Andy Harrison
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.246 | EURUSD 1.11073 | AUDUSD 0.7157 | NZDUSD 0.66301 | USDCAD 1.37269 | USDCHF 0.99317 | GBPUSD 1.43423 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11293 | 1.10988
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.382 | 112.723
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.43510 | 1.43163
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71602 | 0.70938
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99360 | 0.99115
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.37830 | 1.37215
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.66490 | 0.66128
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77717 | 0.77328
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 125.950 | 125.364
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10351 | 1.10215
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For Today
- EUR: Having opened around the 1.1110 areas the market moved into the Tokyo session initially testing the downside 1.1100 levels before starting a steady drive towards the 1.1130 levels and there it remained through the session holding in a very tight range in quiet trading. Topside offer light through the 1.1140-60 areas with the offers likely to increase as the market moves into the 1.1200 areas with a push through the 1.1240 levels likely to see a mixed bag of stops and offers with the offers likely to be slightly stronger however, this does open up the 1.1300 areas and possibly stronger offers all likely to be dependent on the commentary today about the negotiations between the UK/EU. Downside bids through the 1.1100 levels and into the 1.1070 areas before weakness is likely to appear with stops through the levels and a push through the 1.1050 areas likely to open the downside for a deeper test through the sentimental 1.1000 areas,
- GBP: Cable opened around the 1.4340 levels and drifted through the session with steady selling to take the market below the 1.4320 levels before slowly recovering into the latter part of Asia and into the grey hours, Topside offers light through the 1.4400 area and only mildly stronger through 1.4450 then from then on the offers start to appear and while not so strong they are possibly plentiful and likely to continue through the 1.4550 areas. Downside bids into the 1.4250 levels however, better bids are more likely into 1.4200 and through to the lows of the year.
- JPY: Holding the 113.20 levels through from the end of NYK the market briefly thought about the topside before the Tokyo session started with the market pushing towards the 113.40 levels before drifting steadily lower through the early part of Tokyo to test into the 112.80 levels and holding in a quiet session to only start to rise as the market approached the grey hours. Topside offers a little light until the 113.80 areas then those offers likely to increase a little with weak stops likely to appear on a move through the 114.20 levels, while through this level the market is likely to find little resistance a push through the level sees possibly only small gains and further offers building from the 114.670 area. Downside bids into the 112.80 levels are likely to be light with better bids through the 112.50 levels and then into the 112.20 areas however a push through those light bids will again see the 111.00 open for another test and the downside then becoming vulnerable to the 110.00 levels and possibly rhetoric flowing from the BoJ and MoF.
- AUD: With no news the market saw a steady drift from the opening and traded quietly lower and away from the opening 0.7160 areas, the move into the Tokyo session saw weakness appearing as positions were closed for the weekend with the EU/UK negotiations and Japanese safe haven flows moving through a quiet session, comments from RBA’s Edwards on a preferred rate of exchange closer to the 65cent level were sufficient to underline that weakness and the market fell back to test the 71 cent levels into early Tokyo and then a slow climb back towards 0.7120 into the grey hours, Downside bids light through the 71 cent level and the market is likely to see only slightly stronger bids into the 70 cent levels, whether the market takes the target level seriously remains to be seen and a push through the 70 cent level is likely not to have changed too much with bids from the 0.6980 level likely to extend a good distance with stronger bids still from the 0.6950 areas still likely to dominate the downside. Topside offers into the 0.7150 levels and continuing through the level with the aforementioned comments possibly weighing on the market now, however, this is not likely to stop a strong rally and a push through to the 0.7170-0.7200 levels is likely to hold stronger offers.
Overnight News
GBP:
BoE Weale adds voice to unease over market rate view
Cameron pleads for credible deal to keep Britain in the EU
EUR:
Germany’s business outlook still favourable Finance Ministry report
France’s Hollande says no country must have an EU veto
USD:
Fed’s Williams sees gradual US rate hike path as best course
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Dec A 0.90% | C -0.30% | P -1.00% | R -1.10%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI M/M Jan C -0.30% | P -0.50%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI Y/Y Jan P -2.30%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Jan C 0.80% | P -1.00%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Jan C -13.8B | P 6.9B
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jan C -0.10% | P -0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jan C 1.20% | P 0.70%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Jan C 0.20% | P 0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Jan C 2.10% | P 2.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Dec C -0.70% | P 1.70%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Dec C -0.50% | P 1.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jan C 0.00% | P -0.50%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jan P 1.60%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC CPI Core M/M Jan C 0.20% | P -0.40%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC CPI Core Y/Y Jan P 1.90%
15:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Feb (A) C -7 | P -6.3
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: A reasonably quiet day with the market range bound through the Asian session holding 1.1120 levels, the topside was tested early in the session with Tokyo buying into the Tokyo session to test to above the 1.1140 levels and hold in the area through to the grey hours, early trading saw the market attempt the 1.1150 levels before drifting back off into the London opening with Brexit negotiations starting during the day and the ECB minutes showed very little on specific policy options and just showed discussions on policy needed to be reviewed etc, we have a problem but let’s hurry up and wait see if it disappears, the market showed little reaction to the news and with the current account numbers showing only a small change the market was limited with selling to the 1.1100 levels tidy and the slip below finding bids sufficient to slow the move and a drift through the session progressively moving through the 1.1100 level from the lows around the 1.1075 level, the move to the close saw the market again attempting the 1.1120 levels however, the limited volumes saw the market barely holding the 1.1100 areas.
- GBP: The Cable held through the Asian session trading from the opening just below 1.4300 and rising slowly to test through the level eventually, the move into the grey hours saw the market making the lows with a quick stab lower to the 1.4250 levels before bouncing back again and moving through into the London session not so far from unchanged, Current account numbers and ECB monetary policy saw the Euro weaken a little and with that weakening the EURGBP cross fell back from the 0.7800 levels and tested to the 0.7710 area with Cable rising quickly to the 1.4370 levels and testing the 1.4400 area briefly, from there though the negotiations in Brussels between the EU and UK continued and the market drifted with very little in the way of direction filtering through and a quiet close around the 1.4340 levels.
- JPY: USDJPY saw early gains pushing to the 114.30 areas before the Tokyo session started however those gains were quickly reversed and the market tested to the 113.80 levels before trading through the Asian session quietly and in a tight range, the market eventually broke the 113.80 levels into the grey hours but recovered as soon as the London session opening and then the market drifted steadily lower through the session with only the EUR and GBP showing minimal signs of life, however, weakness through the 113.40 levels saw some bidding holding the 113.20 areas and into the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7180 levels and unable to push through the offers the movement into the Tokyo session saw the market drop quickly on the release of the employment numbers and a slight weakening, the Oz dropped quickly to the 0.7140 levels and tested through the level on 3 separate occasion through the session with the same effect remaining for the most part in a very tight range for the day between 0.7140-70 and a close around the 0.7160 leaving the market only slightly below the opening.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Inputs Q/Q Q4 A -1.20% | P 1.60%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Outputs Q/Q Q4 A -0.80% | P 1.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (JPY) Jan A 0.12T | C 0.06T | P 0.04T
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Jan A -7.9K | C 12.9K | P -1.0K | R -0.8K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jan A 6.00% | C 5.80% | P 5.80%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jan A 1.80% | C 1.90% | P 1.60%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Jan A -5.30% | C -5.40% | P -5.90%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Jan A 3.51B | C 2.67B | P 2.54B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Dec A 25.5B | C 22.3B | P 26.4B | R 26.9B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Sales M/M Dec A 2.00% | C 0.10% | P 1.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Survey Feb A -2.8 | C -2 | P -3.5
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 13) A 262K | C 275K | P 269K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Jan A -0.20% | C -0.20% | P -0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 2.2M | C 3.2M | P -0.8M
Good Luck,
Andy
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