Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 123.397 | EURUSD 1.10088 | AUDUSD 0.74513 | NZDUSD 0.6707 | USDCAD 1.27304 | USDCHF 0.94484 | GBPUSD 1.56357 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 123.50 | 123.26
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1017 | 1.0991
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 135.88 | 135.55
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7489 | 0.7437
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.6724 | 0.6696
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2747 | 1.2724
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0404 | 1.0396
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9461 | 0.9445
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5654 | 1.5629
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7045 | 0.7026
For Today
- EUR: A 1200 word memorandum from the IMF sounded like a rallying call for the European area to join together for a closer fiscal unity, not so strange given the IMF leaderships associations and nationalities however, it had little impact on the market although the underlying statement was that Greece can’t survive unless the EU nations give it piles of cash that will never be returned, not rocket science but the current situation in the countries with the largest exposure to Greece will find their governments squirming at the next election point one assumes and while some will feel the policies laid out for the Greeks as being something beyond reasonable will surely feel that giving said cash will abrogate the Greeks from the agreements, this of course will spread the same mind-set to other countries and a return to spending beyond means because the EU will pay the bill. However, early buying after the release saw the market drifting back from the highs around the 1.1015 levels dipping down into the 1.0990 area and trading thereafter quietly around the 1.1000 for most of the day. Topside offers light until the 1.1080 level and only slightly stronger one suspects before a break through the 1.1100, possible light offers are not likely to be problematic on a push and the 1.1200 level is open for the moment until the market can refresh or the attempt is made. Downside bids through to the 1.0980 levels with weak stops likely to appear below the 1.0970 levels and a test through the 1.0920 will depend on the impetus involved and news at the time, with a push through the likely strong bids break the market open for further downside movement with 1.0820 the next area to contend.
- GBP: Cable moved a little higher, pushing from the opening 1.5630’s to trade into the Tokyo session pressing the 1.5650 levels in quiet trading, EURGBP cross selling continued lightly and was probably the main reason for the Cable to rise with the market dropping in the Tokyo session from the 0.7045 areas to trade for a good period in the 0.7030 areas. Topside offers into the 1.5650 levels are likely light and once through will open the 1.5700 levels and possibly stronger offers from there into the 1.5750 areas however, with those offers spread over 50 pips momentum could see the market struggle but not be deflected from a stronger rise. EURGBP bids are likely to make an appearance on any test through the 0.7000 and could also weigh on the Cable at that point and a break through the 0.6980 level could be enough impetus for Cable to push higher but it’s a big if. Downside bids in the Cable see light congestion through the 1.5600 levels and into the 1.5550 areas before opening the market for a test of a weak 1.5500 area and then limited support until the 1.5400 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY drifted lower from the opening just below the 123.40 areas and dipped just below the 123.30 levels; while the BoJ monetary policy was little changed the market quietly rose from the release and pushed towards the 123.50 levels. Topside offers likely to be strong into the 123.80-124.00 area with weak stops likely to be mixed with further offers moving towards the 124.50 levels, a push through the level will open up the potential for strong stops and a move to the 125.00 likely to be a little lighter with 125.50 a stronger level to look at and possibly strong break out plays. Downside light into the 123.00 levels with the market open with a push through the 122.70 areas is likely to see weak stops and the market opens up properly on a push through the 122.50 areas with stronger bids into the 122.00 levels however, it does open up another test lower although margins are likely to be in a better shape than they were last week.
- AUD: The Oz opened around the 0.7450 levels before the market drifted lower in front of China numbers touching through the 0.7440 levels before the release and another quick rise to push towards the 0.7490 levels before drifting back to trade around the 0.7460 levels. Topside offers into the 75cent levels a push through the level is likely to continue to find resistance with the Oz economy more likely to be forefront of traders’ minds rather than how well China is going and we will have to wait for a follow through of today’s numbers translated into the Oz numbers. A break through the 0.7540 levels is likely to see weak stops and the market then quickly opening for a test to the 76cent. Downside bids are spread trhough to the 74cent level with those bids increasing as the market again pushes through the figure and increasing, with a possibility of any move tempered however, a push at the 0.7320 area and break down again opens the potential for a larger move.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
EUR:
IMF Says Greece Needs Deeper Debt Relief than Europe Considering
About 50 German Coalition Deputies Oppose Greek Package: Bild
EUR/JPY:
Asahi Life Asset Could Sell Euro as Greece Turmoil Subsides
JPY:
Japan Govt. to Forecast FY16 Real Growth of 1.7%, Nikkei Says
Bank of Japan Keeps Record Stimulus, Trims Inflation Outlook
Japan Assn Says Insurance Ban on Shipping Iran Oil to Be Lifted
Japan Diet Committee Approves Bills Expanding Military Role
CNY:
China’s Economy Grew 7.0% in 2Q Y/y; Est. 6.8%
China Stats Bureau Spokesman Says Govt. Debt ’Controllable’
State Researcher Sees More Stable China Economy in 2H: CCTV
China June Fiscal Revenue Rises 13.9% on Year to 1.53t Yuan
China 1H Property Dev. Investment Rises 4.6%
About 60% Analysts Expect A-Shares to Gain in 3Q: Securities News
China Said to Plan Opening Panda Market to More Foreign Firms
USD:
Fed’s George Says She Thinks It’s Time For Fed to Raise Rates
AUD:
Australia July Consumer Sentiment Falls 3.2% M/m to 92.2
NZD:
Auckland Property Asking Price Rose 3.5% in June: Trade Me
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Jul A -3.20% | P -6.90%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Jun A 10.60% | C 10.20% | P 10.10%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Jun A 6.80% | C 6.00% | P 6.10%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Jun A 11.40% | C 11.20% | P 11.40%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Y/Y Q2 A 7.00% | C 6.80% | P 7.00%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Jun C -8.8K | P -6.5K
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Jun P 2.30%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M) May C 5.50% | P 5.50%
09:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ZEW (Expectations) Jul P 0.1
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M May P -21%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Jun C 0.30% | P 0.50%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Jun P -1.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Jun C 0.10% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Jun P 0.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Jul C 3 | P -1.98
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Jun C 0.20% | P -0.20%
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Jun C 78.20% | P 78.10%
14:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision C 0.75% | P 0.75%
14:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Bank of Canada Releases Monetary Policy Report
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 0.4M
18:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Federal Reserve Beige Book
Harry Hindsight                  Â
- EUR: A quiet session for the most part through the Asian session with the market drifting away from the opening levels around the 1.1000 areas to trade just below the 1.0980 level before steadily recover, with most of the follow through into Tokyo being late coming shorts, the move into the London session saw the market back to the opening levels with again early sellers taking the market down into the 1.0970 levels without doing any significant damage, the Euro started to move higher helped by EURGBP shorts covering into the UK numbers and the Euro made it to the 1.1040 levels with the cross pushing some 35 pips higher. Euro’s then struggled into the NYK session with UK’s Cameron stating that temporary funding should be from the Eurozone funds and not the European funds two distinct areas, this had little effect on the Euro however, the EURGBP dropped quickly and left the pair weak through the session. US retail sales figures did little to inspire people to buy the USD and the market for the Euro made its highs after the number to trade to the 1.1080 levels however, this quick spike soon corrected and the pullback was deeper and the market dropped back to the opening levels for a long quiet run to the close moving around the 1.1010 levels for a finish not far from the opening.
- GBP: A slowly drifting Cable from the opening 1.5490 areas saw the market dipping to the 1.5480 areas before moving into the grey hours, early sellers had only limited impact moving into the London session and the release of the CPI numbers on the low side of expectations also did little to surprise, comments by PM Cameron on the subject of funding Greece, Carney’s speech post numbers on the turning point for inflation to start rising and the renewal of EURGBP shorts saw the Cable quickly move to the 1.5580 levels before holding the area as the offers checked the market, the move into the NYK session though provided fresh buying and the move higher saw weak stops through the 1.5600 levels and although the market did trade back from the 1.5630’s the rest of the session saw the market again moving to finish the day close to the 1.5640’s.
- JPY: Periods of choppy movements through the session initially saw the USDJPY rising above the 123.70 levels with reasonable buying into the Tokyo session, the initial mode soon disappeared and the market returned to the opening 123.40 areas and quietly moving to the London session ticking only slightly higher, early selling into the grey hours saw the market drop to the 123.20 levels quickly but looked more like a single ticket move before reversing the move, the move from there to the NYK session saw the market struggle around the 123.30’s and then the US numbers and a shock retail sales number bringing into doubt the rate rises that some would like into the 3rd And although the market pushed through the 123.00 level the market bounced off the level and returned to the 123.40’s, from this point as with the other markets the pair remained in a tight range finishing just below the opening levels.
- AUD: The Oz slowly but surely moved off the lows into the Tokyo session, pushing from the 0.7390 levels the market saw weak stops triggered through the 0.7410 levels before holding the rest of the session around the 0.7420-30, the move into the London session only improved a little with the rang increasing to the 0.7430-40 levels before the release of the US retail sales number and a spike to the 0.7480 areas before settling back to the 0.7450 levels where the market traded for the bulk of the NYK session.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Jun A 1.80% | P 0.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Jun A 10 | P 7 | R 8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Jun (F) A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Jun (F) A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Jun A -0.10% | C 0.20% | P -0.80%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Jun A -6.10% | P -6.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jun A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jun A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y Jun A 0.80% | C 0.90% | P 0.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M Jun A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y Jun A 1.00% | C 1.00% | P 1.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input M/M Jun A -1.30% | C -0.80% | P -0.90% | R -1.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input Y/Y Jun A -12.60% | C -11.80% | P -12.00% | R -12.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output M/M Jun A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Y/Y Jun A -1.50% | C -1.50% | P -1.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core M/M Jun A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core Y/Y Jun A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y May A 5.70% | C 5.90% | P 5.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M May A -0.40% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jul A 29.7 | C 30 | P 31.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Jul A 63.9 | C 60 | P 62.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jul A 42.7 | C 51.1 | P 53.7
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Jun A -0.30% | C 0.30% | P 1.20% | R 1.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Jun A -0.10% | C 0.60% | P 1.00% | R 0.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Jun A -0.10% | C 0.30% | P 1.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories May A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.40%
Good Luck,
Andy
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