Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 112.624 | EURUSD 1.10107 | AUDUSD 0.74386 | NZDUSD 0.67814 | USDCAD 1.34091 | USDCHF 0.99573 | GBPUSD 1.42163 |

LMAX Highs and Lows 6am

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.10211 | 1.09675

USDJPY                 112.758 | 112.410

GBPUSD               1.42196 | 1.41776

AUDUSD              0.74394 | 0.74124

USDCHF               0.99839 | 0.99538

USDCAD               1.34468 | 1.34045

NZDUSD               0.67502 | 0.67166

EURGBP               0.77472 | 0.77333

EURJPY                 124.034 | 123.433

EURCHF                1.09610 | 1.09489

 

For Today

• EUR: Another quiet session with the move through into the Tokyo session drifting from the opening 1.1010 levels pushing to the 1.1000 level and then steady Euro selling moving in from the Tokyo opening to take the market gradually to the 1.0970 levels with very little going through. Topside offers through the 1.1050 areas with a push through the 1.1060 levels seeing little until the 1.1080 areas and into the 1.1100 area, with the possibility of weak stops and the market then open to stronger offers into the 1.1140-60 areas. Downside bids light through the 1.0950 areas and the weakness through there is likely to continue into the 1.0900 areas with better bids into the 1.0850 levels.
• GBP: Cable as with the Euro drifted from the opening testing down through the 1.4200 levels from the opening close to 1.4220 and only finding support into the 1.4180 areas, Topside offers through the 1.4270 areas and likely to strengthen as the market pushes towards the 1.4300 levels a push through that level will likely see light stops and the market opening for a test to the 1.4400-50 areas before better offers reappear. Downside bids into the 1.4150 areas likely to see weak stops through the level and the market opening to a test below the 1.4100 areas as the market weakens and possibly key areas much further away.
• JPY: A very narrow range for the USDJPY however, the market was not able to push back higher with the market edging in pre-Tokyo to the 112.80 levels before drifting off as cross JPY selling saw the USDJPY drift from the highs to test below the 112.50 levels and close to 112.40. Topside offers likely to be weak into the 112.80-113.00 levels with possibly better offers still building into the 113.20 levels before the market opens to the topside and nothing major until the 113.80-114.00 areas, Downside bids likely to be steady into the 112.40-112.00 levels however, a push through the 111.80 areas opens a quick move through to the 111.00 areas and possibly stronger bids appearing.
• AUD: Early cross/JPY selling into the Tokyo session saw the Oz drop back from the 0.7435 levels to test towards the 0.7410 areas again before finding minor support sufficient to move the market back to those opening levels into the grey hours, Topside offers light through the 0.7440-60 areas and seeing strength likely from the 0.7470 areas onwards with those offers likely increase the closer it moves to the 0.7500 levels, a push through the level though will likely find stops appearing and weakness through to the 76 cent level and a possible quick squeeze. Downside bids light through the 74 cent level and a move lower will likely struggle for support with little seen until close to the 73 cent level.

Overnight News

USD:

Clinton Wins Mississippi Democratic Primary

Trump Wins Mississippi Republican Primary

Trump Wins Michigan Republican Primary

Sanders Scores Upset Win Over Clinton in Michigan Primary

JPY:

Japan Sees M&A Opportunity to Boost Oil, Gas Assets Amid Rout

CNY:

China’s Economy May Be Stabilizing, OECD Leading Indicator Shows

PBOC Pushing for Consolidated Bill Trading Exchange: Sec. News

CNY/USD:

China’s Wang Yi, Kerry Discuss Bilateral Ties over Phone: Xinhua

KRW:

N.Korea’s Kim Says Nuclear Warheads Have Been Standardized: KCNA

AUD:

Australia March Consumer Confidence Falls 2.2% M/M to 99.1

Australia Treasury Review Finds Forecasters Struggle With Shocks

Australia Jan. Home-Loan Approvals Fall 3.9% M/M; Est 3% Fall

Australian GDP Shows Resilience to External Shocks, Moody’s Says

NZD:

NZ’s English Has Long-Term Confidence in Dairy Industry Outlook

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

23:30     AUD       Westpac Consumer Confidence Mar A -2.20% | P 4.20%

23:50     JPY         Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Feb A 3.10% | C 3.20% | P 3.20%

0:30        AUD       Home Loans Jan A -3.90% | C -2.80% | P 2.60% | R 2.90%

6:00        JPY         Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Feb (P) A | P -17.20%

09:30     GBP       Industrial Production M/M Jan C 0.50% | P -1.10%

09:30     GBP       Industrial Production Y/Y Jan C 0.10% | P -0.40%

09:30     GBP       Manufacturing Production M/M Jan C 0.20% | P -0.20%

09:30     GBP       Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jan C -0.70% | P -1.70%

15:00     CAD       BoC Rate Decision C 0.50% | P 0.50%

15:00     GBP       NIESR GDP Estimate Feb P 0.40%

15:00     USD       Wholesale Inventories Jan C -0.20% | P -0.10%

15:30     USD       Crude Oil Inventories P 10.4M

Harry Hindsight              

• EUR: A very slow day with the Asian session keeping close to the 1.1020 areas through to the London session were limited pre London buying saw the market pushing to above the 1.1040 before slowly drifting back through the 1.1020 levels through the early part of London to test to the 1.1000 areas, with German Industrial production showing a strong number countered by an unchanged Eurozone number, with the Euro testing higher again as the market moved into NYK session and testing towards the 1.1060 areas, this however, was the high for the day and with that the market slipped back to test the lows with very low volumes, testing through the 1.1000 levels to make the lows for the day.
• GBP: Trading quietly through the Asian session the market drifted from the 1.4265 trading down to the 1.4250 levels and holding in that area into the grey hours, the market saw early Europeans selling lightly before early London move in and take the market to above the 1.4270 levels into the official opening, while the range increased the general movement of the market saw the market drifting again in a steeper decline to test into the NYK session through the 1.4200 areas and holding around the 1.4170 level and the reversal of EURGBP cross buying helping the Cable to move back above the 1.4200 levels but with little conviction.
• JPY: While the rest of the market was very limited in range the USDJPY started the Tokyo session falling back from the highs just above the 113.50 levels and quickly pushing lower with JPY buying from local banks doing the early damage and the market tested in the first couple of hours down to the 112.80 levels before running out of steam and finding limited buyers off those lows, the market then ranged around the 113.10-112.80 levels through the London session and into the NYK session where the selling again found JPY buyers and the market testing to the 112.50 levels and finishing the day in another tight range to finish just off those lows.
• AUD: With JPY strength the Oz found itself on the back foot in early trading, moving through into the Tokyo session drifting from the 0.7470 levels and holding the 0.7450 before dropping off to the 0.7420 areas in the first couple of hours, the market then marked time through into the London session and the Oz found some strength in the lead to the NYK session returning towards the opening highs however, after NYK sellers and another recovery the market again started to drift lower and although the market was unable to push back to the lows it did end the day lower on the day with very little to protect it from the poor CNY trade balance.

Yesterday’s premiership results

NZD       Manufacturing Activity (4Q) A -1.90% | P 4.20% | R 3.60%

JPY         GDP Q/Q Q4 (F) A -0.30% | C -0.40% | P -0.40%

JPY         GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 (F) A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%

JPY         Current Account (JPY) Jan A 1.49T | C 1.66T | P 1.64T

GBP       BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Feb A 0.10% | C 0.40% | P 2.60%

AUD       NAB Business Confidence Feb A 3 | P 2 | R 3

CNY        Trade Balance Feb A $32.59B | C $50.75B | P $63.29b

JPY         Consumer Confidence Index Feb A 40.1 | C 42.2 | P 42.5

JPY         Eco Watchers Survey: Current Feb A 44.6 | C 47.5 | P 46.6

CHF        Unemployment Rate Feb A 3.40% | C 3.50% | P 3.40%

EUR        German Industrial Production M/M Jan A 3.30% | C 0.50% | P -1.20% | R -0.30%

CHF        CPI M/M Feb A 0.20% | C -0.10% | P -0.40%

CHF        CPI Y/Y Feb A -0.80% | C -1.10% | P -1.30%

EUR        Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%

CAD       Housing Starts Feb A 213K | C 181K | P 165.9k

CAD       Building Permits M/M Jan A -9.80% | C -2.20% | P 11.30% | R 7.70%

Good Luck,

Andy

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