Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 119.898 | EURUSD 1.13143 | AUDUSD 0.71214 | NZDUSD 0.64171 | USDCAD 1.32946 | USDCHF 0.95479 | GBPUSD 1.54648 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 120.37 | 119.82
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1357 | 1.1310
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 136.415 | 135.88
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7153 | 0.7107
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.6471 | 0.6435
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3305 | 1.3266
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0821 | 1.07825
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9546 | 0.9513
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5508 | 1.5459
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73275 | 0.73025
For Today
- EUR: A quieter session so far with the market lifting off the 1.1300 from the opening and trading slowly to the 1.1345 levels, equity markets remained stable with very little to surprise the market and a lack of data and news . Light bids into the 1.1300 levels and possibly through to the 1.1280 levels before the market opens to possibly better bids into the 1.1250 area however, a push through the levels is likely to see very little support appearing in until the market starts to move towards last week’s range top, with stronger bids likely around the 1.1150 levels. Topside is likely to be fairly light on offers with 1.1450 a possible short term offering area with limited potential for a short squeeze, a push through the level will likely see weak offerings into each sentimental level, so 1.1500, 1.1550 etc.
- GBP: A quiet and steady move off the opening levels pushing through the session to test above the 1.5500 areas and then trading for several hours around the levels. Downside bids into the 1.5450 areas puts the bids around at the bottom of the 1.5450-1.5650 levels from the past few weeks, a push through the level opens light bids into the 1.5400 areas and then and opening to the ranges from June, topside offers light through to the 1.5600 areas with possible short term types willing to fade the areas from there to 1.5650 levels.
- JPY: After the strong rally yesterday, the market again flirts with the 120.00 areas pushing from the opening to just below 120.40 before Tokyo moved in to sell the market back through the 120.00 level but never really moving conclusively in either direction. Kuroda reiterates his commitment to the quantitative easing to achieve inflation targets as soon as possible, which did little for the market. Topside offers light into the 120.40 areas with a push through likely to see only limited gains but with the ability to push higher with the resistance possibly as weak as the buying, however, having dropped so deeply the market is more likely to have deleveraged rather than added short positions so the market may be a little nervous about a sudden move higher, with that said light offers are likely to be concentrated around the sentimental values of 121.00/122.00 any push beyond that may see some stronger resistance moving to the 123 levels with real term levels at the previous weeks holding arear above 124.00. Sooner or later the market will decouple from its attachment to the Equity market movements at which point the downside levels could be exposed however, given the deleveraging that went on the downside while looking attractive is likely to see investors willing to test their toes in the water with light bids through the 119. 50 areas extending to 119.00 a push through the 118.70 will expose some weak stops attached to the buying and the 118.00 will become the focus of attention, with weakness likely beyond that point.
- AUD: Again a quiet session for the Oz with the market for the moment looking comfortable with the current levels, early trading moved around the 0.7120 levels in tight trading before the release of the Kuroda commentary giving the Oz a little boost to push briefly through the 0.7150 areas and then slowly drifting back to the opening levels and triggering small weak stops to test into the 0.7110 levels as the market approaches the grey hours. Downside bids lighter than previously with the better bids likely to be seen below yesterday’s lows and extending to the 0.7040 areas a push through the level is likely to see stronger bids appearing with the possible technical support from ranges in the 2008-2009 period providing some ideas otherwise once through those levels the downside is open to the double bottom of that period and a large move. Topside offers into the 0.7140-60 areas for the moment are containing any move over the past 36hrs a move through the 0.7160 level is likely to see weak stops and the market opening for a test to the 0.7240-60 levels and then further stops opening up a move to stronger offers into the 0.7320-40 areas.
Overnight News
JPY:
BOJ’s Kuroda Says His Price Target Can Be Achieved
Kuroda Says Abenomics Has Corrected Excessive Yen Appreciation
Kuroda Says Not Concerned About Currency War, Is No Currency War
BOJ’s Kuroda Says There Are No Plans Now for Further Easing
Japanese Sold Net 273.8 Billion Yen Overseas Debt Last Week
JPY/CNY:
BOJ’s Kuroda Says Yuan Determined by Markets Is Good for World
TRY:
Turkey Early Elections Prolong Policy Indecision, Moody’s Says
NZD:
N.Z. to Weigh Consumer Benefit Before Using Anti-Dumping Duties
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y Jul C 4.90% | P 5.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP (Annualized) Q2 (S) C 3.20% | P 2.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q2 (S) C 2.00% | P 2.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 22) C 275K | P 277K
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Jul C 1.50% | P -1.80%
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: Early buying from the opening around the 1.1520 levels ran into offers through to the 1.1560 levels and into the Tokyo session with the USD then starting a steady recovery the deeper into the Asian session the market moved, grey hours saw the market dipping through the 1.1500 levels and although there was very little stop action the market pushed into the 1.1470 areas before a small rally into the official opening in London, with equity markets recovering further through the session the market started to reverse some of its previous moves and the Euro slowly dropped pushing through 1.1460 and triggering weak stops accelerating the drop to the 1.1420 levels the bids failed to hold the market and although it slowed it the move into the NYK session saw the movement continue trading down through the 1.1400 levels and touched the 1.1360 areas and as with the earlier trading the market seemed to be linked by the hip with the equity movements as the S&P dipped through the 1,900 levels the Euro pushed back to the 1.1440 levels before the markets again reversed and this time the Euro traded steadily lower over the remainder of the session top push to below 1.1300 triggering stops before bouncing back above the level into the close.
- GBP: Trading quietly through the Asian session for the most part around the 1.5700 levels, trading slowly lower as the market moved into the London session drifting steadily lower through the course of the day as the Euro dragged on the GBP, with the cross EURGBP remaining in a 0.7300-60 range through the day, with only minor pauses along the way the market saw little in the way of stops until after the NYK opening and once the market had moved deep into the session the market broke through the 1.5550 levels and quickly dropped to below the 1.5500 levels and started to bottom out and hold above the 1.5450 levels in a quiet evening session.
- JPY: If you overlaid the USDJPY and S&P 5min chart you’d be hard pushed to see any inconsistencies between the two and through the session the USDJPY’s movement, from the opening in Sydney the market bounced around spiking in early trading to above the 119.40’s before drifting lower to push to the lows through the 118.50 areas, fixing demand turned the market and the market reversed to the opening levels and then moved steadily higher pushing to the 119.20 levels and light profit taking and then through to push steadily to the 119.80 areas into the grey hours, London saw very little action and the market held nervously in the 119.40-60 areas, the push into NYK saw the market drop back quickly as equity selling moved in on the opening in NYK and USDJPY followed to the 119.00 areas before the market started to recover again and the back end of the session saw the USD rallying strongly and the USDJPY pushed steadily higher and through to the 120.00 levels into the close.
- AUD: The Oz is now trapped between a rock and a hard place with bids into the 71 cent level the market was unable to push lower as the Chinese situation impacting on the Oz more than the rest and for much of the session the market ranged around the 0.7120 levels with an early test of the 71 cent level holding in Tokyo and pushing back to the mid 0.7145 levels and although we tested to the topside several times it was unable to push through that level, the move into the London session saw very little reprise and it wasn’t until the market moved into the NYK session did the downside break and the market pushed through the 71 cent level triggering weak stops and a tumble to the 0.7070’s before holding and slowly returning through the session to the 0.7120 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Jul A -649M | C -600M | P -60M | R -194M
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Jul A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Work Done Q2 A 1.60% | C -1.50% | P -2.40% | R -0.80%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator Jul A 1.64 | P 1.68 | R 1.61
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Reported Sales Aug A 24 | C 18 | P 21
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Jul A 2.00% | C -0.40% | P 3.40% | R 4.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation Jul A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 0.80% | R 1.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -5.5M | C 1.0M | P 2.6M
Good Luck,
Andy
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