Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 124.133 | EURUSD 1.08751 | AUDUSD 0.74051 | NZDUSD 0.65097 | USDCAD 1.29612 | USDCHF 0.95783 | GBPUSD 1.56095 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USDJPY: Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.23 | 124.00
EURUSD: Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0904 | 1.0873
GBPUSD: Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5638 | 1.5603
USDCHF: Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9581 | 0.9561
AUDUSD: Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7419 | 0.7404
NZDUSD: Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.6543 | 0.6509
USDCAD: Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2973 | 1.2955
EURGBP: Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69758 | 0.69648
EURCHF: Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.04283 | 1.0411
For Today
- EUR: A steady rise higher over the course of the session with no real strength showing, limited volumes with what appears to be light profit taking and short covering moving into the weekend, moving from the opening around the 1.0875 area to push weakly above the 1.0900 levels before drifting back as the market runs to the Tokyo lunch. Topside offers into the 1.0920 level are likely to be light with likely weak stops not appearing until an attempt to the 1.1000 areas however, there is likely to be some congestion around the area before opening up for a return to the 1.1100 levels. Downside bids light to the 1.0850 levels with bids likely to extend to the 1.0800 areas with better bids likely, market although ok with the current situation and the real economics taking over with US rate rise talks and ongoing QE by the ECB however, the rhetoric continues on the good and bad of the bailout negotiations and those that were so vocal about how the Greeks needed to control their affairs have now jumped over the fence to talk on the subject of the injustice of the situation.
- GBP: Cable moved quietly through the early part of the session trading around the opening 1.5610 levels before lifting higher with the Euro with the market moving quickly towards the 1.5640 levels before drifting to the 1.5630 in a thin market. Topside offers light through the 1.5650 levels and likely to increase as the market moves through towards the 1.5700 areas with plenty of congestion over the next 50 pips or so. EURGBP having broken the pre 2008 levels technically opens up a deeper move and affords the Cable little protection for the moment. Cable downside is light through the 1.5600 levels with better strength into the 1.5550 however, there is possibility of weak stops through the area and an opening to test through to the 1.5450 levels
- JPY: The USDJPY made a weak attempt higher having opened around the 124.15 levels to push lightly through the 124.20 areas and still meeting resistance to the rise, the failure to push higher then saw EURJPY selling as the market lightens into the weekend and the USDJPY steadily drifted through to below the opening and holding the 124.05 areas. Topside offers continue through the current highs with possible weak stops through the 124.30 levels and then offers likely to increase to the 124.50, those offers are likely to continue however, 124.80 onwards is likely to be strong as with last time with break out stops above 125.00 less likely to be so strong. Downside bids light into through 124.00 areas but stops are likely to be mixed in with continuing light bids into congestion around the 123.50 levels,
- AUD: A quiet day for the Oz like the rest of the market really with the opening around the 0.7405 level setting the lows and a gradual move towards the 0.7420 levels, Topside light offers into the 0.7440 areas likely to continue through to 0.7460 with a possibility of stops in a mixture of orders, a break above the 0.7460 areas will only see a short gap before further offers begin to appear in a run to the 0.7490 areas and strong offerings which have capped the market this week, a push through will likely see some stops appear and a possible push to beyond 0.7550 areas before again facing offers. Downside bids remain into the 0.7350 levels however, through the level there is a chance of some decent option barriers appearing in the mix and although looking technically weak the run to the end of the day could be dull at best.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
IMF:
Lagarde stated Euro-member states don’t support debt haircuts
Lagarde stated Greek parliament approval of deal is encouraging
Lagarde stated Grexit plan has been taken off the table
JPY:
Japan to set aside $32B for growth measures in next year’s budget
EUR:
ECB, Eurogroup give Greece breathing space after Athens vote
ECB, says Greek crisis has shown Eurozone is imperfect, fragile
ECB presses ahead with QE, promises more action if necessary
Eurogroup agrees in principle to start new bailout talks with Greece
Germany’s Schaeuble casts doubt on chance of Greek bailout success
CNY:
China’s Li says Beijing can deal with risks to economy
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Conference Board Leading Index May A 0.20% | P -0.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Jun C 1.09M | P 1.04M
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Jun C 1.11M | P 1.25M
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jun C 0.30% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jun P 0.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Jun C 0.20% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Jun P 1.70%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jun C 0.30% | P 0.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jun P 0.90%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC CPI Core M/M Jun C -0.10% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC CPI Core Y/Y Jun P 2.20%
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Jul (P) C 96.5 | P 96.1
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: A steady drift lower over the course of the day, trading from the 1.0960 highs drifting back through the 1.0950 opening levels and testing briefly through the 1.0920 levels during the Asian session before finding sufficient support to hold the market up. News that the Greek govt. had agreed to demands from the Eurogroup and the bailout looks favourable to go forward for the moment, and this news was responsible for the initial attempts lower. The move into the grey hours and the saw another attempt however the market again moved off those lows to push to the opening levels and then selling moving into the London session pushing through to the 1.0900 levels and struggling to hold the level, no relief through the CPI numbers or trade balance with them being pretty neutral over all, and the market eventually pushed through the 1.0900 level triggering weak stops on the break through 1.0880 levels into the NYK session and then a weaker Philly survey saw the USD weaken and the Euro push to the 1.0920 levels before again drifting off and holding the 1.0880 levels to the close in quiet trading.
- GBP: Cable drifted through the session with EURGBP cross playing more of a part in its movements than normal, dips lower from the opening 1.5640 levels in Asia saw the Cable testing the 1.5610 levels before moving into the London session and a strong reaction to EURGBP breaking through the 0.6990 level with Cable pushing to above the 1.5650 levels, once the EURGBP selling subsided the Cable drifted back to the 1.5610 levels holding into the NYK session, the continuing pressure on the Euro dragged on the GBP and the push through the 1.5600 levels saw weak stops and a quick move to the 1.5560 levels before the release of the US data helped the Cable to recover and a push back to the 1.5620 levels, the market continued to chop for a few hours however, as the session in NYK moved on the movement became less pronounced and settled to trade around the 1.5610 levels.
- JPY: Another steady rise for the USDJPY moving from the opening 123.80 levels saw the first attempt to the 124.00 level fail into the Tokyo session and the market drift steadily lower with limited volume and EURJPY selling driving the steady decline to the opening levels, the move into the grey hours pushed the market back to 123.90 and the London session kept the pressure up for a gradual push to the 124.00 levels and the final break through occurred once the NYK session opened however, the market was unable to break the 124.20 levels and the market again returned to sub 123.90 levels and then a secondary push and a holding pattern just above the 124.10 areas into the close.
- AUD: The Oz recovered over the day having attempted a move to test to the 0.7350 levels a couple of times as AUDJPY carry held its levels in a rising USDJPY, the move into the London session saw some steady buying and weak stops pushing the market above the 0.7390 levels. The market continued to rise steadily through London with minor selling into the NYK session before US numbers allowed the market to continue rising and a push to the 0.7440 before running out of momentum and a slow drift to the 0.7410 levels and a long end of session holding those levels.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business NZ Manufacturing Index Jun A 55.2 | P 51.5 | R 52
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q2 A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P -0.30%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Jul A 3.40% | P 3.00%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y May A -1.80% | C 1.90% | P 1.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) May A 21.2B | C 22.3B | P 24.3B | R 23.9B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M Jun A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jun (F) A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Jun (F) A 0.80% | C 0.80% | P 0.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision A 0.05% | C 0.05% | P 0.05%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) May A -5.45B | C 10.23B | P 12.94B | R 16.73B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 11) A 281K | C 282K | P 297K | R 296K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Survey Jul A 5.7 | C 11.5 | P 15.2
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Jul A 60 | C 59 | P 59
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows May A $93B | P $53.9B
Good Luck,
Andy
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