Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 121.32 | EURUSD 1.10378 | AUDUSD 0.74466 | NZDUSD 0.67277 | USDCAD 1.27066 | USDCHF 0.94784 | GBPUSD 1.53799 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 122.045 | 121.27
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1105 | 1.1030
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 135.40 | 133.94
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7496 | 0.7447
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.6772 | 0.6739
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2713 | 1.2682
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0504 | 1.0457
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9492 | 0.94605
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5408 | 1.5364
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7210 | 0.7173
For Today
- EUR: The Greeks delivered the new proposal late into the previous session which saw the market rising into the close and continuing into the new session pushing to the 1.1080 levels before slipping a little into the Tokyo session however, while the trust between the two sides is at an all-time low the actual proposals go a good way towards what the creditors have been asking for all along and once the documents had been released for perusal the market again slowly headed higher in the Euro driving steadily over the course of the session to just above the 1.1100 areas. Topside offers continue to the 1.1120-30 areas with a possibility of light stops through the level with stronger offers likely into the 1.1180-1.1220 areas before the market opens for further tests to the topside, of course this is all dependent on how the Europeans take the proposals and putting aside the trust issues. Downside bids weak through the 1.1050 levels with only a slight increase of bids into the 1.1000 areas and only strengthening into the 1.0950 areas and below. Broadsheet publications suggest that Germany at least is coming under pressure from several countries to help break the stalemate and avert the possible rupture of the union the German leadership quickly ruled out Greek debt write-downs as part of any new bailout plans. However, although the details have been released to the media the said document has still not been signed off by the Greek parliament and is more or less what the Greek people voted against.
- GBP: Dragged along by the Euro, the market had initially drifted from the 1.5380 opening levels and drifted to below 1.5370 before a resurgent Euro pushed higher and Cable moved to above the 1.5400 levels before slipping back a little as the market moves towards London, GBP also lost ground a little against the Euro with the cross edging back above the 0.7200 levels. Topside offers likely to be light with weak stops above the 1.5420 levels before more weak offers into the 1.5450 areas, and a possible break through the area to test into the 1.5550 levels. Downside bids reasonably strong into the 1.5300 levels with a break here opening up the 1.5200 areas and limited bidding with April-May’s ranges open.
- JPY: News in China and pressure relaxing on the margins for those holding equities saw the USDJPY quickly move higher with strong EURJPY buying in particular helping the USDJPY to move from the 121.30 levels and into the offers around the 121.80 area into the Tokyo session, drifting a little the market saw USDJPY complete a move through the 122.00 in steady trading before relaxing to the 121.80 into the grey hours. Topside push through the 122.20-30 areas will likely see light offering through the 122.50 areas before running to stronger offers from 122.80 onwards with stops likely through 123.00 and opening up the market for a run to probably the 123.70 levels. Downside bids are likely to be reasonable into the 121.20 areas again before the market opens to a move lower trigging stops through a break below 120.40.
- AUD: A steady rise for the Oz with outside factors for the most part dominating the move, light buying as the fortunes of the Chinese equity market held from yesterday’s rally albeit against a back drop of suspensions and restrictions but enough to stabilize the market for the moment. Into the Tokyo session the market saw buying into the AUDJPY carry trade as those margins were free from danger for the most part and the Oz pushed to the 0.7480 levels and steadily then into the mid 0.7490’s to peak in mid-session, the market since then has only lightly backed away from those highs and holds the 0.7480-90 levels. Topside offers remain in the 75 cent level and for the moment the short term is looking better the fact that Iron ore prices are on there lows and Chinese imports from Oz are declining it doesn’t look rosy. Downside see’s light bidding into the 0.7400 areas and through to the 0.7380 levels before the market opens and break out stops are likely to quickly appear and the market open for a test of the 73 cent levels and a comfortable level for the RBA, for the moment!
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
Brief notations on Greek proposals
Sets primary surplus target of 1% in 2015, 2% 2016
Includes VAT rate of 23% for restaurants and catering
Sets VAT for hotels at 13%
To eliminate VAT tax breaks for islands by end of 2016
Primary surplus targets to be looked at again because situation has changed
To raise corporate tax in 2015
To increase tax on shipping companies
EKAS benefit to be gradually phased out for all pensioners by end of Dec 2019
To increase luxury tax and implement tax on TV adverts immediately
Legislation on new system of collective bargaining to be ready by Q4 2015
Will facilitate the completion of the tenders for privatisation of regional airports, train and the ports of Piraeus, Thessaloniki and Hellinikon
Will announce binding bid dates for privatizations of ports no later than Oct 2015
Will transfer remaining state share in Greek telecoms company OTE to the privatisation agency
Will raise the solidarity surcharge on income tax
To cut defence spending by 300mio by 2016 end
Zero deficit clauses on pensions will be suspended until Oct 2015 when there will be pension before legislation
EUR:
Greece seeks at least Euro 53.5B in bailout loans
Calls for EU-Backed debt re-profiling after 2022
ESM loan to be used for refinancing of EU53.5B of debt
Dijsselbloem Asks ECB, EC, IMF to Assess Greek Aid Request: FD
CNY:
Chinese Investors Should Be Confident in Big Bank Shares: News
NZD:
New N.Z. Seasonally Adjusted CPI Fell 0.3% in 1Q: Statistics NZ
AUD:
Australia May Home-Loan Approvals Fell 6.1% M/M; Est. 3% Fall
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI Y/Y Jun A -2.40% | C -2.20% | P -2.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans May A -6.10% | C -2.80% | P 1.00% | R 0.70%
5:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Index Jun A 41.7 | C 41.9 | P 41.4
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) May C -9.7B | P -8.6B
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Jun C -4.5K | P 58.9K
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jun C 6.90% | P 6.80%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories May C 0.20% | P 0.40%
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Trade Sales M/M May C 0.30% | P 1.60%
Harry Hindsight                  Â
- EUR: A quiet session through Asia with the market movements elsewhere with the Euro edging only slightly higher from the opening around 1.1075 levels to test into the 1.1080’s but never quiet breaking to the topside, having tested into the 1.1060’s, grey hour buying on optimism that Europe will solve the problems for Greece however, early attempts to push through the 1.1120 levels were soon dashed with continuing strong commentary from the Germans in particular and the market dropped into the London session triggering weak stops and falling back to the 1.1040 areas before finding support down through and into the 1.1020’s. The move into the NYK session saw the market stuck between the 1.1030-60 ranges for the most part before the approach to the end of London and again strong selling with the market less inclined to hold position overnight and the market dipped back through the 1.1000 levels before bouncing back to the 1.1040 closing areas.
- GBP: Early trading in Asia was quiet with the market unable to move to much beyond the 1.5370 levels or break below the 1.5360 for much of the session, release of Oz employment numbers saw Cable quickly move to the 1.5380 levels however, it wasn’t until the market moved into the grey hours that strong Euro buying dragged the Cable with it and then EURGBP selling kicked in from above 0.7200 levels to sell the cross down to the 0.7160 areas, Cable pushed to the 1.5420 levels before a falling Euro started to drag on GBP, Cable remained choppy through to the NYK session trading in the 1.5370-1.5410 levels before late selling saw the market drop back through the 1.5350 slightly and then bounce back to the 1.5380 levels for a quiet close.
- JPY: The USDJPY opened around the 120.60 levels and although the market saw early selling in the cross/JPY with especially AUDJPY heading towards the years lows saw early Tokyo enter the market and the USDJPY starting a steady rise higher triggering weak stops through the 121.00 levels before running into offers around the 121.20-30 levels, early Europeans then pushed it to the 121.40 and tight range trading around that level into the NYK session eventually finishing the day around the 121.30 level in tight range trading.
- AUD: The Oz opened quietly and held the opening 0.7430 levels into the Tokyo session before strong AUDJPY selling moved in before the employment figures were released taking the Oz briefly below the 74 cent levels, the market bounced from the lows and the release saw another rise in employment and the market quickly surged to the 0.7450 levels and then steadily to the 0.7470 areas and ranged into the grey hours before pushing to the 0.7490 levels into the London session. London were steady sellers from the opening and the market eventually traded back to the 0.7420 levels, the market saw a little choppy trading with the market then ranging between the 0.7430-60 for the day to finish inside that range to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Jun A 40% | C 37% | P 34%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders M/M May A 0.60% | C -4.60% | P 3.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Jun A 3.80% | C 4.00% | P 4.00% | R 4.10%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jun A 1.40% | C 1.40% | P 1.20%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Jun A -4.80% | C -4.60% | P -4.60%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Jun A 7.3K | C 0.1K | P 42.0K | R 40.0K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jun A 6.00% | C 6.10% | P 6.00% | R 5.90%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Tool Orders Y/Y (JUN P) A 6.60% | P 15.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance (EUR) May A 22.8B | C 20.6B | P 22.3B | R 21.5B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target A 375B | C 375B | P 375B
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Jun A 203K | C 191K | P 201.7K | R 197K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M May A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 4) A 297K | C 277K | P 281K | R 282K
Good Luck,
Andy
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