greek saga’s increased and the poor numbers USD took over as a safe haven area and the USD competed strongly against the GBP in particular with Cable drifting to the 1.5420 levels into the NYK session before finding some support and the market levelling off with the expectations of the European comments, the market saw a slight move to the 1.5490 late into the session before drifting to the 1.5460 levels and into the close.
- JPY: USDJPY held up in the Asian session trading from the opening 122.60 levels however having pushed towards the 122.90 late into the session and into the London period the market reversed as the Euro started to come under pressure with EURJPY selling again dominant throughout the London trading period pushing the USDJPY to the 122.00 areas again and in the face of strong USD buying, moving off the Lows the market did spend the period after London had left for the day pushing back to the 122.60 levels more as a consequence of the move in the Euro than direct USDJPY buying and the market finished the day only just short of the opening levels.
- AUD: The Asian session traded quietly for the Oz with the market moving off the opening 75 cent levels and slipping down to trade for a good proportion of the session around the 0.7480 levels, the move into the grey hours saw light day traders moving in to take the market back to the 75 cent areas however, the drop in the Euro quickly saw cross/JPY selling spill over into the AUD/JPY carry trade, given the state of the equity markets one would guess that margins were already being squeezed across the retail Japan sector and the early moves in the Euro sent the Oz lower and through to the 0.7440 levels before finding some support however, while the market remained bid the selling slowly ground through those bids to move into the NYK session pushing slightly through the 74 cent levels before starting a recovery, the break back through 0.7440 saw a small short squeeze and the market topped just below the 0.7480 levels before sagging back to the 0.7450 areas to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 2.00% | C 2.00% | P 2.00%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jun A 3.30% | C 3.30% | P 3.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M May A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.90% | R 0.60%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves Jun A 516.2B | P 517.5B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M May A 0.40% | C -0.20% | P 0.40% | R 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y May A 2.10% | C 1.60% | P 1.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M May A -0.60% | C 0.10% | P -0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y May A 1.00% | C 1.80% | P 0.20% | R 0.10%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CAD) May A -3.34B | C -2.5B | P -2.97B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance May A -41.87B | C -$42.00B | P -$40.90B | R -40.7B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Jun A 0.70% | P 0.60%
Good Luck,
Andy
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