Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.694 | EURUSD 1.09566 | AUDUSD 0.7352 | NZDUSD 0.67482 | USDCAD 1.34055 | USDCHF 0.99236 | GBPUSD 1.4175 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09604 | 1.09353
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.875 | 113.210
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.41840 | 1.41532
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73760 | 0.73408
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99362 | 0.99124
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34331 | 1.34089
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.67542 | 0.67179
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77340 | 0.77212
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.712 | 123.931
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08703 | 1.08571
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For Today
- EUR: Another quiet session through Asia with NFP to come later in the day the early part of the day saw the market drifting from the opening 1.0960 levels to test to the 1.0930’s before gradually retracing the losses to move into the grey hours above the 1.0950 levels. Topside light offers into the 1.1000 areas and then there is likely to be stronger offers from there into the 1.1040-60 areas before the market sees weak stops and the potential to challenge the 1.1100 levels, however, with the talk of potential easing on the 10th the market is likely to limited until the NFP is out of the way, Downside bids light through the 1.0900 levels and that weakness is likely to continue through the day however, as with the topside the NFP is likely to define the day with the possibilities of commentary for the upcoming EU monetary policy, downside through the 1.0850 levels will likely see better bids and a push through the 1.0830 levels will still likely run into stronger bids before weakness reappears through the 1.0780 areas.
- GBP: A gradual drift lower from the opening 1.4170 areas and pushing towards the 1.4150 levels in light trading with no real data for the day the market is likely to see little movement until the NFP is out, the one spanner for the works could be more negative commentary on Brexit (whichever side you listen too), Topside offers into the 1.4200 levels with a push through the 1.4220 areas likely to see light stops and the market opening to weakness to the 1.4250 areas with the market likely to open the 1.4250-1.44 range from last month becoming a target, downside bids into the 1.4100 levels are likely to be very light with the bids possibly stronger only on a push into the 1.4000 areas however, there is at the moment possibly nothing to hold a strong move until the 1.3900 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY traded weakly through the early part of the session with the USDJPY slipping from the early highs around the 113.75 areas as the market adjusted to the coming NFP and weekend, the market dropped back in the first 2 hours to trade again into the 113.20 areas with comments from Kuroda limiting any further negative rate cuts with the likelihood of further QE to be the route taken, this saw the USDJPY move back to the opening levels in a short period of time, and after a brief pause move steadily to the 113.90 levels into the grey hours. Topside offers through the 114.00 levels and into the 114.20 areas with the possibility of weak stops through the 114.30 areas, possibility of stronger offers into the 114.80-115.00 levels with stops likely to be building above the areas and the market open to a larger move and the 117.00 area as the next target. Downside bids light into the 113.00 areas with a push through the level and into the 112.70 levels likely to see weak stops appearing and the market again testing the 112.00 areas, and of course all dependent on the NFP numbers later in the day.
- AUD: Struggling in the early part of the session with a tight range unable to push beyond the 0.7360 levels into the Tokyo opening before drifting below the 0.7350 areas as AUDJPY selling moved in, having tested to the 0.7340 levels the market again started a steady rise and again more to do with the carry trade than anything else testing into the mid 0.7370’s before holding quietly into the grey hours with 0.7360-70 defining the range. Topside bids into the 0.7400 are likely to be substantial with opening sellers joining limited profit taking however, a strong push through 0.7420 likely to see weak stops and the potential to push through the congestion and opening a push to the 75 cent level and a possible challenge of the ranges from summer last year. Downside bids are likely to be spread around the 72 cent areas with one suspects very little from the current levels, a move through the 73 cent area may see some weak stops however, for the moment the Oz is being buffeted by outside influences and while the market may be moving in the wrong direction for the RBA it’s a steady movement and for the moment is limited in its impact, With that in mind thought the market is not likely to see that much in strength until far deeper and through the 71 cent levels.
Overnight News
JPY:
BOJ Kuroda: Not Considering Lowering Rates Further at This Time
Japan Nominates Makoto Sakurai to Bank of Japan Board
BOJ Nominee Sakurai Will Follow Kuroda-line, LDP’s Yamamoto Says
Japan’s Jan. Cash Earnings Rise 0.4%; Est. +0.4%
Abe Aide Sees 90% Chance of Japan General Election This Year
Abe Says Japan Will Suspend Landfill Work on Henoko Base
CNY:
PBOC’s Yi Reiterates Yuan Rate Link to Currency Basket: News
China SAFE’s Pan Says Forex Control ’Not Necessary’: Sec. News
PBOC’s Pan Says Govt. Doesn’t Direct Offshore Yuan Market: STCN
PBOC’s Lu Proposes Adding Financial Stability in Macro Policy: Sina
China Official Says Moody’s Outlook Revision ’Lacks Vision’: News
China May Encourage Share Sales to Fund Overseas M&A: Sec. Journal
NZD:
N.Z. Seven-Month Budget Surplus NZ$724m Larger Than Forecast
English Says NZ Dairy Industry Needs to Cut Costs: BusinessDesk
AUD:
Australian Jan. Retail Sales Rose 0.3% M/M; Est. 0.4% Gain
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Jan A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y Jan A 0.40% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
09:10Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail PMI Feb P 48.9
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Feb C 198K | P 151k
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Feb C 4.90% | P 4.90%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Feb C 0.20% | P 0.50%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Jan C -43.5B | P -43.4B
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Labour Productivity Q/Q Q4 C 0.20% | P 0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CAD) Jan C -1.0B | P -0.6B
15:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Feb P 66
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: A quiet session through Asia with the market dipping to the 1.0860 levels before rising back to the opening levels around the 1.0870 into the grey hours, a better than expected retail sales number for the Eurozone and the market managed a steady rise through to the NYK session pushing through the 1.0910 areas, mixed results for the US numbers with weaker Labour costs weakening the USD further and the market rising steadily for the Euro testing to the 1.0970 levels and then holding the 1.0960 levels to the close.
- GBP: Cable traded quietly through the Asian session holding around the 1.4080 areas for the most part and pushing higher into the London opening to push through the 1.4100 level briefly, better PMI figures in Europe saw the EURGBP rising again with the market from close to 0.7700 to the 0.7750 in a steady push higher into NYK this forced the Cable back to the 1.4040 levels however, the US numbers did little for the USD and the Cable again pushed to the 1.4100 levels and the move through caught the weak shorts and the market quickly moved to the 1.4140 levels before meeting only token resistance to the move, after several hours the breakthrough of the 1.4160 level again saw weak stops and the market spiked to the 1.4190 levels before drifting back off as the London session came to a close, a final run to the topside again found sufficient offers to hold the market from going through the 1.4200 levels and the market slipped to a close around the 1.4180 areas.
- JPY: Opening around the 113.50 levels the market through the Asian session saw some strong buying in early trading to take the market back towards the 114.00 levels, after holding for awhile the market moved through the level but was unable to penetrate to far above the 114.20 levels and ran into the grey hours holding those levels, London were quick sellers however, the market was only able to push to the 113.80 areas and held the 114.00 levels into the NYK session, US numbers on the weak side then sent the market back to the opening levels and the market became rather stagnant through the NYK session drifting a little higher to the close.
- AUD: Onwards and upwards, nothing particularly strong however, the market has ground steadily through the previous highs and the push through the 73 cent levels was quiet and steady in early Asia, the move into the grey hours had seen several hours of 0.7300-0.7320 and once the London session opened the limited movement continued with a steady push through to the 0.7370 levels over the course of several hours, even the weak US numbers had very limited impact and only the resistance into the 74 cent level turned the market and caused the pair to run to a drifting close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Jan A -2.94B | C -3.22B | P -3.54B | R -3.52B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Services Feb A 51.2 | C 52.6 | P 52.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Feb A 53.8 | C 52.7 | P 53.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Feb (F) A 49.2 | C 49.8 | P 49.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Feb (F) A 55.3 | C 55.1 | P 55.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Feb (F) A 53.3 | C 53 | P 53
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Feb A 52.7 | C 55.1 | P 55.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jan A 0.40% | C 0.10% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Feb A 21.80% | P 41.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Non-Farm Productivity Q4 (F) A -2.20% | C -3.30% | P -3.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q4 (F) A 3.30% | C 4.80% | P 4.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 27) A 278K | C 271K | P 272K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Feb A 53.4 | C 54 | P 53.5
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders Jan A 1.60% | C 0.80% | P -2.90%
Good Luck,
Andy
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